India Shipping Report Q2 2012
Business Monitor International, April 2012, Pages: 152
Business Monitor International's India Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on India's shipping industry.
India's economy and trade continues to expand rapidly. BMI expects this growth to slow, but the
expansion will still be considerable over our forecast period. The volumes of dry bulk and containers
being processed at the country's facilities are causing congestion at the ageing state-owned ports. This is
leading to a raft of new private facilities being established all over the country amid worries that the
Indian ports sector will be unable to maintain pace with demand growth. Some foreign players remain
wary of India's business environment, however.
Headline Industry Data
-2011/12 Port of Kandla tonnage throughput forecast to grow 0.4%, and to average 7.6% to
2016/17.
-2011/12 Port of Jawaharlal Nehru container throughput forecast to grow 2.8%, and to average 7.3%
per annum to the end of our forecast period.
-2011/12 trade real growth forecast at 13.8%, and to average 10.0% to 2016/17.
Key Industry Trends
APMT Looks To Indian Ports Growth
BMI believes that further investment by international terminals operator APM Terminals (APMT) in the
Indian ports sector would be beneficial to both parties: India will receive APMT's expertise, while APMT
can expect volumes to show strong growth in the years to come. We note, however, that the Indian
Ministry of Shipping may be wary of the Danish company following the delay to Mumbai's fourth
terminal caused by APMT's plea in the Supreme Court.
Bids For Vizhinjam Not Forthcoming In Light Of Continued Cabotage Restrictions
We believe that the investment currently being made at the Vizhinjam International Seaport could be for
naught if the Indian government does not relax its strict cabotage laws, which prevent transhipment in
India being undertaken by a foreign vessel. The stifling effect of these restrictions has already become
apparent on the throughput volumes being handled at the International Container Transhipment Terminal
(ICTT) further north up the Keralan coastline at Vallarpadam.
New Concor Service Linking NMPT With Bangalore Gives Upside Risk To BMI Forecasts
BMI believes that the commencement of a container train service between the commercially important
city of Bangalore and the New Mangalore Port Trust (NMPT) offers upside potential for Indian rail
freight volumes. Further, it will help the NMPT in its drive to diversify away from its lost iron ore export
volumes.
Key Risks To Outlook
The key risk to our throughput forecasts for India's ports is the congestion we have seen at the two key
facilities of JNPT and Chennai. There are downside growth risks from spiralling inflation. Should food
prices and oil prices maintain their upward march, there is a risk that we could see additional monetary
tightening, which would surely come at the expense of headline economic growth. This would have a
negative effect on throughput at the country's ports.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
India Shipping SWOT
India Political SWOT
India Economic SWOT
India Business Environment SWOT
Global Overview – Container Shipping
Summary – Carriers Face Threats Of Declining Demand And Overcapacity
Overcapacity And Declining Demand To Collide, Asia-Europe Most Exposed
Liner Strategies Indicate Carriers Preparing For The Worst
What Is Wan Hai Lines Doing Right?
Asia-Europe Landbridge To Take Market Share, But Not Usurp Shipping
Container Shipping Must Meet Green Challenge Now
Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping
Summary – Chinese Slowdown Threatens Sector Already In Troubled Waters
Possibility Of Chinese Slowdown Presents Real Risk To Dry Bulk Shipping
One Vale Mega-Vessel Calls To China, Remains Unclear If Rest Will Follow
Dry Bulk Lines Suffering; Another Chinese Firm Withholds Charter Payments
Oversized Dry Bulk Fleet To Continue Growing
Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping
Summary – Liquid Bulk Survival Tactics Deployed In Force In 2012
2012 Outlook For Crude Oil Tankers Remains Poor
Frontline 2012 To Be Consolidating Force In Supertanker Sector
Industry Trends And Developments
Container Shipping Market Overview
Industry Forecast
Port Of Jawaharlal Nehru Throughput Overview
Table: India – Economic Activity, 2012-2017
Port Of Chennai
Table: Major Port Data – Throughput, 2009-2016
Trade
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 (US$mn and % change y-o-y)
Table: India's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Table: India's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn)
Company Profiles
Varun Shipping
Mercator Lines
Shipping Corporation of India (SCI)
Great Eastern Shipping (GE Shipping)
Maersk Line
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
CMA CGM
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
Hapag-Lloyd
APL
Evergreen Line
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
- Varun Shipping
- Mercator Lines
- Shipping Corporation of India (SCI)
- Great Eastern Shipping (GE Shipping)
- Maersk Line
- Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC)
- CMA CGM
- COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON)
- Hapag-Lloyd
- APL
- Evergreen Line
- China Shipping Container Line (CSCL)
- Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations)
- Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container)
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