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Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Description:
The Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Trinidad and Tobago's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Times are tough for Trinidad & Tobago’s oil and gas industry, with 2011 oil output having slumped, and US demand for the country’s gas exports on the slide. The government expects an upturn in 2012 drilling activity and, with several new smaller international oil companies (IOCs) now involved as well as a 2012 deepwater bidding round, there is scope to slow the rate of decline in oil production.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) Oil and Gas sector are:
- Upstream companies operating in T&T will invest US$3bn in oil and gas exploration activities over 2012, Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine said in February 2012. Some 15 exploration wells will be drilled, mainly by Canada-based companies Parex Resources and Niko Resources and by BP, he said. Five drilling rigs are currently operating in the country, with six seismic programmes continuing or starting in 2012.
- BP Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT) plans to spend US$1.1bn in 2012, which will include seismic surveys of its existing acreage, its president said at an energy conference in T&T in February.
- Bayfield Energy made discovery in T&T’s Galeota block in March. Preliminary estimates extrapolated from the first well indicate that the area could hold 32mn barrels of oil, with potential for production greater than 1,000 barrels per day (b/d).
- A new deepwater licensing round was launched in April 2012 for six offshore oil and gas blocks in north-eastern and eastern Trinidad. The bidding round will close on July 30 and the winners will be announced by the end of October this year.
- T&T’s government signed production sharing agreements with BPTT and BG Group for deepwater blocks in the Atlantic in May 2012.
- We estimate that crude oil and gas liquids production fell by almost 24% in 2011 largely due to maintenance activity and unexpected field disruptions. There should be some recovery in 2012, but the overall trend is one of falling output unless substantial investment can unlock new volumes. We are forecasting supply of 137,500b/d in 2012, easing to 126,500b/d by 2016. Output could be no more than 111,000b/d by 2021. Given demand is set to rise from an estimated 43,700b/d to 67,810b/d over the period, net exports by 2021 are set to be just 42,700b/d.
- The short- to medium-term outlook for the country’s gas sector is somewhat more positive, as T&T will remain an important regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. Gas production is forecast to rise from a projected 43.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 47.0bcm in 2015-2016 as new projects come onstream. However, with US purchases in decline and plenty of gas market competition, the volume of gas sold remains unpredictable. That said, we believe exports should be around 20-21bcm throughout the forecast period.
- By 2016, T&T’s oil and gas exports are set to yield US$14.0bn, falling towards US$11.5bn by 2021 as oil export volumes are reduced and gas sales volumes remain fairly constant. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from our estimate of 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a slowdown in China and significant uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.3%.
BMI View: Times are tough for Trinidad & Tobago’s oil and gas industry, with 2011 oil output having slumped, and US demand for the country’s gas exports on the slide. The government expects an upturn in 2012 drilling activity and, with several new smaller international oil companies (IOCs) now involved as well as a 2012 deepwater bidding round, there is scope to slow the rate of decline in oil production.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) Oil and Gas sector are:
- Upstream companies operating in T&T will invest US$3bn in oil and gas exploration activities over 2012, Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine said in February 2012. Some 15 exploration wells will be drilled, mainly by Canada-based companies Parex Resources and Niko Resources and by BP, he said. Five drilling rigs are currently operating in the country, with six seismic programmes continuing or starting in 2012.
- BP Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT) plans to spend US$1.1bn in 2012, which will include seismic surveys of its existing acreage, its president said at an energy conference in T&T in February.
- Bayfield Energy made discovery in T&T’s Galeota block in March. Preliminary estimates extrapolated from the first well indicate that the area could hold 32mn barrels of oil, with potential for production greater than 1,000 barrels per day (b/d).
- A new deepwater licensing round was launched in April 2012 for six offshore oil and gas blocks in north-eastern and eastern Trinidad. The bidding round will close on July 30 and the winners will be announced by the end of October this year.
- T&T’s government signed production sharing agreements with BPTT and BG Group for deepwater blocks in the Atlantic in May 2012.
- We estimate that crude oil and gas liquids production fell by almost 24% in 2011 largely due to maintenance activity and unexpected field disruptions. There should be some recovery in 2012, but the overall trend is one of falling output unless substantial investment can unlock new volumes. We are forecasting supply of 137,500b/d in 2012, easing to 126,500b/d by 2016. Output could be no more than 111,000b/d by 2021. Given demand is set to rise from an estimated 43,700b/d to 67,810b/d over the period, net exports by 2021 are set to be just 42,700b/d.
