Greece Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 62
The Greece Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Greece's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: At the time of writing, Greece was struggling to form a government and close to abandoning the Euro. Energy policy is low on the agenda in terms of political priorities, and near-term growth prospects are understandably poor. While overall IOC investment in Greece is likely to remain limited until political and fiscal stability has been achieved, there is clearly an interest in acquiring a controlling stake in gas distributor DEPA, which hints at the potential of the country’s long-term gas market.
The key trends and developments in the Greek oil & gas sector are:
- Russian gas giant Gazprom is among 14 firms that have expressed initial interest in buying Greece's state gas firm DEPA, according to the Greek government in April 2012. According to a statement by Greece's privatisation agency, other potential suitors that may submit indicative bids for DEPA include Azerbaijan's SOCAR, Japan's Mitsui, Spain's Enagas and Gas Natural, Italy's ENI and Edison, Algeria's Sonatrach, Russia's Negusneft and the Israel Corporation Ltd. Gazprom already provides most of the gas DEPA uses. Edison is cooperating with the Greek industry on plans to lay an underwater gas pipeline in the Adriatic Sea.
- Antonis Samaras, the head of Greece's Conservative New Democracy party, has put forward a proposal to establish an economic exploration zone (EEZ) to exploit offshore oil and gas reserves. He stated that the move could allow the country to improve its debt position. However, the proposed EEZ is expected to lead to disputes between Greece and Turkey over land, air, sea and sea-floor borders in the Aegean, after the latter opposed similar plans touted by Cyprus.
- Natural gas consumption, which was estimated to have been 3.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011, is expected to continue increasing over the medium to long term. BMI is forecasting 3.7bcm by 2016 and 4.3bcm by 2021. The dire state of the economy has slowed growth in gas consumption; however, infrastructure will still be developed for local use, with new power stations to be gasfired and the country securing sources of imported gas.
- In 2011, the country imported up to 2bcm of liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to BMI estimates. There are plans to import gas from Qatar via a new receiving terminal. By 2021, we believe Greece could be importing up to 4bcm of LNG.
- Although there is scope for medium- to long-term stability in domestic oil production, there is considerable uncertainty over the scale and the timing of any new field development. Beyond the expected energy market weakness in 2012-2013, the country’s oil consumption is forecast to rise and is expected to reach 358,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2016 and 399,000 b/d by 2021.
The 2016 oil import bill is forecast to come in at US$12.66bn, rising to US$13.87bn by the end of our 10- year forecast period in 2021. With gas imports due to cost US$1.83bn in 2016, the total petroleum import cost in 2016 is forecast at US$14.49bn. By 2021, gas imports are due to cost US$2.05bn, resulting in a total petroleum import cost of US$15.92bn. At the time of writing, we anticipate an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl), falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$99.00 and US$97.00/bbl, respectively.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Greece Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Greece Energy Market Overview 20
Table: Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 21
Table: Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Oil and Gas Reserves 24
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 25
Liquefied Natural Gas 25
Refining And Oil Products Trade 25
Revenues/Import Costs 25
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 26
Oil Refineries 26
Table: Refineries In Greece 26
Service Stations 26
Oil Storage Facilities 26
Oil Terminals/Ports 26
Oil Pipelines 26
LNG Terminals 27
Gas Storage Terminals 27
Gas Pipelines 27
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 30
Table: Developed States Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Table: Developed States Downstream Risk-/Reward Ratings 34
Greece Upstream Rating – Overview 35
Greece Upstream Rating – Rewards 35
Greece Upstream Rating – Risks 35
Greece Downstream Rating – Overview 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Executive Summary 36
Table: Key Players – Greece Oil And Gas Sector 37
Overview/State Role 37
Licensing and Regulation 37
International Energy Relations 38
Table: Key Downstream Players 38
Company Monitor 39
Hellenic Petroleum 39
DEPA 42
DESFA – Summary 43
Motor Oil (Hellas) – Summary 44
Gas Supply Companies (EPAs) – Summary 44
Energean Oil & Gas – Summary 44
Former IOC Players 45
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 46
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 46
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 46
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 47
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 47
Table: Refinery Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 48
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 48
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 49
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 50
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 50
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 51
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 51
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports) – Long-Term Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 51
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 53
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 54
Ratings Overview 54
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 55
Indicators 55
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 55
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 56
Glossary Of Terms 58
Table: Glossary Of Terms 58
BMI Methodology 60
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 60
Energy Industry 60
Cross checks 61
Sources 61
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW6
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
