Ghana Telecommunications Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 102
Business Monitor International's Ghana Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ghana's telecommunications industry.
In this quarter's update on Ghana's telecoms market, we have incorporated the YE11 data from the National
Communications Authority (NCA) latest operational and financial data published by some of the country's
major telecoms service providers. We envisage that the country's mobile sector will have 29.569mn mobile
subscribers by 2016, up from 21.166mn at the end of 2011. We also expect fixed-line subscriptions to reach
308,000 by 2016, while broadband subscriptions, driven by the rapid expansion of wireless access networks
and cheaper international connectivity, will reach 1.119mn at the end of our current forecast period.
We upgraded our mobile forecast this quarter to reflect strong net additions in 2011, which we attribute to
promotional deals offered by operators to defend market shares amid downside risks from SIM registration
and mobile number portability. However, we note that the likelihood of the deactivation of unregistered
SIMs by the telecoms regulator poses a significant downside risk to our short- to medium term growth
expectations. The regulator is due to deactivate unregistered prepaid mobile lines on March 3 2012 to
conclude the mandatory SIM card registration exercise in the country. Local media reports suggest that up
to 7.5mn lines, 35.4% of the total subscriber base by December 2011, could be deactivated for noncompliance
with the registration directive. We will revise our forecasts in subsequent updates in line with
the regulator's final decision regarding the fate of unregistered lines.
A notable development to watch in Ghana's mobile market in 2012 is the launch of commercial services by
sixth licensee Globacom. The company missed its November 2011 and January 2012 launch dates, a
worrying sign for its preparedness to compete in Ghana's fiercely competitive mobile market. However, in
February 2011 the company claimed that more than 1.8mn people have so far reserved their preferred phone
numbers on its network since it launched its 'Reserve Your Number' promotion for potential
subscribers. BMI believes the surge in requests is in expectation of an imminent launch by the operator. Glo
has been engaged on a number of roadshows in key market zones within Accra and says it has deployed
state-of-the-art infrastructure to provide quality service, including 3G-based mobile broadband services with
more than 1,600 base transceiver stations and four ultra-modern switches with capacity for up to 10mn. The
launch of commercial services by Glo poses considerable upside risks to our forecast and is expected to
affect current market dynamics, especially if the lines that have been reserved are activated.
Meanwhile, the outlook in the country's fixed-line remains unclear, given that operators' subscriber bases
continue to fluctuate without a distinct short-term trend. The fixed-line market recorded net additions of
about 6,800 subscribers, or growth of 2.2%, in 2011 to reach 284,700 subscribers. However, this masks the
fact that the market expanded to more than 295,000 subscribers in Q311, but recorded a 3.3% q-o-q decline
in Q411. With regard to the broadband market, we have largely retained our forecast, with mobile
broadband subscriptions driving growth over the next few years. We retain our view that wireless access
technologies, particularly 3G-based services, will drive internet usage and broadband subscriptions in
Ghana in the future.
Executive Summary
Mobile SWOT
Wireline
SWOT Analysis
Mobile SWOT
Wireline
Political
Economic
Business Environment
Industry Business Environment Overview
Business Environment Analysis
Table: Sub-Saharan Africa Risk/Reward Ratings, Q212
Ghana
Industry Forecast
Mobile
Table: Telecoms Sector - Mobile - Historical Data & Forecast
ARPU
Table: Telecoms Sector - ARPU - Historical Data & Forecasts
Fixed-Line
Table: Telecoms Sector - Fixed Line - Historical Data & Forecast
Broadband
Table: Telecoms Sector - Internet - Historical Data & Forecasts
Market Data Analysis
Mobile
Table: Ghana Mobile Market ('000)
Table: Mobile Market Net Additions, 2011
Mobile Operator Data
Table: Market Overview
Table: MTN
Table: Tigo
Table: Vodafone
Table: Airtel
Table: Expresso (Kasapa)
Mobile Content
VAS: A Vital Strategy For Outperformance
Table: Major Players Leverage Footprint In VAS Development
MTN And Vodacom Lead The Way With Mobile Apps
Mobile Advertising: The Next Big Thing?
Telecoms Crossovers Still In The Mix
Country Outlook
Table: Table: VAS Developments
Fixed-Line
Table: Fixed-Line Subscribers, 2009-2011
Broadband
Table: Table: Wireline Developments Table
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments
Table: Table: Ghana's Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities
Competitive Landscape
Table: Key Players - Ghana Telecoms Sector
Vendor Profile
Recent Financials
Table: Aviat Networks Quarterly Financial Results (US$mn)
Fibre Is Not Everything: Industry Trends And Competition
Key Products
Company Strategy
Company Profiles
Ghana Telecom
MTN Ghana
Market Overview
Mobile
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview
Fixed-Line
Table: Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview
Broadband
Table: Table: Regional Internet Use Penetration Overview
Glossary
Table: Glossary Of Terms
Methodology
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings
Table: Ratings Indicators
Table: Weighting Of Indicators
-Ghana Telecom
-MTN Ghana,
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