India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast 2012-2020
John Loffman Research, May 2012, Pages: 94
The first edition of the ‘India Coal Power Market Analysis & Forecast 2012-2020’ evaluates the major commercial, policy and supply chain related constraints and challenges facing India’s power sector, in general, and coal power industry, in particular, over the next decade and the opportunities that this presents. Coal power has long since been the dominant baseload power source and default technology choice for capacity expansion in India; but slow development of domestic coal resources, rising domestic and international coal prices, government tariff policy, and the bankability of PPA agreements (among other things) are presenting significant hurdles to timely project execution.
The Modelling & Forecasting Process
The report’s forecast are based on a comprehensive bottom-up project-by-project process, which involved the scrutiny of more than 2,200 coal power project prospects (totalling 880GW). Additionally a bespoke model was developed in order to evaluate the potential for key demand drivers such as GDP, population growth, and energy prices to impact the rate of market development – with top-down high case and low case scenarios presented in addition to the bottom-up base case forecasts.
Supply Chain Analysis & Consultation
The report identifies the major constraints throughout the coal power supply chain and wider value chain and highlights the opportunities that this is presenting. Furthermore our analysis of the market constraints and opportunities is supplement by interviews with key industry stakeholders, who shared their views on the current and future prospects for India’s coal power market and what must be done to address that difficulties it is currently experiencing.
Detailed Forecast Breakdowns
Forecasts for capacity and capex are presented in detail in order to provide clarity to emerging market trends that allows readers to identify the specific areas of opportunity available to them.
