Vietnam Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 69
The Vietnam Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Vietnam's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk). However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively.
Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (VNDbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At October 2011 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (VNDbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Vietnam Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Vietnam Political SWOT 8
Vietnam Economic SWOT 9
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 14
Asia Outlooks 22
Trade Finance Growth Set To Slow 22
Asia Banking Sector Forecast Overview 26
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 26
Table: Asia Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 27
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 28
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 29
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 30
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 31
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 32
Vietnam Specific Banking Sector Outlook 33
Assessing The Risks Behind Vietinbank's Debt Issue 33
Economic Outlook 37
Table: Vietnam – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Market Structure 40
Protagonists 40
Table: Protagonists In Vietnam's Commercial Banking Sector 40
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 40
List Of Banks 41
Table: Financial Institutions In Vietnam 41
Company Profiles 44
Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (Vietcombank) 44
Table: Vietnam Stock Market Indicators 45
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (US$mn) 45
Table: Vietnam Key Ratios (%) 45
VietinBank 46
Table: Key Statistics For VietinBank, 2005-2008 (VNDmn) 47
Agribank 48
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 49
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (US$mn) 49
Table: Vietnam Key Ratios (%) 49
Asia Commercial Bank 50
Table: Vietnam Stock Market Indicators 51
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 51
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (US$mn) 51
Table: Vietnam Key Ratios (%) 52
Eximbank 53
Table: Balance Sheet (VNDmn, unless stated) 54
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 54
Table: Key Ratios (%) 54
Vietnam Technological and Commercial Joint-stock Bank (Techcombank) 55
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 56
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (US$mn) 56
Table: Vietnam Key Ratios (%) 56
Viet A Joint Stock Commercial Bank (Vietabank) 57
Table: Vietnam Stock Market Indicators 57
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 58
Table: Vietnam Balance Sheet (US$mn) 58
Table: Vietnam Key Ratios (%) 59
Housing Development Commercial Joint Stock Bank (HDBank) 60
Sacombank 61
Table: Stock Market Indicators 62
Table: Balance Sheet (VNDmn, unless stated) 62
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 63
Table: Key Ratios (%) 63
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 64
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 66
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68
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