Romania Real Estate Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 48
Romania Real Estate Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, real estate associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's Real Estate industry.
After two years of tough austerity, we are expecting a loosening of fiscal policy in 2012. In addition a recent improvement in the labour market (unemployment has dropped from 8.4% in March 2010 to 4.9% in October 2011) and a boost to average wages, which grew by 9.3% year-on-year (y-o-y) in September 2011, should also provide a leg-up to consumer spending into 2012. However, we highlight threats from external pressures – particularly from the eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis – cooling export growth, growing political risk associated with the recent resignation of Prime Minister Emile Boc and the upcoming parliamentary election in November, as likely to weigh on confidence in the medium term, which could hurt investment and economic activity. Yet it is hoped that strengthening domestic demand will act as a sufficient counter weight, shielding the real estate market from any major impacts and allowing it to coast along healthily, but not too excitingly.
In line with such an outlook, we see the real estate sectors we cover – office, retail, industrial – in the cities we analyse – Bucharest, Brasov, Cluj-Napoca – as recording similar stable, though unexciting growth in rental rates in 2012, with supply and demand largely in balance. The retail sector can be considered an outperformer, with internationals constantly entering and many looking to expand their businesses out of the major cities.
Some of the key opportunities currently in the real estate market are:
- EU funding for much-needed infrastructure projects will become available over the next few years.
- New construction projects are beginning to emerge and activity in the building industry will pick up through the rest of the forecast period.
- In July 2011, the Fitch agency raised Romania’s credit rating, bringing it back into the range recommended for investments.
Some key risks to the current real estate market are:
- The country remains financially fragile and the supply of credit may prove a limiting factor to expansion, both in the economy overall and more particularly in the real estate sector.
- The eurozone’s current problems will pose a threat to the country’s investment flows and demand for its exports.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Romania Real Estate/Construction SWOT
Romania Political SWOT
Romania Economic SWOT
Romania Business Environment SWOT
Real Estate Market Overview
Real Estate Market Analysis – Office
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Real Estate Market Analysis – Retail
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Table: Romania Retail Sales Indicators, 2008-2016
Real Estate Market Analysis – Industrial
Supply And Demand
Rents And Yields
Table: Historic Rents – 2010-2011 (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Net Yield, 2011-2012 (%)
Table: Terms of Rental Contract/ Leases - Mid 2011
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Forecast Rents - (EUR per m2/month)
Table: Forecast Net Yield, 2008-2016 (%)
Construction And Infrastructure Outlook
Table: Romania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Table: Romania Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Outlook
Table: Romania - Economic Activity
Business Environment
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Ratings
Table: Real Estate/Construction Environment Ratings
Business Environment Outlook
Table: BMI Business And Operation Risk Ratings
Institutions
Table: BMI Legal Framework Rating
Infrastructure
Table: Labour Force Quality
Table: Emerging Europe - Annual FDI Inflows
Table: Trade And Investment Ratings
Table: Top Export Destinations
Operational Risk
Competitive Landscape
Company Profiles
TriGranit
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Construction Industry
Bank Lending
Real Estate/Construction Business Environment Rating
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
- TriGranit
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