1 Executive Summary & Conclusions
1.1 Focus and Coverage of this Report
1.2 India Coal Power Market Introduction
1.3 Macro Factors & Drivers
1.4 Coal Power Value Chain Constraints and Opportunities
1.5 The China Power Generation Market Forecasts
1.6 Conclusions
2 Macro Market Trends & Drivers
2.1 Primary Energy Supply-Demand Drivers
2.2 Electricity Supply-Demand Drivers
2.3 Energy Prices
2.4 Climate Change Drivers
2.5 Energy Supply Security and Related Policy in India & Globally
3 India Power Market Overview .
3.1 India Power Industry History and Development in Brief
3.2 Government Power Market Regulatory Bodies
3.3 Current Market Structure
3.4 India Power Demand Centres
3.5 India Electricity Capacity – Development by Fuel Type
3.6 India End-User Electricity Consumption
3.7 India Peak Electricity Demand Deficit
3.8 Missed Capacity Installation Targets – Explanation & Consequences
3.9 India Transmission & Distribution Infrastructure – Current Situation, Plans and Issues
3.10 India Transmission & Distribution Losses
3.11 The Role of Captive Power in the Indian Power Market – Proliferation, Key Legislation, and Issues .
3.12 12th 5-Year Plan and Longer-Term Government Targets
4 India Coal Power Market Overview
4.1 India Coal Market – Upstream Regulators and Companies
4.2 Coal Production & Consumption
4.3 Coal Prices
4.4 The Role & Importance of Coal Mine Linkages
4.5 Current Coal Shortages & the Future Role of Imported Coal
4.6 India Coal Power Capacity by Ownership
4.7 Renovation versus Decommissioning of Aging Coal Plants
4.8 Key Environmental Legislation & Regulations
4.9 Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS) Potential in India
4.10 Supply Chain Overview and Constraints
4.11 Supply Chain – Industry Survey
5 Project Economics
5.1 Overview of Electricity Tariffs & Policy in India
5.2 Coal Power Tariffs in India
5.3 Historic & Future Overnight Capital Costs of Coal Power Projects
5.4 Levelised Cost of Energy – Comparing Coal Power with Other Technologies .
6 Prospective Projects Data
6.1 Coal Power Projects (Full Database Available for Purchase)
7 Market Forecasts
7.1 Introduction
7.2 The Forecasting Process
7.3 Capex Pricing Procedures
7.4 Forecast Model & Assumptions
7.5 Power Consumption & Capacity Demand Forecasts 2012-2023
7.6 India Coal Power Market Forecasts 2012-2020 (Base Case)
7.7 India Coal Power Market Forecasts 2012-2020 (High Case)
7.8 India Coal Power Market Forecasts 2012-2020 (Low Case)
8 Appendices
8.1 Model Assumptions & Forecast Project Data Quality
8.2 Disclaimer
List of Figures:
Figure 1: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base)
Figure 2: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base)
Figure 3: Global Primary Energy Demand & India Percentage Thereof 1965-2010
Figure 4: Global Primary Energy Demand & India’s Percentage Thereof 1990-2035
Figure 5: Global & India Primary Energy Demand against Population 1965-2010
Figure 6: Global & India Primary Energy Demand against Population 1990-2035
Figure 7: Percentage Change in Global Energy Demand & GDP 1980-2010
Figure 8: Percentage Change in India Energy Demand & GDP 1980-2010
Figure 9: Global Electricity Generation & India Percentage Thereof 1990-2010
Figure 10: Global & India Electricity Generation per Capita 1990-2010
Figure 11: Global Electricity Generation Forecast by Fuel Type 2008-2035
Figure 12: Dubai Fateh 32 API Oil Price 1995-Present
Figure 13: Australia Thermal Coal (12,000-Btu/Pound) Price 1995-Present
Figure 14: Japan LNG cif Price $/Cubic Metres of Liquid 1995-Present
Figure 15: Global Uranium (U3O8) Price 1995-Present
Figure 16: Average Rupee to US Dollar Exchange Rate 2000-Present
Figure 17: Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Energy Consumption
Figure 18: India Primary Energy Production & Consumption 1980-2008
Figure 19: Current Structure of India Electricity Market
Figure 20: India 2011 Population Density Map
Figure 21: Major States/Territories in India by Population Size 2001-2050
Figure 22: India Population Forecast by Region 2001-2050
Figure 23: India 2009-2010 GDP Share by State
Figure 24: Major States/Territories in India by GDP 2009-2010
Figure 25: India GDP by Region 2009-2010
Figure 26: India Power Generation Capacity by Fuel Type Year-End 1980-2011
Figure 27: Percentage Breakdown of India’s Capacity by Fuel Type 2003 and 2011
Figure 28: Percentage Breakdown of India Gross Generation by Fuel Type 2010-11
Figure 29: India Electricity Consumption by End-User 1980-2010
Figure 30: Percentage Breakdown of India’s End-User Consumption 1990 and 2010
Figure 31: India Electricity Peak Demand Deficit 2001-2011
Figure 32: Peak Electricity Demand Deficit in India by Region 2011
Figure 33: Capacity Installation Targets and Achievements 2002-2011
Figure 34: Transmission Lines Installed (ckm)
Figure 35: Terminal & Substation Capacity Installed (MVA or MW)
Figure 36: India Transmission Network – Existing, Approved and Planned to 2012
Figure 37: Electricity Transmission & Distribution Losses in India 1980-2009/10
Figure 38: Percentage Breakdown of CPP Capacity by Owner 2010
Figure 39: India Long-Term Capacity and Consumption Targets 2011 to 2052
Figure 40: Projects Under Construction For Likely Benefit of 12th 5 year plan
Figure 41: Global Coal Prod./Consumption & Proven Reserve Years 1981-2010
Figure 42: India Coal Prod./Consumption & Proven Reserve Years 1981-2010
Figure 43: Global Coal Consumption & India Percentage Thereof 1990-2035
Figure 44: Domestic & International Thermal Coal (12,000-Btu/Pound) Price Comparison 2005-Present
Figure 45: Monthly Coal Stocks at Coal Power Plants March 2008 to April 2012
Figure 46: CIL Coal Production Growth versus Growth in Coal Power Capacity 20002010
Figure 47: Coal Power Capacity by Owner Type – Jan 2005 and Feb 2012
Figure 48: Breakdown of India’s Utilities Capacity by Fuel – Jan 2005 and Feb 2012
Figure 49: Operational Coal Power Units Built Prior to 1990 by Unit Capacity
Figure 50: Comparison of Electricity Production Costs for Selected CCS Options (2002) .
Figure 51: Coal Power Project Equipment & EPC Supply Chain Map
Figure 52: On-Grid Coal Tariffs in Selected States 2011
Figure 53: Capital Cost of Coal Power Plants by Operational Year 2005-2017
Figure 54: Capital Cost of 200-270 MW Coal Units by Operational Year 1986-2013
Figure 55: Capital Cost of 300 MW Coal Units by Operational Year 2009-2012
Figure 56: Capital Cost of 500 MW Coal Units by Operational Year 1986-2017
Figure 57: Capital Cost of 600-660 MW Coal Units by Operational Year 2010-2018
Figure 58: Capital Cost of 800 MW Coal Units by Operational Year 2012-2018
Figure 59: Levelised Cost of Energy for Different Power Technologies in India
Figure 60: Modelling Process Diagram
Figure 61: India Electricity Consumption Forecast by End-User 2003-2023
Figure 62: India Electricity Total Capacity Demand Forecast 2003-2023
Figure 63: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base)
Figure 64: Percentage Breakdown of Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2011 and 2012-2020 (Base)
Figure 65: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base)
Figure 66: Percentage Breakdown of Coal Capex by Unit Size 2003-2011 and 2012-2020(Base)
Figure 67: Coal Expenditure Breakdown by Component 2003-2020 (Base)
Figure 68: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (High)
Figure 69: Percentage Breakdown of Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2011 and 2012-2020 (High) .
