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Retail Point of Sale Forecast 2012-2017: Cash is No Longer King; Cards and Mobile Payments Likely to Rise
Javelin Strategy & Research, June 2012, Pages: 29
Cash is no longer king at the point of sale (POS); the total purchase volumes for traditional card products have surpassed those for all other options. Debit dominates and is used in close to a third of all in-store purchases. Credit follows with a fractionally lower share at POS than is held by debit. This report evaluates the actual and forecast changes in the retail POS market, tracking payments mix data from 2011 through the forecast year of 2017 and identifying key drivers of market change. In addition to highlighting domestic in-store retail growth during 2011, this report details Javelin's forecasts for total retail POS payments volume and analyzes share and transaction growth at the POS for credit cards, debit cards, cash, paper checks, prepaid cards, gift cards, and mobile phone payments.
- What are the major trends for domestic retail POS payments transactions?
- How will traditional non-card payments options — cash and paper checks — fare as card-based payments vehicles continue to grow in popularity?
- Will traditional card-based payments options, including credit and debit, maintain current dollar volumes, or will nontraditional options like prepaid and gift cards infringe on their share?
- Will mobile proximity payments disrupt the current POS payments ecosystem, or will consumer adoption of this emerging payments option remain scant?
- What factors influence consumer adoption and use of various payments options for in-store purchasing?
Merchants/billers; payments networks; payment services vendors/gateways/processors; government institutions; merchant acquirers; financial institutions: online banking, mobile banking, electronic payments services, marketing; third-party terminal vendors; rewards/couponing vendors; mobile payment vendors; multichannel vendors
Using data collected through an online survey conducted in October 2011 of a random-sample panel of 3,210 consumers, Javelin targeted respondents based on proportions of gender, age and income representative of those of the overall U.S.
population. According to the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the projected 2012 U.S. adult population is estimated to be 240 million people. The overall margin of sampling error is ±1.73% at the 95% confidence level.
The total POS retail payments volume was derived through survey results and a reweighting by payment type based on regularly revised U.S. Census online retail data, publicly available payments activity data from major service providers (e.g., Visa,
MasterCard, Discover, American Express, eBay) and Javelin industry analysis of payment means and frequencies. The
reweighting maintains survey integrity while anchoring the forecast to concrete market data developed by secondary sources.
Prior years were also reweighted to maintain accurate trendability.
Secondary data from public sources such as the U.S. Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) was incorporated into the forecast. Javelin derived the forecast using a combination of personal income forecasts from the OMB and BEA. The ratio of total retail to personal income was also
drawn from these studies.
POS Retail Activity and Payments Mix Forecast
Consumer Payments Usage
Average Purchase Amount
Traditional Non-Card Payment Options Give Way to Card-Based
Traditional Card-Based Options: Debit and Credit
Nontraditional Payment Options: Gift and Prepaid Cards
Emerging POS Option: Mobile Phone Payments
Table of Figures
Figure 1: US POS and Online Retail Transaction Dollar Volume, 2011–2016
Figure 2: Consumer Use of Payment Products for In-Store Purchases in Past 30 Days, 2011
Figure 3: Share of Total POS Payments Volume ($) by Key Payment Category, 2011–2017
Figure 4: POS Total Payments Volume by Payment Method, 2011–2017
Figure 5: Average Amount Consumers Typically Spend on an In-Store Purchase by Payment Method, 2011
Figure 6: Cash POS Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2011–2017
Figure 7: Paper Check POS Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2011–2017
Figure 8: Debit Card (Major and Store-Branded) POS Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2011–2017
Figure 9: Credit Card (Major and Store-Branded) POS Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2011–2017
Figure 10: Closed-Loop Gift Card POS Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2011–2017
Figure 11: Prepaid Card (Usable Anywhere) POS Purchase Dollar Volume and Share, 2011–2017
Figure 12: Mobile POS Purchase Dollar Volume, 2011–2017
Figure 13: Most Frequently Used Payment Options for Any Type of Purchase, 2011
Figure 14: Consumers Who Own or Use Particular Financial or Payment Products, 2011
Figure 15: Consumer Use of Payment Products for In-Store Purchases in Past 30 Days, 2010–2011
- American Express
- Fresh & Easy
- Home Depot
- Whole Foods
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