Singapore Telecommunications Report Q3 2012

The Singapore Telecommunications Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, telecommunication associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Singapore's telecommunications industry.

Despite its small population, with significantly lower subscriber growth potential compared with regional peers such as Japan and Indonesia, Singapore remains one of the more attractive investment destinations due to factors such as the country’s strong macroeconomic fundamentals, stable political environment, a competent regulator and technology-savvy consumers who are receptive of new products and services.

Singapore’s mobile industry grew by 0.5% q-o-q in Q112, which was the lowest since Q110 when it increased by 0.4% q-o-q or 30,000 subscribers. We believe that the weak performance is both structural and cyclical and it poses a downside risk to our end-2012 forecast. We have retained our forecast of 8.144mn mobile subscribers at end-2012 as we expect the market to recover in the remainder of the year.

The fixed-line sector is projected to reach a peak of 2.037mn in 2013 largely due to the continued bundling of traditional fixed lines with more popular services such as mobile and broadband by operators.

However, we expect consumers and businesses to opt for alternative solutions such as VoIP as their reliability improves. Meanwhile, we expect mobile solutions to continue driving growth in the broadband industry. Besides 3G, LTE should grow in popularity with the launch of more compatible devices, although fibre broadband will also chip in, having shown positive initial take-up figures.

In Q312, the Infocomm Development Authority of Singapore has published its proposed framework for the reallocation of spectrum for 4G services in April, which could lead to near-ubiquitous next generation mobile network coverage in 2016. The regulator is proposing to refarm spectrum in the 1,800MHz, 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz bands, and its preliminary position is to make spectrum available in all three bands in the upcoming refarming exercise (late 2012 or early 2013), which will give operators better network planning ability due to the asynchronous expiry of the 1,800MHz and the 2.3GHz and 2.5GHz bands.

OpenNet, the company responsible for the deployment of the Next Generation Nationwide Broadband Network, has announced that coverage for the fibre network has reached more than 90% of homes and businesses, and it is it is scheduled to reach its promise of 95% of all Singapore premises by July 2012.

Initial take-up rate of the services has been promising with 132,100 subscribers at the end of March 2012. Singapore retained its second rank position in BMI’s Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings with a Telecoms Rating score of 73.3. Despite a decidedly weak external demand outlook, Singapore managed to post nominal y-o-y growth of 6.1% in Non-Oil Domestic Exports in Q112. Still, we caution that China, Singapore's largest national export market, has yet to see the bottom of its structural economic woes, while demand from the EU will also be under pressure as the eurozone crisis continues to simmer. Even with expectations for just 1.8% real growth in exports in 2012, though, the city-state's current account surplus should decline only slightly from SGD71.7bn (21.4% of GDP) in 2011 to SGD67.7bn (18.9% of GDP) in 2012. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Singapore Mobile SWOT 6

Singapore Wireline SWOT 6

Singapore Political SWOT 7

Singapore Economic SWOT 8

Singapore Business Environment SWOT 9

Risk/Reward Ratings 10

Asia Pacific 10
Table: Asia Pacific Telecoms Risk/Reward Ratings 15

Singapore 16

Industry Forecast Scenario 17

Mobile 17
Table: Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 17

ARPU 19
Table: Mobile ARPU – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (SGD) 19

Fixed Line 21
Table: Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 21

Internet 22
Table: Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 22

Market Data Analysis 24

Mobile 24
Table: Singapore Mobile Market, March 2012 24
Table: Singapore's Subscriber Base ('000) 25

ARPU 26
Table: ARPU Growth 26

3G 27

Mobile Contract Wins 29
Table: Mobile Contract Wins, 2008-2011 29

Mobile Operator Data 30
Table: Singapore Market Overview 30
Table: SingTel Mobile 31
Table: StarHub 32
Table: M1 33

Mobile Content 34

Regional Outlook 34

Selected NFC Developments, 2011 36

Country Outlook 40

SMS 40

Value-Added Services Timeline 41
Table: Selected VAS Launched, 2010-2012 41

Fixed Line 42

International Traffic Lines 42

Internet 44

Broadband 44
Table: Composition Of Broadband Internet Access Subscribers (‘000) 46

Mobile Broadband 46

Pay-TV 49

Wireline Developments 50
Table: Wireline (Fixed-Line And Broadband) Developments 50

Regulatory Environment And Industry Developments 51
Table: Division Of Regulatory Responsibilities In Singapore 51

Next Generation National Infocomm Infrastructure 51

Regulatory Developments 52

Industry Developments 53

Competitive Landscape 54
Table: Key Players – Singapore Telecoms Sector 54
Table: Selected Operators – Financial Indicators, 2004-2011 (US$mn) 54

Company Monitor 55

Samsung Electronics 55
Table: Samsung Electronics Financial Performance (KRWbn) 55

Selected Operator Profiles 60

Singapore Telecommunications (SingTel) 60

SingTel Mobile 66

StarHub 69

M1 74

Regional Telecommunications Penetration Overview 78

Fixed Line 78
Table: Regional Fixed-Line Penetration Overview 78

Mobile 79
Table: Regional Mobile Penetration Overview 79

Broadband 80
Table: Regional Broadband Penetration Overview 80

Demographic Outlook 81

Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 82

Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 83

Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 84

Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 84

Glossary Of Terms 85
Table: Glossary Of Terms 85

BMI Methodology 86

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 86
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 86

Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 88

Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 88
Table: Ratings Indicators 89

Weighting 90
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 90

Sources 90