Slovenia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 59
The Slovenia Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovenia's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk).
However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively. Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (EURbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At March 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 5
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (EURbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Slovenia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Slovenia Political SWOT 7
Slovenia Economic SWOT 8
Spain Business Environment SWOT 8
Business Environment Outlook 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 10
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 12
Eurozone Banking Sector Forecast Overview 20
LTRO 2: Diminishing Marginal Returns To Crisis Management 20
Market Overview Europe Banking Sector Forecast Overview 24
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 24
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 25
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 26
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 27
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 28
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 29
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 30
Slovenia Banking Sector Outlook 31
Tough Years Still Ahead For Banks 32
Economic Outlook 35
Table: Slovenia – Economic Activity 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Market Structure 38
Table: Protagonists In Slovenia's Commercial Banking Sector 38
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 38
List Of Banks 39
Table: Commercial Banks In Slovenia 39
Table: Savings Banks In Slovenia 39
Company Profiles 40
Nova Ljubljanska banka 40
Nova Kreditna banka Maribor 41
Table: Slovenia Stock Market Indicators 42
Table: Slovenia Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 42
Table: Slovenia Balance Sheet (US$mn) 43
Table: Slovenia Key Ratios (%) 43
Slovenian Export and Development Bank 44
SKB Banka dd Ljubljana 45
Table: Slovenia Stock Market Indicators 45
Banka Celje 46
Banka Koper 47
Table: Slovenia Stock Market Indicators 48
Table: Slovenia Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 48
Table: Slovenia Balance Sheet (US$mn) 49
Table: Slovenia Key Ratios (%) 49
Hypo Alpe Adria Bank 50
Table: Key Statistics For Hypo Alpe Adria Bank, 2007-2008 (EUR '000) 51
Gorenjska banka 52
UniCredit Banka Slovenija 53
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 54
Commercial Bank Business Environment Rating 56
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 57
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 58
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