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The Developed Asia-Pacific Telecoms Market: Trends and Forecasts 2011–2016

  • ID: 2153994
  • April 2012
  • Region: Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea, Taiwan
  • 77 Pages
  • Analysys Mason Group

Operators in developed Asia–Pacific markets will explore innovative data pricing models for emerging mobile devices including tablets and consoles during 2011–2016, because 75% of mobile net additions will be non-handset broadband connections.

Key trends driving change in the developed Asia–Pacific telecoms markets include: the spread of 4G, which will account for 38% of mobile connections by 2016; the widespread penetration of smartphones, which will become the dominant mobile device in the region by 2013; and the roll-out of national broadband networks and FTTx services, which will generate more than USD18 billon in 2016. Retail telecoms revenue will grow slowly in the region, from USD203 billion in 2011 to USD209 billion in 2016.

This Report provides:
- forecasts of key telecoms market KPIs for the developed Asia–Pacific region
- detailed country-level forecasts for Australia, Hong Kong, Japan, Singapore, South Korea and Taiwan
- discussion of key trends and market drivers for the forecast period, at regional level and by country
- line-by-line forecasts for connections by device type and by technology, revenue, ARPU, voice/data splits, fibre and 4G take-up, and voice traffic (MoU).

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Slide no.



8.Executive summary

9.Retail revenue will grow by less than 3% in nominal terms during 2011–2016, driven mainly by handset data and mobile broadband

10.The overall shift towards mobile services will continue: mobile broadband will account for 41% of broadband connections in 2016

11.Smartphones will account for the majority of handsets by 2013, while 4G SIMs will account for 38% of mobile connections in 2016

12.The penetration of fixed voice connections will decline, but fixed broadband will grow to 33% – half of which will be FTTH/B connections

13.Key findings and implications

14.Key findings and implications: mobile telecoms services [1]

15.Key findings and implications: mobile telecoms services [2]

16.Key findings and implications: fixed telecoms services

17.Market definition and methodology

18.Geographical coverage

19.Key forecast assumptions [1]

20.Key forecast assumptions [2

21.Forecast methodology: our comprehensive telecoms forecast model is supported by a sound knowledge of markets

22.Forecast methodology: we base our forecasts on reported metrics, and insight into market and competitive dynamics

23.Data series definitions: mobile

24.Data series definitions: fixed

25.Regional forecasts

26.Market context: six countries account for 97% of DVAP’s population of 241 million, and 98% of its telecoms revenue

27.Telecoms revenue will increase very little during 2011–2016, with mobile handset-based data revenue compensating for declining voice revenue

28.Retail telecoms revenue growth will lag behind GDP growth during the next five years

29.Mobile penetration had reached 113% at the end of 2011, and will grow to 134% by the end of 2016

30.Growth in mobile connections will come mainly from the addition of new, non-handset-based mobile broadband subscriptions

31.The region already has a high rate of 3G penetration, and 39% of its mobile connections will be 4G by 2016

32.Smartphones will become the most common type of handset during 2013

33.Growth in revenue from mobile handset data services and mobile broadband will outweigh the decline in mobile voice revenue

34.Voice services’ share of mobile service revenue will decline to less than half during the forecast period

35.Growth in demand for mobile voice services will no longer compensate for declining tariffs

36.Despite high fixed broadband penetration rates, considerable growth potential remains – particularly in sparsely populated countries
37. Fibre will become the dominant technology for fixed broadband connections by 2016

38.The number of fixed voice connections will increase little in most countries, and will continue to decline in Japan

39.Total fixed voice traffic will fall, driven by continued declines in MoU per fixed voice connection

40.In the fixed telecoms market, growth in broadband revenue will compensate for the decline in voice revenue in most countries

41.Country forecasts

42.Australia’s mobile market will continue to outpace fixed, but the National Broadband Network (NBN) will provide important growth opportunities

43.4G will have a slow start in Australia, but will be driven by smartphones and mobile broadband

44.Australia’s mobile broadband connections are high and growing, but fewer will substitute for fixed broadband as fibre is rolled out nationwide

45.Handset data services will overtake messaging and broadband as Australia’s second-largest source of mobile revenue after voice

46.Australia’s National Broadband Network promises to significantly improve the availability of fixed broadband

47.Growth in the Hong Kong telecoms market will be dominated by mobile data products, as fixed consumer revenue faces saturation

48.Mobile penetration in Hong Kong is among the highest in the world, because of the intense competition and dynamic demographics

49.Mobile broadband SIMs are the main driver of subscriber base growth in Hong Kong, but smartphone take-up is a more significant trend

50.Handset data will become Hong Kong operators’ most important source of income in 2013, more than offsetting the decline in voice revenue

51.Hong Kong has a strong fixed-line market, and the high take-up of fibre broadband will encourage the move towards VoBB

