South Africa Commerical Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 67
The South Africa Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general.
Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elemens (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (ZARbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At December 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (ZARbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
South Africa Commercial Banking SWOT 7
South Africa Political SWOT 8
South Africa Economic SWOT 9
South Africa Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 14
Regional Outlooks 22
Mobile Money Services: Assessing The Risks To Macro Stability And The Banking Sector 22
Regional Banking Sector Outlook 27
MEA Banking Sector Forecast Overview – Q3 2012 27
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 27
Table: Middle East and Africa Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 28
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 29
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 30
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 31
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 32
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 33
South Africa Banking Sector Outlook 34
Slower But Still Positive Growth Ahead 34
Economic Outlook 37
Table: South Africa – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 39
Company Profiles 40
Absa Bank 40
Table: Stock Market Indicators 41
FirstRand 42
Table: Stock Market Indicators 43
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 44
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 44
Table: Key Ratios (%) 44
Imperial Bank 45
Table: Stock Market Indicators 46
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 46
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) 47
Capitec Bank 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators 49
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 50
Table: Key Ratios (%) 50
African Bank 51
Table: Stock Market Indicators 52
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 52
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 53
Table: Key Ratios (%) 53
Investec 54
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 54
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 55
Table: Key Ratios (%) 55
Teba Bank 56
Table: Teba (ZARmn) 56
Mercantile Bank 57
Table: Stock Market Indicators 58
Table: Balance Sheet (ZARmn) 58
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 59
Table: Key Ratios (%) 59
Al-Baraka Bank 60
Table: Key Statistics For Al-Baraka Bank, 2004-2008 (ZARmn) 61
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 62
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 64
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 65
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 66
Absa Bank , FirstRand , , Imperial Bank , , Capitec Bank , , African Bank , , Investec , , Mercantile Bank , , AlBaraka Bank,
Product Samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW4
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
