Kuwait Oil and Gas Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 63
Business Monitor International's Kuwait Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kuwait's oil and gas industry.
BMI View:
One of OPEC’s key oil producers, Kuwait’s rise in output will be relatively slow and steady. We see Kuwait producing around 3.5mn b/d by 2021, although a substantial rise in oil consumption will reduce oil available for the export market. We see a faster increase in gas production in the second half of our forecast period, with output crossing 16bcm by 2021. Kuwait will continue to remain a net gas importer and refined products exporter.
We highlight these trends and developments in Kuwait’s oil and gas sector:
- BMI sees Kuwaiti oil production rising from an estimated 2.5mn b/d in 2011 to 3mn b/d by 2017 and then to 3.5mn b/d by 2021.
- The advance of Project Kuwait, an ambitious scheme to enable IOC upstream investment, is critical to boosting oil production given the mature nature of the giant Burgan field.
- Regulatory approval of the long-delayed al-Zour refinery and the Clean Fuels Project will allow Kuwait to significantly boost both production and exports of refined products, including lowsulphur diesel and Euro-4 gasoline.
- Significant non-associated gas in the Jurassic fields in Kuwait’s north must be monetised in order to lessen dependence on gas imports, which we see continuing through to 2021. LNG imports could be supplemented by the re-activation of pipeline imports from Iraq (suspended since 1990).
- We expect Kuwaiti gas production to rise from an estimated 12.3bcm in 2011 to over 16bcm by 2021, with imports rising to around 7.4bcm by the end of our forecast period. Kuwait’s dependence on oil prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our assumptions of a slower growth in China, a faltering recovery in the US and a worsening eurozone debt crisis, clearly pose a threat to global oil demand. We assume OPEC Basket oil prices to fall from US$111.47 per barrel (bbl) in 2012 to US$107.00/bbl in 2013, thus creating a downside risk for the Kuwait’s macroeconomic outlook.
Executive Summary
BMI Industry View
SWOT Analysis
Kuwait Oil and Gas SWOT
Global Energy Market Outlook
Libya Production Update: Main Fields (As Of Jan 9 2012)
Global Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Global Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d)
Regional Energy Market Outlook
Kuwait Energy Market Overview
Table: Kuwait – Upstream Project Database
Industry Forecast Scenario
Table: Industry summary Data
Table: Industry summary Data
Oil And Gas Reserves
Oil Supply And Demand
Gas Supply And Demand
LNG
Refining And Oil Products Trade
Revenues/Import Costs
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecast Scenario
Oil And Gas Infrastructure
Oil Refineries
Table: Refineries In Kuwait
Service Stations
Oil Storage Facilities
Oil Terminals/Ports
Oil Pipelines
LNG Terminals
Gas Pipelines
Gas Booster Stations
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings
Table: Middle East Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Middle East Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players – Kuwaiti Oil And Gas Sector
Overview/State Role
Licensing And Regulation
Government Policy
International Energy Relations
Table: Key Upstream Player
Table: Key Downstream Players
Company Monitor
Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
Chevron
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Total – Summary
Oula Fuel Marketing Company – Summary
Soor Fuel Marketing Company – Summary
Kuwait Energy – Summary
Others – Summary
Table : Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2008-2016
Table : Oil Consumption (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table : Oil Production, (000b/d)2008-2016
Table : Oil Production (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table : Refining Capacity,(000b/d) 2008-2016
Table : Refining Capacity (000b/d), 2014-2021
Table : Gas Consumption, (bcm)2008-2016
Table : Gas Consumption (bcm), 2014-2021
Table : Gas Production, (bcm) 2008-2016
Table : Gas Production (bcm), 2014-2021
Table: Net LNG Exports (bcm)
Glossary Of Terms
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings Overview
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure
Indicators
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Energy Industry
Cross checks
Sources
- Chevron
- Kuwait Energy
- Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC)
- Kuwait Petroleum Corporation (KPC)
- Oula Fuel Marketing Company
- Royal Dutch Shell
- Soor Fuel Marketing Company
- Total
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