Thailand Telecommunications Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 102
The Thailand Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's telecommunications industry.
New and revised data for the fixed-line, mobile and broadband markets have become available since BMI last updated the Thailand Telecommunications Report, and these data have been integrated into our analyses and five-year forecasts. In addition, the two mobile market leaders – AIS and DTAC – have disclosed data relating to the first quarter of 2012, while the regulator has supplied estimated data for the rest of the market. Furthermore, BMI has a dimmer outlook for Thailand's economy growth in the wake of severe flooding that impacted on local and multinational businesses in 2011, and this has affected the country's standing with respect to its regional peers in terms of Risk/Reward Ratings.
The Thai market supported 77.605mn mobile subscribers at the end of 2011, up by 8.2% from 71.726mn a year earlier. The penetration rate stood at 113.3% at the end of 2011 and, based on the understanding that this prepaid-focused market is based on multiple SIM ownership, BMI believes there are a number of accounts being reported by operators that may technically be invalid. The buoyant tourism industry may also give rise to a large number of accounts that have only short lifespans. During 2011, AIS, DTAC and True all launched 3G/3.5G services using spectrum and infrastructure owned by state incumbents TOT and CAT Telecom; the legality of these arrangements is being questioned by the operators and the regulator and may yet be revoked. However, the 3G genie will be hard to return to the bottle with as many as 4mn subscribers potentially signed up by end-2011. BMI foresees 3G subscriber numbers increasing to 10.1mn by end-2012 and to 33.2mn by 2016, helping overall mobile subscriptions grow to 92.5mn by the end of the forecast period.
The fixed-line market, meanwhile, continues to contract, though not as fast as previous regulator-supplied data suggested. The number of fixed lines fell by 3.8% in 2011 to reach 6.66mn. Continued mobile substitution and the replacement of fixed broadband accesses in favour of smartphone and tablet-powered mobile connections will ensure that the number of fixed lines will decline to 5.55mn by 2016. Rural areas will remain dependent on legacy lines for many years while it remains uneconomic for mobile operators to reach into these low-income markets.
Double- and triple-play packages are helping operators such as True and Triple T to continue growing their fixed broadband user bases, though this is not necessarily reflected in ARPUs as price competition and regular promotional offers weigh on income from such services. BMI forecasts 5.35mn broadband subscriptions by 2016, up from 3.79mn at the end of 2011.
ARPU growth constraints plus the gloomier outlook for GDP growth in 2012 and beyond forced a small downgrade to Thailand's scores for Industry Rewards and Country Risk in this quarter's Risk/Reward Ratings update. Thailand slipped from 13th to 14th position relative to its Asian peers.
SWOT Analysis 6
Thailand Wireline (Fixed Line & Broadband) SWOT 6
Thailand Mobile SWOT 6
Thailand Political SWOT 7
Thailand Economic SWOT 8
Thailand Business Environment SWOT 9
Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Asia Pacific 10
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings 15
Thailand 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 18
Mobile 18
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 18
ARPU 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Fixed Line 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 22
Internet 24
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 24
Market Data Analysis 26
Mobile Market Overview 26
Table: Thai Mobile Market, Q112 27
Table: Thai Mobile Net Additions Market, Q112 28
Subscriber Mix 29
Table: Thailand Operator Subscriber Mix (‘000) 29
MOU & ARPU 30
Table: Blended Minutes Of Use By Operator (min) 30
3G 33
Mobile Contract Wins 38
Table: Key Mobile Contract Wins 38
Mobile Operator Data 39
Table: Thailand Market Overview 39
Table: AIS 39
Table: DTAC 41
Table: True 42
Mobile Content 44
Regional Outlook 44
Table: Selected NFC Developments, 2011 45
Country Outlook 49
Value-Added Services Timeline 51
Table: Selected VAS Services (2009-2011) 51
Fixed Line 52
Internet 55
WiMAX 59
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments 62
Table: Wireline Developments, 2009-2011 62
Regulatory Environment & Industry Developments 63
Table: Thailand’s Regulatory Bodies And Their Responsibilities 63
3G Licensing 64
Regulatory Developments 66
Competitive Landscape 69
Key Players 69
Table: Key Players – Thai Telecoms Sector 69
Table: Selected Operators’ Financial Results (US$mn) 70
Company Monitor 71
Samsung Electronics 71
Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) 71
Operator Profiles 76
TOT 76
True Corporation 80
Advanced Info Service (AIS) 83
DTAC 86
Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 89
Fixed Line 89
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 89
Mobile 90
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 90
Broadband 91
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 91
Demographic Outlook 92
Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 93
Thailand's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 93
Thailand's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 94
Thailand's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 95
Glossary Of Terms 96
Table: Glossary Of Terms 96
BMI Methodology 97
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 97
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 97
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 99
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 99
Table: Ratings Indicators 100
Weighting 101
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 101
Sources 101
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