Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 96
The Serbia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Serbia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View: The short-term outlook for the Serbian pharmaceutical market will continue to be clouded by corruption, debts accrued by the country’s health insurance agency and also the liquidity of the country’s wholesalers. Additionally, the challenging economic situation will hamper the purchase of necessary medicines by the majority of the cash-strapped population, especially as out-of-pocket contribution to healthcare in general stands at almost 40%. We therefore envisage generic medicines gaining further ground on their patented counterparts, although imports will continue to play an important part in the overall market.
Headline Expenditure Projections
- Pharmaceuticals: RSD74.78bn (US$1.02mn) in 2011 to RSD79.30bn (US$934mn) in 2012; +6.0% in local currency terms and -8.4% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Healthcare: RSD335.38bn (US$4.57bn) in 2011 to RSD360.98bn (US$4.25bn) in 2012; +7.6% in local currency terms and -7.0% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly lower from Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
- Medical devices: RSD16.97bn (US$231mn) in 2011 to RSD17.71bn (US$209mn) in 2012; +4.3% in local currency terms and -9.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast lower from Q212 due to macroeconomic factors.
Business Environment Rating: In BMI’s regional Risk/Rewards Rating (RRR) matrix for Q312, Serbia moved up by two places, now ranking 14th out of the 20 key markets surveyed. However, its composite score is unchanged from Q212, with its overall risks and rewards scores both remaining below the regional average. Issues such as insufficient funding for public healthcare and corruption will continue to hamper the development of legitimate medicines market.
Key Trends & Developments
- In May 2012, Serbian drugmaker Hemofarm, a subsidiary of German firm Stada Arzneimittel, started direct sales to state-run pharmacies, which allows it to avoid some wholesalers. The company said the new policy will help it reduce the complexity of the supply chain. Hemofarm previously incurred losses after some Serbian pharmaceutical wholesalers did not make payments for medicines manufactured by the company, which resulted in a write-down for Stada.
- In February 2011, Serbia's state-run health insurance fund secured a 10% write-down of its debt to drugmakers, valued at more than RSD14bn (US$186mn), according to the fund's general manager Aleksandar Vuksanovic. The fund has also promised to accelerate payments for delivery, having negotiated deals with domestic drugmakers Galenika and Jugoremedija for terminating a portion of their claims, as well as reducing some prices for new deliveries.
BMI Economic View: The Serbian economy contracted by an estimated 1.3% in Q112 and public debt breached the constitutional ceiling of 45%. Although the economy is likely to perform better later in the year, we hold to our forecast that real GDP will grow by just 0.4% in 2012. The IMF's suspension of the EUR1.0bn Stand-By Arrangement, uncertainty surrounding the results of the May 6 2012 presidential and parliamentary election – with the incumbent Boris Tadic from the Democrat Party (DP) losing presidency to Tomislav Nikolic from the Progressive Party (SNS), coupled with large fiscal and current account deficits, will weigh on Serbian assets and the country’s wider investment climate.
BMI Political View: Serbia will continue with the EU accession process, despite the incumbent Democrat Party losing the presidency and 35 seats in parliament. Although the election results were not a rejection of the DP's pro-Europe stance – rather, they were a referendum on corruption amid wider economic stagnation – we have downgraded our short-term political outlook for Serbia on the basis of the increased potential for policy gridlock and social instability. Nikolic's victory somewhat undermines the next government's ability to tackle the severe economic challenges facing Serbia, not least a widening fiscal deficit and ballooning public debt.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Serbia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Serbia Political SWOT 8
Serbia Economic SWOT 8
Serbia Business Environment SWOT 8
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Emerging Europe Regional Pharma Risk/Reward Ratings for Q312 10
Rewards 12
Risks 12
Serbia – Market Summary 14
Regulatory Regime 15
Table: The Number of Products on the Drugs List 15
Corruption In The Healthcare Sector 16
Intellectual Property Environment 18
Pricing Regime 19
Price Developments 20
Reimbursement Regime 21
Table: Leading Suppliers of Medicines to RZZO, by Value (RSDmn) 23
Table: Cost of Prescriptions Covered by RZZO by Anatomical Therapeutic Chemical (ATC) Classification (RSD '000) 23
Industry Developments 24
Epidemiology 24
Communicable Diseases 24
Non-Communicable Diseases 25
Healthcare Sector 26
Table: Major General And Specialised Hospitals 26
Healthcare Insurance 28
Healthcare Debts 29
Clinical Trials 30
Medical Devices 31
Table: Medical Device Classification In Serbia 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Overall Market Forecast 33
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 34
Healthcare Market Forecast 35
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 36
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 36
Table: Healthcare Private Indicators 2008-2016 37
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 38
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 45
Table: Drug Sales By ATC Classification System 45
Patented Drug Market Forecast 47
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 48
Generic Drug Market Forecast 49
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 50
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 51
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 52
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 53
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 55
Medical Device Market Forecast 56
Table: Medical Devices Sales Indicators 2008-2016 57
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 58
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 58
Competitive Landscape 59
Investment Climate 59
Pharmaceutical Industry 59
Table: Companies Involved In The Serbian Pharmaceutical Industry 60
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 60
Domestic Company Activity 62
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry 63
Table: Proposed Members Of Serbia’s Pharmaceutical Industry Association 63
Foreign Company Activity 64
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail 65
Company Monitor 66
Indigenous Company Profiles 66
Hemofarm (Stada) 66
Galenika 70
Zdravlje Actavis 74
Jugoremedija 77
Multinational Company Profiles 79
Pfizer 79
GlaxoSmithKline 80
Novartis 81
Sanofi-Aventis 82
Merck & Co 83
Krka 84
Demographic Outlook 86
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 87
Table: Serbia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 88
Table: Serbia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 89
Table: Serbia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 89
Glossary 90
BMI Methodology 92
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 92
Pharmaceuticals Business Environment Ratings 93
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 93
Ratings System 93
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 94
Weighting 94
Table: Weighting Of Components 95
Sources 95
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW4
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