52.Japan’s telecoms service revenue will hardly change during 2011–2016, but handset data will compensate for declines in other service categories

53.Take-up of LTE in Japan is likely to proceed less rapidly than it did for 3G, which was almost ubiquitous by the end of 2010

54.Japan is shifting from advanced, operator-controlled feature phones to more-standardised smartphones based on Android and Apple iOS

55.Handset data services accounted for 49% of Japan’s mobile service revenue in 2011 and will grow to 54% within the forecast period

56.Japan’s fixed voice penetration rate will continue to decline, while fixed broadband penetration will grow only slightly

57.Service innovation in Singapore’s mature telecoms market will drive growth in handset data and fixed broadband revenue

58.M1 launched limited LTE services in Singapore in 2011: full LTE services, and services from other operators, will follow from 2012

59.Singapore’s mobile operators have heavily subsidised smartphones in order to drive the penetration rate and take-up of data services

60.Singapore’s mobile retail revenue will flatten, but handset data revenue will grow thanks to smartphone penetration and service innovation

61.Singapore’s Next Generation National Broadband Network will shift broadband access and fixed voice connections towards fibre

62.South Korea has a mature broadband market and an advanced mobile market that rapidly adopts new (often home-grown) technologies

63.South Korea’s developed mobile market has a high rate of 3G adoption, but LTE has been delayed for its second-largest operator

64.Growth in the number of mobile connections in South Korea will be primarily from mobile broadband

65.South Korea’s mobile handset data revenue will grow rapidly, but unlimited data plans will cap the potential

66.South Korea has a highly penetrated broadband market, but growth continues in penetration, speeds and IPTV take-up

67.Retail revenue in Taiwan will plateau as growth in broadband and mobile handset data compensates for declining voice and messaging

68.Mobile broadband will continue to have a fairly small impact in Taiwan, but take-up of smartphones will become significant

69.Voice revenue will decline in Taiwan, but the shortfall will be made up by increased use of data services on handsets and data devices

70.There is ample scope for increased mobile penetration in Taiwan, and although 4G will be late on the scene, take-up will be swift

71. Fixed voice access is near-universal in Taiwan, but lines and revenue will continue to grow, as will fixed broadband, especially FTTH/B

72.About the authors and Analysys Mason

73.About the authors [1]

74.About the authors [2]

75.About Analysys Mason

76.Research from Analysys Mason

77.Consulting from Analysys Mason

List of figures
Figure 1: Retail revenue by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 2: Broadband connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 3: Outgoing voice traffic by network of origination, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 4: Mobile SIM penetration rates by device type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 5: Mobile SIM penetration rates by generation, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 6: Fixed penetration rates by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 7: Countries covered in this report
Figure 8: Key factors influencing forecast assumptions
Figure 9: Key metrics for historical and forecast data
Figure 10: Metrics for the six countries modelled individually in developed Asia–Pacific, 2011
Figure 11: Retail revenue by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 12: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2010–2016
Figure 13: Year-on-year and forecast growth rates of connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2010–2016
Figure 14: Growth rates of retail revenue and GDP by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2011–2016
Figure 15: Mobile penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 16: Mobile connections by device type and proportion of mobile broadband connections, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 17: Mobile connections by generation, and penetration, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 18: Smartphones as a proportion of mobile handset SIMs, by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 19: Mobile revenue by type and non-voice services’ share of mobile revenue, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 20: Mobile revenue by type, and mobile ARPU and ASPU, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 21: Outgoing mobile voice minutes by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 22: Mobile average retail revenue per minute (ARPM) by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 23: Fixed broadband penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 24: Fixed broadband connections by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 25: Fixed broadband revenue by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 26: Fixed voice connections by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 27: Fixed voice penetration by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 28: Outgoing fixed voice minutes by country, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 29: Outgoing mobile and fixed voice minutes, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 30: Fixed retail revenue by type, developed Asia–Pacific, 2009–2016
Figure 31: Retail revenue by service type, Australia, 2008–2016
Figure 32: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Australia, 2010–2016
Figure 33: Growth rates of connections by type, Australia, 2010–2016
Figure 34: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Australia, 2008–2016
Figure 35: Mobile connections by device, Australia, 2008–2016
Figure 36: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Australia, 2008–2016
Figure 37: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Australia, 2008–2016
Figure 38: Fixed retail broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Australia, 2008–2016
Figure 39: Retail revenue by service type, Hong Kong, 2008–2016
Figure 40: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Hong Kong, 2010–2016
Figure 41: Growth rates of connections by type, Hong Kong, 2010–2016
Figure 42: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Hong Kong, 2008–2016
Figure 43: Mobile connections by device, Hong Kong, 2008–2016
Figure 44: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Hong Kong, 2008–2016
Figure 45: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Hong Kong, 2008–2016
Figure 46: Retail fixed broadband revenue by technology, and ARPU, Hong Kong, 2008–2016
Figure 47: Retail revenue by service type, Japan, 2008–2016
Figure 48: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Japan, 2010–2016
Figure 49: Growth rates of connections by type, Japan, 2010–2016
Figure 50: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Japan, 2008–2016
Figure 51: Mobile connections by device, Japan, 2008–2016
Figure 52: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Japan, 2008–2016
Figure 53: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Japan, 2008–2016
Figure 54: Retail fixed broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Japan, 2008–2016
Figure 55: Retail revenue by service type, Singapore, 2008–2016
Figure 56: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Singapore, 2010–2016
Figure 57: Growth rates of connections by type, Singapore, 2010–2016
Figure 58: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Singapore, 2008–2016
Figure 59: Mobile connections by device, Singapore, 2008–2016
Figure 60: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 61: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Singapore, 2008–2016
Figure 62: Retail fixed broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Singapore, 2008–2016
Figure 63: Retail revenue by service type, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 64: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, South Korea, 2010–2016
Figure 65: Growth rates of connections by type, South Korea, 2010–2016
Figure 66: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 67: Mobile connections by device, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 68: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 69: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 70: Retail fixed broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, South Korea, 2008–2016
Figure 71: Retail revenue by service type, Taiwan, 2008–2016
Figure 72: Growth rates of retail revenue by service type, Taiwan, 2010–2016
Figure 73: Growth rates of connections by type, Taiwan, 2010–2016
Figure 74: Mobile connections by device, Taiwan, 2008–2016
Figure 75: Mobile retail revenue by service type and ASPU, Taiwan, 2008–2016
Figure 76: Mobile connections by generation, and mobile penetration, Taiwan, 2008–2016
Figure 77: Fixed connections by type and fixed penetration, Taiwan, 2008–2016
Figure 78: Retail fixed broadband revenue by technology and ARPU, Taiwan, 2008–2016

