Chile Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 93
The Chile Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: Chile’s intellectual property (IP) regime continues to be a cause of concern for the manufacturers of innovative pharmaceuticals, with the country listed on the Priority Watch List of the 2012 Special 301 report. While the data protection regime has been improved, concern remains over lengthy delays to patent application decisions, as well as over the lack of effective patent enforcement.
Nevertheless, we expect gradual improvement in Chile’s IP regime over our 10-year forecast period, which should support the development of local drug market values, especially considering the government’s investment in the expansion of the primary healthcare network.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: CLP1,508bn (US$3.12bn) in 2011 to CLP1,590bn (US$3.12bn) in 2012; +5.4% in local currency terms and +0.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast broadly unchanged from Q212.
- Healthcare: CLP9,034bn (US$18.67bn) in 2011 to CLP9,940bn (US$19.50bn) in 2012; +10.0% in local currency terms and +4.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast down slightly from Q212, due to use of new historical data.
- Medical devices: CLP256.33bn (US$530mn) in 2011 to CLP267.45bn (US$525mn) in 2012; +4.3% in local currency terms and -1.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast unchanged from Q212. Risk/Reward Rating: In Q312’s America’s pharmaceutical risk/reward ratings (RRRs) matrix, Chile ranks in sixth place out of the 17 countries surveyed, an improvement from its eighth place in Q212, despite its unchanged composite score of 55.2 out of 100. We expect Chile, which has a favourable rewards profile, to climb up the regional matrix over the coming years as operational risks become addressed. Globally, Chile is 37th out of the 95 countries surveyed in total, above Bahrain and below South Africa.
Key Trends And Developments
- In April 2012, the health commission of the Chamber of Deputies in Chile issued a vote on the bill that would permit OTC sales of non-prescription drugs; however, the majority of parliament members voted against the bill. The bill is also not supported by the two deputies of the commission, even though it aims to increase competition in the sale of medicines, thus lowering prices and improving access to drugs.
- The Public Health Institute (ISP) of Chile was quoted by the local press as stating that 54 drug bioequivalence studies had been submitted in 2012, as of February 16 2012. The agency predicts the authorisation of 168 bioequivalent medicines over the entire year. Under resolution 244, bioequivalence studies are focused on products containing active substances used for the treatment of diseases such as cardiovascular, metabolic, central nervous system diseases, infectious diseases, HIV, muscular diseases, cancer and arthritis.
BMI Economic View: The Chilean economy will show strong resilience to global headwinds in 2012, owing to a strong private consumption story and robust, albeit declining, credit growth. While we expect economic growth to moderate slightly in 2012, we believe the Chilean authorities have plenty of ammunition on the monetary and fiscal fronts to shield the domestic economy from negative external shocks. As a result, we maintain our above-consensus real GDP growth forecast of 4.8% for 2012. BMI Political View: The administration of Sebastián Piñera will struggle to reconnect with the electorate for the duration of his tenure, as dissatisfaction with the government's education and energy policies intensifies. While we believe Piñera's reputation has been irreparably tarnished, the opposition coalition remains highly divisive and will fail to fully capitalise on the government's ailing popularity.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Chile Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Chile Political SWOT 8
Chile Economic SWOT 8
Chile Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Americas Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 10
Rewards 11
Risks 12
Chile – Market Summary 14
Regulatory Regime 16
Regulatory Developments 17
Table: Latin American Regulations On Bioequivalence And GMP 18
Intellectual Property Issues 19
Trade Agreements 22
Pricing Regime 23
Table: Pharmaceutical Price Build-Up (%) 23
Reimbursement Regime 24
Industry Developments 25
Epidemiology 25
Non-Communicable Diseases 27
Communicable Diseases 28
Healthcare Sector 29
Healthcare Sector Developments 30
Healthcare Insurance 31
Research And Development 32
Clinical Trials 34
Medical Devices 35
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Overall Market Forecast 37
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 38
Healthcare Market Forecast 39
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 40
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 41
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 41
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 42
Table: Equities 43
Table: FX 45
Table: Fixed Income 46
Prescription Market Forecast 47
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 48
Patented Drug Market Forecast 49
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 50
Generic Drug Market Forecast 51
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 52
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 53
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 54
Table: Forecast 55
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 56
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 59
Medical Device Market Forecast 60
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 61
Other Healthcare Data 62
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 63
Competitive Landscape 64
Pharmaceutical Sector 64
Domestic Industry 64
Foreign Industry 65
Recent Pharmaceutical Industry Developments 66
Pharmaceutical Distribution 67
Pharmaceutical Retail Sector 68
Company Profiles 71
Local Companies 71
Laboratorios Chile (LabChile) 71
Corporación Farmacéutica Recalcine (CFR) 73
Laboratorios Andrómaco 76
Multinational Companies 78
Pfizer 78
Novartis 79
Sanofi 80
GlaxoSmithKline 81
Merck & Co 82
Demographic Outlook 83
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 84
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 85
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 86
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 86
Glossary 87
BMI Methodology 89
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 89
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 90
Ratings Overview 90
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 91
Weighting 92
Table: Weighting Of Components 92
Sources 92
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