Country Risk Service Canada 1st Quarter
The Economist Intelligence Unit, January 2013, Pages: 17
The Conservatives hold an absolute majority in parliament. The government's majority status should lead to a more stable political environment and easier passage of legislation. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the Conservative government to remain in office for the entirety of its term until late 2015. The general government balance will remain in deficit, but the public finances are healthier than in other large economies, and the deficit is expected to decline at a moderate pace. The Bank of Canada (BOC, the central bank) will remain cautious over monetary tightening until the outlook for the global economy is clearer, but we expect a degree of tightening to begin in late 2013. We estimate real GDP growth of 2% in 2012, and forecast slightly lower growth in 2013. Prospects for 2014-17 are solid. The high indebtedness of the household sector will hold back consumption spending, however. The Canadian dollar is vulnerable to periodic changes in global risk appetite. The current account will stay in deficit during the forecast period, reflecting a strong loonie.
Nine candidates have registered for the leadership contest of the Liberal Party. Now that the sign-up deadline has passed, the contest will start in earnest.
The government has approved two high-profile foreign takeover bids of domestic energy companies. The purchase of Nexen by a Chinese state-controlled firm, China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), aroused particular political disquiet about foreign control of Canadian energy resources. In response, the government will tighten investment controls on energy investments of this kind.
Country Risk Service Canada 1st Quarter
Canada at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast
Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk
Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability
Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch
Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations
Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends
Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy
Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth
Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation
Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates
Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector
Key risk indicators
Ratings summary
Quarterly indicators
International assumptions summary
Economic structure
Public finances
Exchange rates, interest rates and prices
Financial sector
Current account
Foreign payment and liquidity indicators
External trade
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