Country Risk Service Belgium 2nd Quarter

  • ID: 2140152
  • April 2013
  • Region: Belgium
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
1 of 3

A six-party coalition government headed by Elio Di Rupo was finally formed in December 2011, almost 18 months after the general election. Tension between the two linguistic communities will persist and have an impact on political stability. The hardline separatist New-Flemish Alliance (N-VA) will exploit its position as the main opposition party to boost its popularity further. The coalition's programme of deficit-reduction measures will not be sufficient to eliminate the budget deficit in the forecast period, and government debt will rise above 100% of GDP in 2013-14. Real GDP declined by 0.2% in 2012 and The Economist Intelligence Unit forecasts a slightly harsher contraction in 2013. The economy will then return to average growth of 1.5% per year in 2014-17. Major downside risks stem from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. Inflation averaged 2.6% in 2012 and is forecast to fall sharply in 2013, before recovering to 2.3% on average in 2014-17.

According to an opinion poll released in early April, the N-VA saw its popular support fall slightly, although from a very high level (about 33.6%). We continue to expect the N-VA to perform well in the 2014 elections.

According to new data from the National Bank of Belgium (the central bank), Belgium's budget deficit stood at EUR14.9bn in 2012, equivalent to 3.9% of GDP, compared with 3.5% of GDP in 2011. We continue to forecast an improvement in 2013, but expect the government's target of 2.2% of GDP to be missed.

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
2 of 3

Country Risk Service Belgium 2nd Quarter

Belgium at a glance: 2013-17
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2013-17: Political stability

Central scenario for 2013-17: Election watch

Central scenario for 2013-17: International relations

Central scenario for 2013-17: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2013-17: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2013-17: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2013-17: Inflation

Central scenario for 2013-17: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2013-17: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
3 of 3
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


  • Quick Help: This country profile will be emailed to you The country profile is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.


If you have a more general question about our products please try our



Our Clients

  • Alghanim Industries
  • Siam Cement Public Company
  • Barclays Bank PLC.
  • Naver Corporation
  • ING Group
  • Sasol Limited