The Poland Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Despite numerous challenges, we continue to believe Poland is the most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). While the long-awaited Drug Reimbursement Act introduced in Q112 faced fierce opposition from the public and members of the healthcare profession, and also resulted in volatility of pharmaceutical spending, we maintain our view of positive growth for 2012, projecting 1.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) expansion. Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: PLN33.37bn (US$11.26bn) in 2011 to PLN33.91bn (US$10.72bn) in 2012; +1.6% in local currency terms and -4.8% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast unchanged since Q212.
- Healthcare: PLN111.08bn (US$37.51bn) in 2011 to PLN117.00bn (US$36.99bn) in 2012; +5.2% in local currency terms and -1.4% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast slightly higher since Q212
because of new historical data.
- Medical devices: PLN6.60bn (US$2.23bn) in 2011 to PLN6.85bn (US$2.16bn) in 2012; +3.8% in local currency terms and -2.7% in US dollar terms. Local currency forecast broadly unchanged since Q212.
Risk/Reward Rating: While Poland retains its top spot in our Q312 Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) assessment of the CEE region, its composite score fell by 2.3% quarter-on-quarter. Poland’s pharmaceutical market growth is facing significant challenges in the coming months, largely because of the Drug Reimbursement Act, though we continue to view the country as a regional outperformer over the longer term, supported by large and growing population and healthcare provision improvements. Globally, Poland is 14th out of the 95 markets surveyed in our quarterly assessments, below the Netherlands and above China.
Key Trends And Developments
- In March 2012, Bayer released plans to build a financial and accounting centre for CEE in the Tri-City region of Poland (the three close coastal cities of Gdansk, Gdynia and Sopot). Hiring for the centre, which Bayer aims to complete within 2012, is expected to generate more than 200 jobs. The opening of the regional headquarters is part of Bayer’s strategy that also includes establishing joint-service centres in China and the Philippines and an international accounting office in Leverkusen, Germany.
- The need to contain costs has led to calls by the Polish Federation of Hospitals in March 2012 urging of public and private hospitals to make joint purchase orders for medical equipment, drugs, energy, gas and insurance. The policy is designed to eventually establish a group purchasing organisation to reduce procurement costs by 10-50%. Declarations of accession have been received from 70 hospitals. It is hoped the joint procurement of medical devices and other supplies will enable smaller hospitals to compete with larger hospitals’ purchasing power.
- Hospitals in Poland are facing huge shortages of cancer drugs due to the issues related to procurement. The buying issues developed after Austrian production facilities belonging to Sandoz, the generic pharmaceuticals division of Novartis, had problems at the beginning of April 2012. Sandoz, which is upgrading facilities on a regular basis, purchased the oncology portfolio of Ebewe Pharma for EUR1.1bn (US$1.46bn) in 2009. The upgrading process is causing some difficulties at production facilities, which are feeding into the procurement system.
- A new decree on reimbursed drug prescriptions allows doctors to use the Latin names of drugs or any other applicable names, including trade or chemical names in Polish and English, the Ministry of Health said in April. The statement came after the Porozumienie Zielonogorskie union and the Doctors’ Trade Union of Poland said the ordinance forces doctors to specify the trade name. The ordinance still requires doctors to indicate the level of reimbursement, which applies to specific products rather than a class of products.
BMI Economic View: We forecast Polish real GDP growth to slow from 4.3% in 2011 to 2.5% this year, which is substantially below consensus expectations. Fiscal consolidation and slower investment growth will make Poland more vulnerable to a contraction in the eurozone.
BMI Political View: The government will continue fiscal consolidation despite growing opposition and strains within the government. However, despite some setbacks, Civic Platform (PO) remains the most popular party in the country and the opposition is too divided to attract the majority needed to force a change in administration. PO and its main rival, the Polish People’s Party (PSL), have a history of compromise from the government they formed between 2007 and 2011.
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Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Pharmaceuticals Industry SWOT 7
Poland Political SWOT 8
Poland Economic SWOT 8
Poland Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 10
Poland – Market Summary 15
Regulatory Regime 16
Advertising Regulations 17
Other Regulatory Developments 18
Intellectual Property Regime 18
Intellectual Property Shortcomings 19
Pricing And Reimbursement Regime 20
Pricing Policies 21
Drug Price Inflation 22
Reimbursement Policies 23
Reimbursement Regime Changes 24
Industry Trends And Developments 28
Healthcare System 29
Hospital Privatisation 30
Health Insurance 32
Research & Development 33
Clinical Trials 34
Developments In The Clinical Trials Sector 35
Medical Devices 36
Industry Forecast Scenario 38
Overall Market Forecast 38
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 40
Key Growth Factors – Industry 41
Table: Total Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 44
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 44
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 45
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 46
Table: GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth, 2008-2016 52
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 53
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016 54
Patented Drug Market Forecast 55
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016 56
Generic Drug Market Forecast 57
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016 58
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 59
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 60
Table: OTC Medicne Sales By Subsector, 2007-2010 61
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 62
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016 64
Medical Device Market Forecast 65
Table: Medical Devices Sales, 2008-2016 66
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 67
Competitive Landscape 68
Pharmaceutical Industry 68
Domestic Industry 68
Domestic Company Developments 69
Foreign Industry 72
Foreign Company Developments 73
Pharmaceutical Wholesale Sector 74
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 76
Table: Number Of Pharmacies In Poland, 2004-2009 78
Company Profiles 79
Local Companies 79
Multinational Companies 84
Eli Lilly 86
Gedeon Richter 88
Lek (Sandoz/Novartis) 92
Demographic Outlook 94
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 95
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 96
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 97
Table: Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 97
BMI Methodology 100
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 100
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 101
Ratings Overview 101
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 102
Table: Weighting Of Components 103