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Country Risk Service Belgium 3rd Quarter Product Image

Country Risk Service Belgium 3rd Quarter

  • Published: July 2012
  • 16 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

A six-party coalition government headed by Elio Di Rupo was finally formed in December 2011, almost 19 months after the previous one resigned. Tension between the two linguistic communities will persist and have an impact on political stability. The hardline separatist New-Flemish Alliance (N-VA) will exploit its position as the main opposition party to boost its popularity further. The coalition's programme of deficit-reduction measures will not be sufficient to eliminate the budget deficit in the forecast period, and debt will rise above 100% of GDP. Economic growth reached an estimated 2% in 2011. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects real GDP to contract by 0.2% in 2012, before returning to meagre growth in 2013 and average growth of 1.7% during 2014-16. Major downside risks stem from the sovereign debt crisis in the euro area. Inflation averaged 3.5% in 2011, and is forecast at 2.6% for 2012 and 2.4% on average in 2013-16.

The government is likely to succeed in getting constitutional reform passed by parliament in July, thereby reducing the risk of political stability.

The freeze in energy prices will reduce price increases, and we have revised our inflation forecast for 2012 to 2.6% from 3.1% previously.

Country Risk Service Belgium 3rd Quarter

Belgium at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability

Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch

Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations

Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: In focus: Is Belgium in line for a speculativ

Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation

Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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