- The short- to medium-term outlook for the country’s gas sector is somewhat more positive, as T&T will remain an important regional liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter. Gas production is forecast to rise from a projected 43.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2012 to 47.0bcm in 2015-2016 as new projects come onstream. However, with US purchases in decline and plenty of gas market competition, the volume of gas sold remains unpredictable. That said, we believe exports should be around 20-21bcm throughout the forecast period.
- By 2016, T&T’s oil and gas exports are set to yield US$14.0bn, falling towards US$11.5bn by 2021 as oil export volumes are reduced and gas sales volumes remain fairly constant. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US111.47/bbl, falling to US$107.00/bbl in 2013. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.6%, down from our estimate of 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a slowdown in China and significant uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt situation. For 2013, growth is estimated at 3.3%.
Contents:
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview 19
Table: Upstream Project Database 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil And Gas Reserves 24
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade 27
Revenues/Import Costs 27
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Storage Facilities 30
Oil Terminals/ Ports 30
LNG Terminals 30
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago 30
Gas Storage Facilities 31
Gas Pipelines 31
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
T&T Upstream Rating – Overview 37
T&T Upstream Rating – Rewards 37
T&T Upstream Rating – Risks 37
T&T Downstream Rating – Overview 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Executive Summary 38
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players 39
Overview/State Role 40
Licensing And Regulation 40
Government Policy 41
Licensing Rounds 41
Table: Key Upstream Players 43
Table: Key Downstream Players 43
Company Monitor 44
Petroleum Company of T&T (Petrotrin) 44
The National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC) 46
BP Energy Company of Trinidad & Tobago (BPTT) 50
BG Trinidad & Tobago 52
BHP Petroleum Trinidad 55
Centrica 57
EOG Resources 59
Sinopec – Summary 61
Chevron – Summary 61
Repsol YPF – Summary 61
Total – Summary 61
ALNG – Summary 62
Unipet – Summary 62
Niko Resources – Summary 62
Others – Summary 62
Latin America – Regional Appendix 65
Table: Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 65
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 66
Table: Oil Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 66
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) 67
Table: Oil Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 67
Table: Oil Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 68
Table: Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 68
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 69
Table: Gas Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 69
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 70
Table: LNG Exports, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 70
Table: LNG Exports, Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 71
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 72
Glossary Of Terms 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 75
Ratings Overview 75
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 76
Indicators 76
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 76
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 77
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 79
Energy Industry 79
Cross checks 80
Sources 80
SWOT Analysis 7
Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview 19
Table: Upstream Project Database 20
Industry Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil And Gas Reserves 24
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 25
LNG 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade 27
Revenues/Import Costs 27
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 28
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Storage Facilities 30
Oil Terminals/ Ports 30
LNG Terminals 30
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago 30
Gas Storage Facilities 31
Gas Pipelines 31
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Latin America Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Table: Latin America Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
T&T Upstream Rating – Overview 37
T&T Upstream Rating – Rewards 37
T&T Upstream Rating – Risks 37
T&T Downstream Rating – Overview 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Executive Summary 38
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players 39
Overview/State Role 40
Licensing And Regulation 40
Government Policy 41
Licensing Rounds 41
Table: Key Upstream Players 43
Table: Key Downstream Players 43
Company Monitor 44
Petroleum Company of T&T (Petrotrin) 44
The National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC) 46
BP Energy Company of Trinidad & Tobago (BPTT) 50
BG Trinidad & Tobago 52
BHP Petroleum Trinidad 55
Centrica 57
EOG Resources 59
Sinopec – Summary 61
Chevron – Summary 61
Repsol YPF – Summary 61
Total – Summary 61
ALNG – Summary 62
Unipet – Summary 62
Niko Resources – Summary 62
Others – Summary 62
Latin America – Regional Appendix 65
Table: Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 65
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 66
Table: Oil Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 66
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts (000b/d) 67
Table: Oil Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 67
Table: Oil Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 68
Table: Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 68
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 69
Table: Gas Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 69
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 70
Table: LNG Exports, Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 70
Table: LNG Exports, Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 71
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 72
Glossary Of Terms 73
Table: Glossary Of Terms 73
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 75
Ratings Overview 75
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 76
Indicators 76
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 76
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 77
BMI Methodology 79
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 79
Energy Industry 79
Cross checks 80
Sources 80
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