Figure 70: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (High)
Figure 71: Percentage Breakdown of Coal Capex by Unit Size 2003-2011 and 2012-2020(High)
Figure 72: Coal Expenditure Breakdown by Component 2003-2020 (High)
Figure 73: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Low)
Figure 74: Percentage Breakdown of Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2011 and 2012-2020 (Low) .
Figure 75: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Low)
Figure 76: Percentage Breakdown of Coal Capex by Unit Size 2003-2011 and 20122020(Low) .
Figure 77: Coal Expenditure Breakdown by Component 2003-2020 (Low)
Figure 78: Base Case Coal Capacity Additions Forecast Project Data Quality 2003-2020 .
Figure 79: Industry Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Figure 80: Agriculture Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Figure 81: Domestic Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Figure 82: Commercial Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Figure 83: Traction & Railways Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Figure 84: “Non Utilities” Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Figure 85: “Other” Consumption Regression Model v Actual Data
Table 1: Summary of Coal Capacity Additions & Capex by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base) .
Table 2: Major Owners/Operators of India’s Coal Power Plants End-April 2012
Table 3: Domestic Annual BTG Manufacturing Capacity 2011-2014
Table 4: Prospective 8000MW Coal Power Plant Projects
Table 5: Prospective 600-660MW Coal Power Plant Projects
Table 6: Prospective 500MW Coal Power Plant Projects
Table 7: Prospective 300-350MW Coal Power Plant Projects
Table 8: Prospective Less Than 300MW Coal Power Plant Projects
Table 9: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base)
Table 10: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Base)
Table 11: Coal Expenditure Breakdown by Component 2003-2020 (Base)
Table 12: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (High)
Table 13: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (High)
Table 14: Coal Expenditure Breakdown by Component 2003-2020 (High)
Table 15: Coal Capacity Additions by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Low)
Table 16: Coal Expenditure by Unit Size 2003-2020 (Low)
Table 17: Coal Expenditure Breakdown by Component 2003-2020 (Low)
Table 18: GDP % Change Forecasts 2012-2026
Table 19: India Population Forecast 2012-2023
Table 20: Oil Price Forecasts 2012-2023
This report focuses on the market for the development and construction of coal power capacity in India – providing complete market coverage, overviews and analysis of commercial and policy related developments and dynamics, project economics and opportunities throughout the value chain in India over the period to 2020. In order to maximise the accessibility of the report, it is written in a way that assumes no reader knowledge of the subject area.
The report’s forecasts are based on a the scrutiny of over 100,000 items of data from our comprehensive in-house India power projects database that includes over 2,200 coal power projects that are currently at various stages of development (i.e. under construction, planned, proposed etc.) and total over 880GW of capacity. The researchers believe the report’s level of depth and detail provides our readers with both an essential and rich source of information, and the confidence to utilise the report’s forecasts and findings to support key business investment and growth strategies.
Chapter 2 covers macroeconomic factors, market specific drivers, and policy factors that are underpinning significant growth in the levels of investment in India’s power generation infrastructure.
Chapter 3 presents a general overview of India’s current power market structure and developments, key government policy, and challenges. While Chapter 4 then goes on to provide a more detailed analysis of the of both the upstream and downstream trends, drivers, challenges and supply chain constraints being experienced within India’s coal power sector. Quotes from industry consultations are also included in this chapter. Chapter 5 provides insight into tariff policy, evaluations of project economics for the different coal power unit sizes, and levelised cost of energy (LCOE) comparisons between coal and other competing power technologies.
Chapter 6 lists some of the major project prospects that are considered in the report’s forecasts. A full database of India’s (coal) power projects can be purchased separately.
Chapter 7 presents our view of the India Coal Power Market for the period 2012-2020, with historic data for 2003-2011 provided as a point of comparison. Forecasts of the capacity that will be installed over this period, the associated capital expenditure (capex) required to bring this capacity online, and detailed capex breakdowns by plant equipment items and project services are provided. Please note that three scenarios are presented (base case, high case, and low case forecasts) based on a range of assumptions relating to long-term GDP, population, and energy price expectations. However, the base case scenario is established primarily on a bottom-up basis, through detailed project-by-project analysis; while the high and low case scenarios are produced on the basis of divergences in end-user demand growth and associated increases and reductions in capacity requirements relative to the base case scenario.
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