Ukraine Food and Drink Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 120
The Ukraine Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's food and drink industry.
Ukraine’s GDP per capita is expected to remain one of the lowest in Europe over the decade ahead.
While there is still enormous unrealised potential in terms of political reform and economic growth, without institutional and economic reform, Ukraine’s current economic growth model will prove unsustainable over the coming 10 years. On the back of stagnating exports, rising import bills and a crippled banking sector, we believe the government’s real GDP forecast of 3.9% in 2012 is overly optimistic, and maintain our expectation for economic activity to increase by just 2.5% instead.
Headline Industry Data (local currency)
- 2012 per capita food consumption = +7.9%; forecast to 2016 = +40.4%
- 2012 alcoholic drinks value sales = +12.5%; forecast to 2016 = +46.0%
- 2012 soft drinks value sales = +12.6; forecast to 2016 = +43.4%
- 2012 mass grocery retail = +10.6%; forecast to 2016 = +53.0% Key Company Trends Ukraine/Russia Cheese Dispute Benefits Danone: Food giant Danone has said that it is benefiting from the ongoing dispute between Ukraine and Russia over cheese imports. Officials at Danone’s unit in Ukraine told just-food.com that the ban on some Ukrainian cheese products in Russia has pushed down milk prices. The ban has led domestic cheese producers to decrease production which has resulted in more milk being available on the market. Russian consumer goods watchdog Rospotrebnadzor recently barred imports of cheese made by three Ukrainian producers, claiming the companies used excessive quantities of palm oil, a cheaper substitute for milk. Russia accounted for 80% of Ukrainian cheese exports in 2011.
Budweiser Launched in Ukraine: In spring 2012, AB InBev subsidiary Sun InBev launched the Budweiser brand in Ukraine, making it the 87th country around the world where the beer is being sold.
The brewer also announced that Ukraine is one of its eight priority markets along with Brazil and Russia. By the end of the year the goal is for the brand to achieve a 1% share of the local beer market and a 4% share in the premium and super-premium segments.
Key Risks To Outlook Impact of Euro 2012: Significant attention has been afforded to Ukraine’s co-hosting of the UEFA Euro 2012 Football Championship with Poland in June, and the potential for this to provide an upside boost to the economy. Although we believe there is some scope for this event to assist growth in private consumption, particularly in the services sector, the event has been plagued by poor publicity in recent months, and has been overshadowed to some extent by the London Olympics due to be held the month after in July. While some boost to growth is likely to be generated, we remain sceptical towards ambitious expectations of a surge in economic activity.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 9
Ukraine Food Industry SWOT 9
Ukraine Drink Industry SWOT 10
Ukraine Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 11
Business Environment 12
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 12
Table: Core Views 20
CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Table: Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings, Q312 (scores out of 10) 22
Table: CEE Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 25
Ukraine’s Food & Drink Business Environment Ratings 26
Macroeconomic Outlook 27
Table: Economic Activity 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 31
Consumer Outlook 31
Food 33
Consumption 33
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 34
Confectionery 34
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 35
Canned And Processed Foods 36
Table: Meat 36
Table: Jams & Jellies 37
Table: Pasta 38
Table: Snack Foods 39
Dairy 40
Table: Dairy 40
Drink 43
Alcoholic Drinks 43
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 44
Soft Drinks 44
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 45
Hot Drinks 46
Table: Hot Drinks Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts 46
Mass Grocery Retail 47
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts 48
Table: Grocery Retail Sales By Format (%) 49
Trade 49
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts 50
Food 51
Key Industry Trends And Developments 51
Ukraine/Russia Cheese Dispute Benefits Danone 51
Nestlé Ukraine Outperforms Rest Of Europe 51
Agriculture Continues To Attract Interest 52
Government Calls For Greater Investment Into Agriculture 53
Dairy Industry Consolidates And Changes Direction 53
Market Overview 55
Food Processing 55
Key Players 56
Confectionery 57
Trade 58
Agriculture 59
Drink 61
Key Industry Trends And Developments 61
Budweiser Launched In Ukraine 61
Anadolu Efes Looks For Acquisitions 61
Oasis CIS Seeks Expansion Through Acquisition 62
Foreign Players Eye Potential Of Alcoholic Drinks Industry 62
The Beer Industry Seems To Be Growing Against The Odds 63
Ukrainian Spirits Majors Targeting Russia 64
Market Overview 64
Alcoholic Drinks 64
Beer 65
Wine 66
Spirits 67
Soft Drinks 68
Hot Drinks 70
Mass Grocery Retail 72
Key Industry Trends And Developments 72
Ukraine Consumers Turn To MGR Outlets 72
Retail Space Expanding Despite Economic Adversity 72
Private Label Gaining Importance In Light Of Economic Difficulties 73
Investment Into Hypermarkets Continues 74
Supermarket Expansion Also On Cards 74
Market Overview 75
Leading Retailers 76
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Market By Number Of Outlets 79
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format 79
Table: Average Annual Sales By Outlet Type, 2010 80
Competitive Landscape 81
Table: Key Players In Ukraine’s Food Sector 81
Table: Key Players In Ukraine’s Drink Sector 82
Table: Key Players In Ukraine’s Mass Grocery Retail Industry 83
Company Monitor 85
Food 85
Ukrproduct 85
Myronivsky Hliboproduct (MHP) 87
Danone-Unimilk (Halakton) 89
Roshen 91
Konti 93
Astarta-Kyiv 94
Drink 95
Sun InBev Ukraine 95
Slavutich Carslberg (Baltic Beverages Holding Ukraine) 97
Obolon 99
Odessa Champagne Factory 101
Nemiroff 102
Mass Grocery Retail 104
Fozzy Group 104
Billa 106
ATB Market 108
Auchan 109
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 110
Table: Rewards 110
Table: Risks 111
Weighting 111
Table: Weighting 111
Demographic Outlook 112
Table: Ukraine’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 113
Table: Ukraine’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 114
Table: Ukraine’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 115
Table: Ukraine’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 115
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 116
Food & Drink 116
Mass Grocery Retail 116
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 118
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 118
Sourcing 119
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW4
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
