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Intellinews - Montenegro Country Report - Issue 7 - 2012
Description:
The IntelliNews Montenegrin Country Report is a monthly report, covering the major macroeconomic indicators and trends in Montenegro, as well as important political developments. Prepared by local analysts, it provides the most accurate data, updated regularly according to the data changes noted by the whole range of statistics sources. It will save the time you would need to track the figures and sources independently and will provide you with thorough analysis.
Executive Summary
On June 29, Montenegro announced the start of accession negotiations with the EU, two and a half years after the country was granted an official candidate status. The launch of talks is expected to have a positive effect on the economy, especially in terms of attracting foreign direct investments.
In June, based on weakening economic environment, contingent liabilities, and low external bank financing, international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered Montenegro's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to 'BB-' from 'BB'. Accumulation of arrears hinders the ability of the government to consolidate public finances, the agency pointed out.
Public debt rose by 12.3 % y/y in May to 48% of GDP. Due to rising fiscal imbalances (the budget deficit reached EUR 88mn in the first five months of 2012, or 2.6% of the projected full-year GDP), public debt will probably continue to increase. On the positive side it is still far away from the Maastricht threshold of 60%.
The World Bank also released less optimistic expectations about Montenegro – the country’s economy is estimated to grow by a real 0.5% in 2012 and the projection was lowered from 1.5% in the previous report.
Executive Summary
On June 29, Montenegro announced the start of accession negotiations with the EU, two and a half years after the country was granted an official candidate status. The launch of talks is expected to have a positive effect on the economy, especially in terms of attracting foreign direct investments.
In June, based on weakening economic environment, contingent liabilities, and low external bank financing, international credit rating agency Standard & Poor's lowered Montenegro's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings to 'BB-' from 'BB'. Accumulation of arrears hinders the ability of the government to consolidate public finances, the agency pointed out.
Public debt rose by 12.3 % y/y in May to 48% of GDP. Due to rising fiscal imbalances (the budget deficit reached EUR 88mn in the first five months of 2012, or 2.6% of the projected full-year GDP), public debt will probably continue to increase. On the positive side it is still far away from the Maastricht threshold of 60%.
The World Bank also released less optimistic expectations about Montenegro – the country’s economy is estimated to grow by a real 0.5% in 2012 and the projection was lowered from 1.5% in the previous report.
Contents:
Executive Summary
Macroeconomy Overview
Real Sector
1. GDP
2. Inflation
3. Industry and Trade
4. Labour Market
5. Tourism
Fiscal Sector
Financial Intermediation
External Sector
Politics
Structural Reforms
Table 1 Montenegro: GDP
Table 2 Montenegro: CPI inflation, %, y/y
Table 3 Montenegro: Industrial output, %, y/y
Table 4 Montenegro: Public debt, EUR mn, eop
Table 5 Budget
Table 6 Montengro : Total assets of commercial banks
Table 7 Montenegro: Credits extended by commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Table 8 Montenegro: Deposits held at commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Figure 1 Montenegro Producer Price Index
Figure 2 Montenegro Industrial Output
Figure 3 Montenegro Average Wage
Figure 4 Montenegro Bank Assets
Figure 5 Montenegro Bank Loans
Figure 6 Montenegro Bank Deposits
Macroeconomy Overview
Real Sector
1. GDP
2. Inflation
3. Industry and Trade
4. Labour Market
5. Tourism
Fiscal Sector
Financial Intermediation
External Sector
Politics
Structural Reforms
Table 1 Montenegro: GDP
Table 2 Montenegro: CPI inflation, %, y/y
Table 3 Montenegro: Industrial output, %, y/y
Table 4 Montenegro: Public debt, EUR mn, eop
Table 5 Budget
Table 6 Montengro : Total assets of commercial banks
Table 7 Montenegro: Credits extended by commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Table 8 Montenegro: Deposits held at commercial banks, EUR mn, eop
Figure 1 Montenegro Producer Price Index
Figure 2 Montenegro Industrial Output
Figure 3 Montenegro Average Wage
Figure 4 Montenegro Bank Assets
Figure 5 Montenegro Bank Loans
Figure 6 Montenegro Bank Deposits
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