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Alexandra Rehak (Partner, Head of Telecoms Research) is responsible for setting the direction for Analysys Mason’s telecoms research, working with our expert analysts and consultants to build new content programmes and developing areas of thought leadership across our Consumer, Networks, Enterprise and Data/Regional practices. Alexandra previously served as Research Director of Analysys Mason’s Custom Research group, where she developed and directed client-specific projects on market, competitive and regulatory issues for a variety of clients including service providers, vendors and regulators. Alexandra’s primary areas of specialisation include media and entertainment, mobile telecoms services for both consumer and enterprise markets, best practice and competitive strategy, and benchmarking. She also established Analysys Mason’s Consumer Content and Applications research programme. Before joining Analysys Mason, Alexandra was Director of Advisory Services at the international telecoms research firm TeleGeography. Her other previous experience includes management roles in Motorola’s Business Research and Strategy group in Asia, in the telecoms/media/technology division of PA Consulting Group, and as Director, Asia–Pacific region for Pyramid Research.

Katrina Bond (Analysys Mason Associate) is a freelance analyst with more than a decade of experience in understanding, analysing and forecasting the telecoms industry. She has a global perspective having been based in Australia, the UK and now in the USA, and has maintained a special interest in the Asia–Pacific region. Katrina previously managed Analysys Mason’s mobile research programme as a Principal Analyst in the company’s Research division. She has written extensively on fixed–mobile substitution, mobile data and content services, mobile data solutions for businesses, mobile payments, and billing, pricing and roaming issues related to mobile data services.

William Hare (Analyst) joined Analysys Mason’s Consulting division in 2007, before transferring to the Research division in 2010. He works primarily on Analysys Mason’s Consumer services research, as well as contributing to the modelling behind the Telecoms Market Matrix, wireless traffic forecasting and the Connected Consumer survey. His primary specialisations include business and market modelling and data analysis, for both the mobile and fixed telecoms markets. He read mathematics at the University of Cambridge.

Emma Buckland (Senior Analyst) manages Analysys Mason’s Core Forecasts research programme and is the lead analyst of its Country Reports research programme. She is also one of the key contributors to Analysys Mason’s Telecoms Market Matrix, which tracks and compares telecoms metrics and market shares for all the major fixed and mobile operators in Europe. In addition, she regularly manages customised telecoms KPI benchmarking projects for clients. She has extensive experience in sourcing, collecting, analysing, interpreting, harmonising and presenting telecoms metrics for fixed and mobile operators in the developed economies (Europe, North America and the developed Asia–Pacific region) and in the emerging markets (the Middle East and North Africa, and Central and Latin American countries). Emma has a degree in Engineering from Ecole Centrale de Lyon in France and a postgraduate degree in International Business from Université Paris Dauphine.

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