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Country Risk Service Greece 3rd Quarter Product Image

Country Risk Service Greece 3rd Quarter

  • Published: July 2012
  • 18 Pages
  • The Economist Intelligence Unit

A fragile three-party coalition led by the centre-right New Democracy (ND) took office in June 2012. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects the coalition to fall by 2014, leading to a new election. Amid a deepening economic depression, soaring unemployment and rising anti-austerity sentiment among the electorate, we expect the left-wing Syriza Unifying Social Front to win the next election. Although Greece restructured part of its public debt in March 2012, its debt sustainability remains suspect. Another default is likely by 2014. Political instability, social unrest and economic hardship could trigger a disorderly default and euro exit. We assign a 40% risk to Greece leaving the euro zone in 2012-13. If Greece remains in the euro area, economic policy will remain guided by the two Memorandums of Understanding (MoU) that Greece agreed with the EU and IMF, focusing on austerity and structural reforms. We forecast that real GDP will decline by 7.1% in 2012 and 1.9% in 2013, followed by a gradual export-led recovery to annual average growth of 1.4% in 2015-16.

The ND leader, Antonis Samaras, was sworn in as prime minister at the head of a broadly pro-MoU coalition government between READ MORE >

Country Risk Service Greece 3rd Quarter

Greece at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
Key changes from last month
Political outlook
Economic policy outlook
Economic forecast

Risk assessment
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk

Rating definitions
Sovereign risk
Currency risk
Banking sector risk
Political risk
Economic structure risk
Overall country risk

Central scenario for 2012-16: Political stability

Central scenario for 2012-16: Election watch

Central scenario for 2012-16: International relations

Central scenario for 2012-16: Policy trends

Central scenario for 2012-16: Fiscal policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Monetary policy

Central scenario for 2012-16: Economic growth

Central scenario for 2012-16: Inflation

Central scenario for 2012-16: Exchange rates

Central scenario for 2012-16: External sector

Key risk indicators

Ratings summary

Quarterly indicators

International assumptions summary

Economic structure

Public finances

Exchange rates, interest rates and prices

Financial sector

Current account

Foreign payment and liquidity indicators

External trade

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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