Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, May 2012, Pages: 104
Business Monitor International's Bulgaria Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's telecommunications industry.
The ongoing sale of the incumbent Bulgarian Telecommunications Company (Vivacom) is the major development in the Bulgarian market in the past quarter. At the time of writing, negotiations for the sale of Vivacom had not been concluded, although reports from local press indicate that Turkcell is in pole position. BMI believes Turkcell to have the greatest potential to benefit the Bulgarian market, based on its experience in the low-cost Turkish market where it has helped drive market development. However, it was reported that creditors and Turkcell were yet to enter exclusive talks. A buyer could be announced by mid-April 2012. The outcome could have far reaching implications for the market as Vivacom continues to dominate both the fixed-line and broadband markets.
The Bulgarian regulator has also submitted a proposed glide path to the European Commission in the past quarter for mobile termination rates (MTRs). The proposed path would see rates fall to almost a third of their current level in three instalments in April and July 2012, then January 2013. The Commission has warned the Bulgarian regulator, the CRC, several times that MTRs are too high and must be reduced. The rate cuts are welcomed in that they will help facilitate price competition from rivals with smaller market shares. However, they would also hit operator revenues in a market heavily dependent on voice revenues as data revenue growth has failed to take off. Finally, although MTR cuts would improve the regulatory environment, given the pressure from the Commission, BMI does not believe the cuts indicate an improved focus on liberalisation and consumer interests on the part of the CRC.
In addition to covering the most recent developments in the Bulgarian telecoms sector, the Q312 Bulgaria telecoms report contains BMI’s revised forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and broadband markets based on latest regulatory and operator data. The fixed-line and broadband forecasts have not seen a significant revision, but the mobile forecast has been upgraded based on stronger than expected growth in H211. The mobile ARPU forecast has had a significant downgrade based on ongoing price erosion and the prospect of MTR cuts negatively impacting operator revenues in 2012 and 2013. This report also contains updated operational and financial data for the country’s major network operators, as well as an overview of mobile content and value-added services and an update to the regulatory environment.
Based on Q411 figures published by Bulgaria’s two largest mobile operators – Telekom Austria-backed Mobiltel and Globul, which is owned by OTE of Greece – and a company statement from Vivacom relating to the performance of its mobile operations in 2011, we estimate that Bulgaria’s mobile subscriber base grew by 9.8% during 2011, up from the 1.2% growth recorded in 2010, to reach 11.711mn subscribers. Despite this growth, we consider the growth prospects to be limited with penetration rates above 157%. Rather, we expect operators to focus on attracting higher value subscribers and expanding their postpaid subscriber bases to ensure ARPU stability. By 2016, we forecast Bulgaria’s mobile penetration rate to reach 173.8%. We also expect 3G connections, which accounted for just 9.4% of total mobile subscriptions in 2010, to account for around 27.8% of the mobile market by 2016.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Bulgaria Mobile SWOT
Bulgaria Wireline SWOT
Bulgaria Political SWOT
Bulgaria Economic SWOT
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT
Risk/Reward Ratings
Central And Eastern Europe
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312
Bulgaria
Industry Forecast Scenario
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU (BGN) – Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed Line
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts
Internet
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Bulgarian Mobile Net Additions, Q411
Market Share
Subscriber Mix
MVNOs
ARPU
3G
Mobile Contract Wins
Table: Mobile Contract Wins
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Market
Table: Mobiltel
Table: Globul
Table Vivacom
Mobile Content
Regional Outlook
Table: Mobile Broadband Subscriptions By Operator
Top 10 Sites By Visits On Opera Mini-browser, Select Countries In CEE
Country Outlook
Value-Added Services Timeline
Table: VAS Timeline
Fixed Line
Broadband
Cable
WiMAX
IPTV And FTTx
Mobile Broadband
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments
Table: Wireline Developments (2008-2010)
Regulatory Environment
Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities
Legislation
Regulatory Developments
Industry Developments
Competitive Landscape
Key Players
Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2009
Company Monitor
Ericsson Has Company Going Local In Skolkovo
Operator Profiles
Vivacom
Mobiltel (M-Tel)
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview
Fixed Line
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Country Snapshot: Bulgaria Demographic Data
Section 1: Population
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030
Section 2: Education And Healthcare
Table: Education, 2002-2005
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$)
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012
Glossary Of Terms
Table: Glossary Of Terms
BMI Methodology
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology
Ratings System
Indicators
Table: Ratings Indicators
Weighting
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
Sources
-Ericsson
-Vivacom
-Mobiltel (MTel)
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