United Kingdom Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 128
Business Monitor International's United Kingdom Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United Kingdom's telecommunications industry.
BMI's View:
BMI had expected another quarter of strong growth in the mobile market in Q411 given the uptick in the market in Q311 and the traditionally strong Q411. However, the market grew more slowly than we envisaged. BMI believes the poor performance in Q4 was largely due to the discounting of inactive prepaid customers, particularly at Vodafone and O2, coupled with less aggressive pre-Christmas marketing campaigns than the operators have instigated in previous years.
As a result, the UK mobile market expanded by just 1.0% in 2011, against earlier forecasts of 1.9% growth, and we have amended forecasts to 2016 accordingly. We forecast growth will pick up slightly in 2012 but expect the market will grow at an annual rate of no more than 1.5% over the forecast period, bringing the penetration rate to 125% by 2016. The slow subscriber growth in Q411 and lower forecasts have also affected our estimates and forecasts for the UK's 3G market and average ARPU levels. We now estimate the UK market supported about40.1mn 3G users at the end of 2011, making up 52.8% of all mobile users. While we expect 3G subscriber numbers to continue to grow strongly, we now forecast 3G subscribers will account for nearly 74% of the entire mobile market in 2016.
As we had expected, promotional activity to attract subscribers in the usually strong pre-Christmas trading period led to a fall in ARPU in Q411, but ARPU also declined more swiftly than we forecast. We continue to expect promotional offers stemming from subscriber acquisition strategies will lead to lower ARPUs. This trend could potentially be magnified by the negative events in the eurozone and a potential double-dip recession in the UK. Through to 2016, BMI forecasts the decline in blended ARPU will decelerate as improvements in subscriber mix, as well as increases in revenue from 3G and 4G services and VAS through smartphone proliferation, will be countered by price competition.
Ofcom has now released fixed-line data for Q311, showing there were some 33.2mn fixed-lines in the UK at September 2011, more than we had estimated despite continued subscriber losses at incumbent BT. We have therefore revised our estimate for YE2011 up slightly and now believe there were 33.16mn lines in the market, a penetration rate of 53.1%. We continue to expect the market will shrink over the forecast period to 2016 as customers switch to mobile and VoIP services. However, we expect fixed-line numbers and penetration will remain relatively high given the availability of and customer demand for ADSLbased broadband and bundled services. We now forecast that penetration will dip below 50% in H214 and reach 48.9% in 2016.
With a highly competitive market, an independent regulator, small geography, high urbanisation and good growth prospects, the UK remained at the top of our regional Business Environment ranking, extending its lead over second-ranked France. A welcome development in Q112 was Ofcom's decision to allow Everything Everywhere to refarm its 1800MHz spectrum for the launch of LTE 4G services, paving the way for services to be launched before the end of 2012.
WHY BUY THIS REPORT
- Benchmark BMI's Independent 5-Year Telecommunications Industry Forecast for United Kingdom to test other views - a key input for successful budgeting and strategic business planning in the United Kingdom telecommunications market.
- Target Business Opportunities & Risks in United Kingdom's Telecommunications Sector through our reviews of latest industry trends, regulatory changes, and major deals, projects and investments in United Kingdom.
- Exploit Latest Competitive United Kingdom Telecommunications Intelligence & company SWOTS on your competitors and peers through company rankings by sales, market share, investments and leading products and services.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
UK Mobile Sector SWOT
UK Fixed-Line Sector SWOT
UK Broadband Sector SWOT
UK Political SWOT
UK Economic SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
Western Europe
Table: Western Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q
UK
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Industry Trends – Mobile Sector, 2009-2
Mobile ARPU
Table: Industry Trends – Mobile ARPU Sector, 2009-2
Fixed-Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed-Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: UK Mobile Market, Q
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Data
Table: UK Mobile Market Overview
Table: O
Table: Vodafone
Table: Everything Everywhere
Table: Hutchison 3G
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Smart Meter Race Is On
UK
Table: UK Smartphone Users (000s) and Smartphone Penetration, Q208-Q
VAS Timeline
Table: VAS Timeline
Fixed Line
Table: Fixed Line Numbers By Operator, 2010-2011 (‘000)
Broadband
Table: UK Broadband Market By Technology ('000)
Pay-TV
Threats To The Establishment
Wireless Broadband
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments
Table: Wireline Developments, 2008-2
Table: BT
Table: Virgin Media
Table: BSkyB
Table:TalkTalk
Regulatory Environment
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In The UK
Background & Regulatory Bodies
Regulatory Issues
Competition
Regulatory Development
Table: Proposed average Mobile Termination Rates (pence per minute)*
Industry Development
Competitive Landscape
Market Overview
Table: Key Players – UK Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators' Financial Indicators
Company Monitor
Huawei Focuses On Devices And Cloud Services For Western Europe
Table: Vendors' Financial Performance (US$mn), 2009-2
Operator Profiles
BT
O2
Vodafone
Everything Everywhere
T-Mobile (Everything Everywhere)
Orange (Everything Everywhere)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed-Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
BMI Telecoms Industry Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- BT
- O2
- Vodafone
- Everything Everywhere
- T-Mobile (Everything Everywhere)
- Orange (Everything Everywhere)
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