Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 57
The Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Azerbaijan's petrochemicals industry.
In 2011, petrochemicals and downstream industries reported stellar growth as the industry enjoyed an influx of fresh investment and strong demand. The chemicals industry was one of the strongest non-oil industrial segments for the year, with 36% growth, while rubber and plastic output rose 25%.
The expansion of the petrochemicals sector in Q312 and beyond will be closely linked to the performance of Azerbaijani methanol producer AzMeCo, which is planning to export about 90% of its output when it completes its US$360mn plant in Q113. The plant will have a capacity of 560,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), raising methanol production in Azerbaijan to 720,000tpa. The remainder of AzMeCo’s output is for domestic use and it will be employed to bolster the domestic non-oil industry, leading to the production of acetic acid (165,000tpa), formaldehyde (18,000tpa) and melamine (15,000tpa). A fertiliser project is also planned at AzMeCo’s Karadagh facility, with capacities of 255,000tpa ammonia and 500,000tpa urea.
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan Republic (SOCAR) is also planning two fertiliser plants, with 700,000tpa of urea capacity each – one in Azerbaijan and one in Georgia. Construction is due to begin in mid-2013, with completion due by end-2016. Azerbaijan is aiming to raise its fertiliser exports to 1mn tpa.
Azerbaijan is in 10th and sits at the bottom of BMI’s proprietary Central and Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings, with a score of 32.7, 6.6 points behind Bulgaria. Azerbaijan’s score could rise if plans for a new integrated petrochemicals complex come to fruition, but this is unlikely to come onstream before 2018 at the earliest. Azerbaijan’s considerable energy reserves and rising gas output have meant petrochemicals capacity has been overlooked, largely owing to a poor business environment, which has deterred investors. However, there are signs that things are changing for the better, as the government is making a concerted effort at restructuring the sector.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Azerbaijan Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Global Petrochemicals Overview 7
Petrochemicals Market Overview 7
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 7
Financial Results 11
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 11
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 12
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 12
European Petrochemicals Overview 21
Azerbaijan Market Overview 26
Table: Azerbaijan’s Petrochemicals Sector – Cracker Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016 (‘000 tpa) 26
Table: Manufacture Of Petrochemicals Products, 2000-2010 (‘000 tonnes) 27
Industry Trends And Developments 28
Upstream Activities 30
Petkim Privatisation 32
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Azerbaijan Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Industry Forecast Scenario 38
Table: Azerbaijan’s Petrochemicals Sector, 2008-2016 (‘000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 38
Macroeconomic Outlook 41
Table: Azerbaijan – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 43
Company Profiles 44
Azerkimya 44
State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) 45
Glossary Of Terms 48
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 48
Country Snapshot: Azerbaijan Demographic Data 49
Section 1: Population 49
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 49
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 50
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 50
Table: Education 50
Table: Vital Statistics 50
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 51
Table: Employment Indicators 51
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 1999-2004 (US$) 51
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 52
BMI Methodology 53
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 53
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 53
Cross Checks 54
Business Environment Ratings 55
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 55
Weighting 56
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 56
Azerkimya , State Oil Company of Azerbaijan (SOCAR) ,
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