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Intellinews - Albania Country Report - Issue 5 2012
Emerging Markets Direct, June 2012, Pages: 11
The IntelliNews Albania Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Albania, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.
The World Bank cut Albania’s economic growth estimate for this year to 1.6% from 2% and said the country should post a more robust expansion of 2.5% in 2013. Despite revising downwards its forecast, the World Bank is more optimistic about Albania’s economic growth prospects than the EBRD that sees the country’s GDP expanding by 1.2% in 2012 and by 1.8% in 2013. The estimates of both the World Bank and the EBRD are well below the Albanian government’s forecast for a 4.3% growth in 2012. Albania’s economic growth slowed to 3.1% y/y in 2011 from 3.9% in 2010 and yet it was slightly above the government’s target of 3%.
Consumer price inflation in the country accelerated for the third month in a row in May with prices rising by 1.9% y/y, following an annual increase of 1.6% in April. Albania’s producer prices grew by an annual 2.5% in Q1 2012, speeding up from 2.1% y/y in the previous quarter driven up by the manufacturing sector.
Albania’s unemployment rate remained unchanged q/q at 13.3% in the first quarter of 2012 but in annual terms it edged down by 0.1ppt.
Higher budget revenues helped Albania narrow its general budget gap in the first four months of 2012 by 27.9% y/y to EUR 82.5mn, equalling to 0.8% of the projected full-year GDP, down from 1.2% a year earlier.
The Albanian Parliament has elected the ruling party’s nominee Bujar Nishani for the country’s new president at the fourth round of voting, which needed only a simple majority of 71 votes out of the 140-seated parliament. The previous three parliament sessions failed to gather the three-fifths majority required to elect a candidate to the largely ceremonial post of president.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
REAL SECTOR
1. GDP
EBRD keeps Albania’s 2012 GDP growth forecast unchanged at 1.2%.
World Bank cuts Albania’s 2012 economic growth forecast to 1.6%
2. Inflation
Albania’s May consumer price inflation speeds up to 1.9% y/y
Albania’s PPI rises 2.5% y/y in Q1 2012.
3. Labour market
Albania’s unemployment rate remains flat q/q at 13.3% in Q1 2012.
FISCAL SECTOR
Albania’s general budget deficit narrows by 27.9% y/y in Jan-April..
FINANCIAL SECTOR
Albanian bank assets rise 12.9% y/y in April 2012.
Albanian bank lending growth eases to 9.9% y/y in April 2012.
Premiums of Albanian insurers down 8.5% y/y in Jan-April 2012
EXTERNAL SECTOR
1. Balance of payments
Albania’s foreign trade gap widens 0.7% y/y in Jan-Apr 2012
Albania’s current account gap widens 16.7% y/y in Q1 2012
2. External debt and liquidity
Bookmark not defined. Albania’s foreign debt rises 1.5% q/q in Q1 2012.
STRUCTURAL REFORMS
Albanian government to draft pension system reform.
POLITICS
Albania takes over Council of Europe’s chairmanship.
Albania elects Bujar Nishani for new president
Table 1 Consumer prices
Table 2 Producer Price Index
Table 3 Labour force survey
Table 4 General budget
Table 5 Insurance premiums
Table 7 Albania's foreign trade
Table 8 Balance of Payments
Figure 1 Consumer Price Index
Figure 2 Albanian banks' assets
Figure 3 Albania's bank lending
Figure 4 Albania's foreign trade
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