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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q2 2012
Description:
Business Monitor International's Uganda Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Uganda's defence and security industry.
Uganda’s defence expenditure is estimated to have risen 19.74% y-o-y in 2010, accounting for 12.9% of government spending. BMI expects growth in the region of 2.33% in 2011, reflecting Uganda’s military commitments and economic growth. Nevertheless, as a proportion of GDP, Uganda’s expenditure remains below that of other countries in the region. In the long term, we expect to see the country make strong economic gains, despite its vulnerability to political insecurity in the surrounding countries. The expected onset of oil production in Uganda in the second half of this decade will likely swell national coffers.
Uganda faces several internal security challenges including the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), the ADF and terrorist threats from Somalia’s al-Shabaab militia, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda. This latter threat is exacerbated by Uganda’s military involvement in Somalia, on behalf of the internationally recognised government in Mogadishu. The battle against the LRA may be entering its last throes, given both US military assistance and the fact that possibly as few as 100 LRA fighters remain operationally active. It remains to be seen how South Sudanese independence and the insertion of US forces will affect the LRA situation. The popularity of the ‘Kony 2012’ internet activist video campaign in early 2012 has reenergised international efforts to capture LRA leader Joseph Kony, who is believed to be in hiding in the Central African Republic, although much of the momentum was already ongoing prior to the activist campaign.
Uganda’s relations with the US have strengthened in recent years, owing to the two countries’ common opposition to al-Shabaab and cooperation in fighting violent Islamist groups in the Horn of Africa. Kampala has also repaired relations with Israel after the low point of the 1970s during the regime of former president Idi Amin. Although Uganda is a major importer of Russian arms and weaponry, we could see Israel emerge as a key supplier in the coming years. International concern over the human rights record of President Yoweri Museveni’s government remains strong, as does condemnation over the prevalence of violent homophobia, believed to be tacitly condoned by the state.
President Museveni was re-elected in 2011, despite anti-government protests attacking food shortages, government profligacy and corruption. Opposition leader Kizza Besigye claimed the election results were fraudulent, but Museveni claimed victory regardless. The Ugandan government has been encouraging oil and gas exploration in the country and, following a series of oil discoveries, Uganda is expected to produce as much as 350,000 barrels per day by around 2018. Oil revenues will likely further cement Museveni’s position, providing policy continuity for investors, although raising questions about Ugandan democracy.
Uganda’s defence expenditure is estimated to have risen 19.74% y-o-y in 2010, accounting for 12.9% of government spending. BMI expects growth in the region of 2.33% in 2011, reflecting Uganda’s military commitments and economic growth. Nevertheless, as a proportion of GDP, Uganda’s expenditure remains below that of other countries in the region. In the long term, we expect to see the country make strong economic gains, despite its vulnerability to political insecurity in the surrounding countries. The expected onset of oil production in Uganda in the second half of this decade will likely swell national coffers.
Uganda faces several internal security challenges including the Lord’s Resistance Army (LRA), the ADF and terrorist threats from Somalia’s al-Shabaab militia, which is affiliated with al-Qaeda. This latter threat is exacerbated by Uganda’s military involvement in Somalia, on behalf of the internationally recognised government in Mogadishu. The battle against the LRA may be entering its last throes, given both US military assistance and the fact that possibly as few as 100 LRA fighters remain operationally active. It remains to be seen how South Sudanese independence and the insertion of US forces will affect the LRA situation. The popularity of the ‘Kony 2012’ internet activist video campaign in early 2012 has reenergised international efforts to capture LRA leader Joseph Kony, who is believed to be in hiding in the Central African Republic, although much of the momentum was already ongoing prior to the activist campaign.
Uganda’s relations with the US have strengthened in recent years, owing to the two countries’ common opposition to al-Shabaab and cooperation in fighting violent Islamist groups in the Horn of Africa. Kampala has also repaired relations with Israel after the low point of the 1970s during the regime of former president Idi Amin. Although Uganda is a major importer of Russian arms and weaponry, we could see Israel emerge as a key supplier in the coming years. International concern over the human rights record of President Yoweri Museveni’s government remains strong, as does condemnation over the prevalence of violent homophobia, believed to be tacitly condoned by the state.
President Museveni was re-elected in 2011, despite anti-government protests attacking food shortages, government profligacy and corruption. Opposition leader Kizza Besigye claimed the election results were fraudulent, but Museveni claimed victory regardless. The Ugandan government has been encouraging oil and gas exploration in the country and, following a series of oil discoveries, Uganda is expected to produce as much as 350,000 barrels per day by around 2018. Oil revenues will likely further cement Museveni’s position, providing policy continuity for investors, although raising questions about Ugandan democracy.
Contents:
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Uganda Political SWOT
Uganda Economic SWOT
Uganda Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Foreign Relations
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
The Karamojong
The Allied Democratic Forces
The Lord’s Resistance Army
2011 Presidential Election
Political Unrest
Anti-Homosexual Violence
New Threats
Terrorism
External Security Situation
Latest Developments
Sudan
Côte d’Ivoire
Central African Republic
United States
Kenya
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Developments
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Uganda’s Armed Forces, 2000-2007 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Uganda’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Uganda’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Debt Relief Initiatives
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Uganda – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
SWOT Analysis
Uganda Political SWOT
Uganda Economic SWOT
Uganda Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, Q212-Q113
Wild Cards To Watch
Security Risk Ratings
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Political Overview
Domestic Politics
Long-Term Political Outlook
Foreign Relations
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
The Karamojong
The Allied Democratic Forces
The Lord’s Resistance Army
2011 Presidential Election
Political Unrest
Anti-Homosexual Violence
New Threats
Terrorism
External Security Situation
Latest Developments
Sudan
Côte d’Ivoire
Central African Republic
United States
Kenya
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
International Deployments
Developments
Market Overview
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Uganda’s Armed Forces, 2000-2007 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated)
Table: Uganda’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Uganda’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated)
Debt Relief Initiatives
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Uganda – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
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