- Language: English
- Published: June 2012
- Region: Russia
Morocco Autos Report Q2 2012
- Published: April 2012
- Region: Morocco
- 69 Pages
- Business Monitor International
Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's automotive industry.
After two consecutive years of strong growth in 2010 and 2011, BMI believes that Russian new vehicles sales are poised for a moderate 2012. There are already signs of growing caution among Russian households amid high inflation. Moreover, our weakened outlook for the global economy does not bode well for the highly energy-dependent Russian economy, with our Macroeconomic Team forecasting a 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) growth in real GDP during 2012. We believe these factors will restrict total vehicle sales growth to 10.5% y-o-y during the year.
We expect vehicle production to recover to pre-crisis level by as early as 2012. With average growth expected to reach around 12.5% y-o-y thereafter, BMI is currently forecasting Russia's total autos production to reach 3.4mn units in 2016, more than three times the level in 2009. Exports are unlikely to be a major contributor to the sector’s growth, at least in the short term, as we expect much of the increa sein production to be used up in the domestic market. There is scope for Russian autos exports to grow in the longer term as companies with excess capacity will begin exporting to the neighbouring Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) markets.
An increasing preference for foreign brands in Russia and the government's offer of duty-free imports into the country – conditional on a minimum 30% local content level – have prompted US-based General Motors Company (GM) to announce a hefty US$1bn investment, in January 2012, that will go towards doubling its local manufacturing activity by 2015. Its Chevrolet brand cornered just over 9% of the market in 2011, but is closely followed by Volkswagen (VW), which had an 8.6% market share. Competition is tough particularly among significantly smaller market players and carmakers see local production as a way of improving their competitiveness in the market.
Russia continues to lead BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings this quarter, a position which has been reinforced by the resilient 39% y-o-y rise in new vehicle sales in 2011 and expectations of a further 10.5% growth in 2012. More promising is the prospect of a reduction in its autos import tariffs from 30% to close to 15% by 2017 as the country prepares for membership of the WTO. With average annual growth of over 8% yo-y between 2012 and 2016, we expect Russian annual new vehicle sales to surpass those of Germany by 2015. Meanwhile, thanks to government incentives and domestic demand potential, the country is also bracing up for significant production-related investments from international carmakers. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
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General Motors Company (GM)
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
- Taganrog Automobile Plant
- Ford Motor
- General Motors Company (GM)