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Country Risk Service Belgium 3rd Quarter

  • ID: 2192840
  • August 2016
  • Region: Belgium
  • 20 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit
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The BBB rating is unchanged, but the score improves by 1 point, to 30, owing primarily to an increase in the coverage of interest payments by government deposits, reducing the risk associated with the stubbornly high public debt load. Quantitative easing in the euro zone will help to keep interest rates low.

The rating remains at BBB. The euro has been relatively stable against the US dollar over the past year, but The Economist Intelligence Unit expects a modest depreciation in 2016-17, owing to the fallout from the UK's vote to leave the EU. We assign a 60% likelihood to Greece leaving the euro zone by 2020.

The rating improved to A in 2015, after a sustained improvement in the sector's health since the 2008-09 global financial crisis. The Tier 1 capital adequacy ratio came to 16% in mid-2015, and non-performing loans had fallen to 3.8% of total loans. Profitability has slowed since the crisis, but is well above the EU average.

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Country Risk Service Belgium 3rd Quarter

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Sovereign risk
Current assessment
Rating outlook

Central scenario for 2016-20: Political stability

Central scenario for 2016-20: Election watch

Central scenario for 2016-20: International relations

Central scenario for 2016-20: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2016-20: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2016-20: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2016-20: Inflation

Central scenario for 2016-20: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2016-20: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

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