South Africa Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 70
Business Monitor International's South Africa Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: With only limited conventional domestic reserves available, South Africa has learned to make efficient use of its natural resources. Synthetic oil production adds nearly 200,000b/d to the country's output, and this figure could exceed 300,000b/d by 2021. With an estimated 13.7tcm of shale gas resources in place, the country could also boost its gas and synthetic fuels output to meet growing domestic demand. Main trends and developments we highlight for South Africa's Oil and Gas sector are as follows:
- South Africa has limited oil reserves, which stand at about 14.9mn bbl, according to 2011 estimates from BMI. We expect this to decline over our forecast period, with 13.5mn bbl expected by 2021. However, BMI expects liquids production to increase from an estimated 208,000b/d in 2011 to less than 328,000 by 2021.
- Consumption of crude is forecasted to rise steadily over the forecast period, broadly in line with GDP growth. We anticipate that domestic demand will rise from an estimated 538,000 b/d in 2011, to hit 600,000 b/d by 2021.
- A significant share of this consumption will be met by synthetic fuels (synfuels) derived from coal-toliquid (CTL) and gas-to-liquid (GTL) processes. Local company Sasol owns the 160,000 CTL Secunda plant and state-backed PetroSA operates the 45,000b/d Mossgas GTL facility, which combined add nearly 205,000b/d to domestic liquids production. Sasol has plans to expand Secunda by another 30,000b/d and has proposed to build the 80,000b/d Mafutha plant. As a result of these plans, we see synfuels production growing from an estimated 176,000b/d in 2011 to 290,000b/d by 2021.
- Although there is significant potential for gas in the west coast's Orange basin and in the onshore shale formations of the Karoo basins, we believe it is too early to adopt an overtly optimistic stance in our forecasts. A moratorium on fracking has put the development of shale resources on hold; even if the moratorium were to be lifted, it would take several years to see large-scale production, which implies that the impact of shale gas could potentially only be felt after the end of our forecast period. With regards to the Orange basin, we believe that the development of gas production could grow much faster and we expect South Africa to produce 3.5bcm of gas in 2012. We forecast that this will increase significantly over our forecast period, reaching 6.8bcm by 2021.
- Bolstered by a macroeconomic growth, infrastructure projects and GTL, domestic gas consumption is set to increase substantially, from an estimated 6.94bcm in 2011 to 13.11 by 2021.
- In terms of infrastructure, there are many ambitious projects proposed, particularly in the downstream sector. The 400,000b/d Mthombo refining complex in Coega epitomises the country's willingness to remain a leader in the sector. South Africa is also hoping to increase its synthetic oil output through Sasol's proposed expansion of the Secunda CTL facility, which would add another 30,000b/d, and the construction of the proposed 80,000b/d Mafutha CTL.
South Africa's dependence on imports leads to high volatility in the country's energy bill. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis clearly pose a downside threat to global demand and prices, which could provide some relief to South Africa in terms of expenditure. We predict that OPEC basket oil prices will increase from an estimated US$107.52 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, providing an upside to our forecasts.
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
South Africa Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Table: Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9)
Table: Global Oil Consumption, 000's B/D
Table: Global Oil Production
Regional Energy Market Outlook
South Africa Energy Market Overview
Table: Upstream Projects Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Oil and Gas Reserves
Table: Industry Summary Data
Table: Industry Summary Data
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
Revenues And Import Costs
Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In South Africa
Refineries In Durban
Other Refineries
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/ Ports
Oil Pipelines
Synthetic Fuels Plants
Table: Synthetic Fuels Plants In South Africa
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings
Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings
South Africa Upstream Rating – Overview
South Africa Upstream Rating – Rewards
South Africa Upstream Rating – Risk
South Africa Downstream Rating – Overview
South Africa Downstream Rating – Rewards
South Africa Downstream Rating – Risks
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players In South African Oil And Gas Sectors
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
Licensing Rounds
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Petro SA
Sasol
Engen – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Total – Summary
BP – Summary
Caltex – Summary
Chesapeake/Statoil – Summary
Rompco – Summary
Others – Summary
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2009-2016
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2014-2021
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2009-2016
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2014-2021
LNG Net Exports, bcm 2009-2016
LNG Net Exports, bcm 2014-2021
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI's Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Petro SA
- Sasol
- Engen
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Total
- BP
- Caltex
- Chesapeake/Statoil
- Rompco
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