Vietnam Defence and Security Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 85
Business Monitor International's Vietnam Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's defence and security industry.
As Vietnam embarks on the costly process of modernising its armed forces, would-be partners from around the world have begun lining up in the hope of securing a share of what could become a lucrative growth market for defence technology. However, the traditional supplier of most of Hanoi’s weaponry, Russia, has signalled that it has every intention of preserving its hold over the Vietnamese market.
Having already agreed to supply Vietnam with six Kilo-class submarines and additional Sukhoi fighter aircraft, Moscow announced in March 2012 that it had signed an agreement to jointly develop anti-ship missiles and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) with the Vietnamese defence industry. The anti-ship missile programme is expected to enable Vietnam to produce its own version of the Kh-35 Uran missile – a system that Vietnamese missile boats already field. The UAV tie-up will see Russia’s Irkut team with the Vietnam Aerospace Association to develop a new mini-UAV, which the Vietnamese military will use for surveillance purposes.
However, such is the international interest in partnering with Vietnam that Russia will almost inevitably lose some market share. In January 2012, Singapore agreed to pursue defence industry collaboration with Hanoi. The following month Israeli defence firm Rafael revealed that it was targeting Vietnam as a potential customer for its UAVs, while Israeli Aerospace Industries (IAI) announced in February that it had secured a US$150mn deal to supply an undisclosed Asian customer – which analysts speculated was likely to be Vietnam – with new radar systems.
Also in February, Australia held its inaugural strategic dialogue with the Vietnamese government. A high-level US delegation, led by senators Joseph Lieberman and John McCain, also visited Vietnam in early 2012 to pursue closer ties.
While the US is understood to have reservations about selling Vietnam defence equipment in the near future because of the country’s poor human rights record, upcoming Vietnamese requirements may persuade Washington to overcome its concerns in the interests of commercial and strategic expediency.
Hanoi is understood to be keen to procure new anti-submarine warfare platforms to help it counter what it perceives as Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, and Lockheed Martin’s P-3 Orion patrol aircraft is one of two obvious contenders that could fulfil such a requirement, the other being the C295, built by European firm Airbus Military.
Yet more Western defence firms will face frustration in Vietnam. The country’s true defence budget may be somewhat higher than the government’s stated allocation of around US$3.1bn for 2012, but its resources remain relatively modest, even by South East Asian standards. The Vietnamese economy is also still quite fragile, with large sectors of the state-owned economy in need of urgent reform and the country’s reliance on foreign investment still considerable. As a result, the opportunities for overseas defence companies in Vietnam may prove to be elusive, except in certain technology niches that the Vietnamese military is seeking to prioritise. A willingness to transfer technical knowhow to Vietnam’s defence industry is likely to be key to securing market access.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Vietnam Security SWOT
Vietnam Defence Industry SWOT
Vietnam Political SWOT
Vietnam Economic SWOT
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT
Global Political Outlook
Landmark Political Events Looming In 2012
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula
Table: Election Timetable, 2012
United States
Russia
China
Wild Cards To Watch
Regional Security Overview
South East Asia Security Overview
South East Asia In A Global Context
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security
The Outlook For South East Asia
Sino-US Power Struggle To Intensify Over The Coming Decade
Chinese Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis
US Influence In Asia: A SWOT Analysis
Does China Seek To 'Dominate' Asia?
Do Asian States Have To Choose Between China And The US?
Table: Asian States And Their Relationships With China
Emerging Geopolitical Patterns
Security Risk Analysis
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index
Vietnam’s Security Risk
Political Outlook
Short-Term Political Outlook
Long-Term Political Outlook
Domestic Security Overview
Internal Security Situation
Governance
Religion
Piracy And Maritime Security
Border Security
External Security Situation
The South China Sea
Bilateral Relations
Armed Forces And Government Spending
Armed Forces
Weapons Of Mass Destruction
Market Overview
Industry Trends And Developments
Arms Trade Overview
Procurement Trends And Developments
Industry Forecast Scenario
Armed Forces
Table: Vietnam’s Armed Forces, 2001-2008 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated), 2001-2008
Table: Vietnam’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated)
Government Expenditure
Table: Vietnam’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016
Table: Vietnam’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Defence Trade
Table: Vietnam’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Vietnam’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Table: Vietnam’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn)
Macroeconomic Forecast
Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2011-2016
Country Snapshot: Vietnam Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 1999-2004
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Defence Industry
Sources
Product Samples
A sample for this product is available. Please Login/Register to download this sample.
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
