Thermal Power in Ukraine, Market Outlook to 2020, 2012 Update - Capacity, Generation, Regulations, Power Plants, Companies
- Language: English
- Published: July 2012
- Region: Ukraine
Business Monitor International's Ukraine Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's power industry.
Ukraine’s dependence on Russia for gas is a problem, as it exposes the country to import volatility and ongoing price disputes – exacerbated by the government’s power price subsidies. Domestic sources cannot fuel all gas-fired generation, so Ukraine wishes to boost nuclear and renewables capacity. Investment is unlikely to reach the required level while sales prices for power are low, although the IMF is forcing through tariff increases.
In March 2012, Ukraine’s largest private coal and power producer, DTEK, won a bid to buy a 25% stake in electricity producer Dniproenergo, its fourth purchase of a power company since December 2011. DTEK, owned by the country’s richest man, Rinat Akhmetov, was the only bidder, the property fund said. DTEK in January bought 40% of power distributor Donetskoblenergo and 45% of electricity producer Zakhidenergo. In December 2011, it acquired a 25% shareof state-owned Kyivenergo.
Key trends and recent developments in the Ukrainian electricity market include:
.. During the period 2012-2021, Ukraine’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 2.63%, reaching 227.7 terawatt hours (TWh). Driving this growth is an annual 3.50% gain in gas-fired generation and a 6.43% annual rise in the use of renewables, offsetting a 6.93% average decline in oil-fired electricity supply.
.. Following an assumed 4.8% increase in real GDP in 2011 BMI forecasts average annual growth of 4.35% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to fall from the current level of 45.2mn to 42.8mn during the period, but net power consumption looks set to increase from 148.8TWh to 188.0TWh in 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 2.37%.
.. Ukraine has a much more aggressive view of power consumption trends than BMI. An increase in electricity demand to 307TWh by 2020 and to 420TWh by 2030 is envisaged by the state, and government policy is to continue supplying half of this from nuclear power. This will require 29.5 gigawatts (GW) of nuclear capacity in 2030, up from 13.2GW at present. The scale of the increase is at odds with likely economic growth and population needs. Furthermore, the cost of the capacity expansion programme is likely to be beyond Ukraine’s capabilities.
.. Thanks partly due to the forecast rise in net generation, near-term growth of which struggles to match the underlying demand trend. Ukraine’s power supply surplus of around 5.3TWh could shrink over the medium term, but then increase appreciably over the longer term. An unchanged percentage of transmission and distribution (T&D) losses – at more than 12% – works against higher exports. The theoretical net export potential by 2016 is put at 3.5TWh, which could have more than tripled by 2021.
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Ukraine Power SWOT
Global Industry Overview
Regional Industry Overview
Industry Forecast Scenario
Ukraine Snapshot (Macro)
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Ukraine Forecast Scenario
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2013-2021
Table: Ukraine Trade Data And Forecasts, 2008-2016
Table: Ukraine Long-Term Trade Forecasts, 2013-2021
Key Policies/Market Structure
Regulation And Competition
Key Projects Database
Table: Major Projects – Power Plants & Transmission Grids
CEE Power Regional Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: CEE Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100)
Ukraine Power Risk/Reward Ratings
Glossary of Terms
Table: Glossary of Terms
Methodology And Sources
Power Industry - Data Methodology
Generation and Consumption Data
Electricity Generation Capacity Data
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators