Annual Reviews of Banking Industry 2012

Banks ROE to remain depressed in the coming years due to structural problems

Bank's ROE contracted 90bps to 15.1% as sharp fall in PSU banks profitability more than offset the impact of improvement in private banks. ROE is likely to remain under pressure on expectation (1) asset quality to deteriorate further in FY13, (2) higher pension costs in anticipation of change in current actuarial assumptions; (3) cash infusion to pension fund required to manage the highly underfunded status of pension plan; and (4) increase in equity base to meet higher capital requirement under BASEL III.

Indian banking industry entered into a new wave of credit cycle on weakening economy

Indian banking industry entered into a new wave of credit cycle in FY12 due to weak economic & fiscal scenario (which will prevent govt to come out with another expansionary policy and increases the risk of crowding out of private invts) and persistent trend of high imported inflation (which has made RBI's stance on tight monetary policy ineffective as it is increasingly hurting growth prospects without necessarily containing “imported” inflation). As a result, gross NPA rose from 2.3% in FY11 to 2.8% in FY12 & restructured assets up from 2.7% in FY11 to 4.9% in FY12. Given our expectation that asset quality will remain under stress in FY13, we forecast banks credit cost to remain at elevated levels in FY13.

ROE of PSU banks to decline due to highly underfunded status of pension fund

Highly underfunded status of pension fund will negatively influence the ROE of PSU banks in the near-term. According to our estimates, PSU banks have a shortfall of Rs. 65,000 cr in pension fund in FY12, which translates to 20% of networth. Considering large number of employees retiring over the next 4 years, pension outgo is expected to surge in the coming years. Consequently, banks would be required to provide cash into pension fund to meet the liabilities, which in turn would negatively impact bank's ROE. In addition, the current pension assumptions of PSU banks appear to be aggressive compared with private sector banks. Thus, any correction made to the pension assumption will negatively impact the profitability in the coming years.

ROE of banks with low core equity to fall by 100-200bps on higher equity requirement

CARE Research estimates domestic banks will be required to raise equity in the range of $40-50bn ($20bn of CET1 + $20-30bn of AT1) over the next six years to meet BASEL III guidelines. Banks ROE is projected to fall by 80-100bps for every 1% increase in core equity ratio, if other things remain constant. Given that most PSU banks core equity ratio is in the range of 6-9%, we believe their ROE is expected to remain under pressure in the range of 100-200bps on account of higher capital requirement. However, banks could increase/decrease their lending/ deposit rate by 15-25 bps, increase fee income or bring in cost efficiency to protect their ROE to fall from the current levels.

SECTION- I CARE Research's OUTLOOK

Outlook

- Profitability of banks in FY12 and outlook for medium-term
- Asset quality trend of PSU and Private sector banks in 4QFY12 and outlook for FY13/14
- Credit cost trend in 4QFY12 and near-term outlook
- Trend of NIM in 4QFY12 and outlook for FY13
- Outlook on operating cost (employee + others) of PSU and Private sector banks
- Impact of change in pension assumption on networth and profitability
- Impact analysis of underfunded status of pension fund on PSU and Private banks
- Impact analysis of BASEL III implementation on banks ROE
- CARE research outlook on credit and deposit growth in FY13
- Impact analysis of Nair committee recommendation on priority sector lending

Credit Cycle

SECTION- II INDUSTRY SECTION
credit cycle (FY97-02)
credit cycle (FY05-07)
credit cycle (FY08-10)
- Current credit cycle (FY12 onwards)

Non Performing Assets (NPA)
- Outlook on asset quality for FY13/14
- Outlook on credit cost for FY13/14
- NPA by sector-wise
Priority Sector
- Nair Committee Report
- Agriculture
- Micro and Small Enterprises
Large and Medium scale Enterprises
- Aviation
- Power
- Road & Ports
- Telecom

Credit & Deposit
- Macroeconomic indicators outlook
- Credit growth outlook for FY13/14
- Sensitivity analysis of credit growth with GDP multiplier and real GDP growth
- Deposit growth outlook for FY13/14
- Sensitivity analysis of deposit growth with credit growth and loan to deposit ratio
Net Interest Margin (NIM)
- NIM outlook for FY13/14
- Impact of interest rate cut on NIM and investment portfolio
Operating Cost
- Comment on cost to income ratio and medium-term outlook
- Impact of full charge of unamortized pension liabilities under BASEL III on ROE
- Impact of change in pension policy on profitability
- Impact of underfunded status of pension fund on ROE
Capital Adequacy
- BIS guidelines on BASEL III
- RBI guidelines on BASEL III
- Impact analysis of implementation of BASEL III on PSU and Private banks
Return Ratios
- ROE outlook for FY13/14

SECTION- V ANNEXURES
Data & Statistics
- Key Macro Economic Indicators from FY01-12
- Sectoral deployment of bank credit from FY06-12
- Key ratio of Schedule Commercial Banks from FY01-11
- Key ratio of PSU banks from FY01-11
- Key ratio of Private banks from FY01-11
- Bank-wise statistics of
- Asset quality statistics of PSU and private banks – FY12
- Quarterly trend of credit cost and NIM – FY12
- Investment Deposit and share of Term Deposit – FY12
- Unamortized retirement liabilities of PSU banks - FY12
- Estimated underfunded status of pension plan - FY12
- Pension assumption of PSU banks and private banks – FY10 & FY11
- Total equity requirement under BASEL III framework

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