Slovakia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 69
The Slovakia Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Slovakia's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk).
However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively. Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (EURbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At March 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (EURbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Slovakia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Slovakia Political SWOT 7
Slovakia Economic SWOT 8
Slovakia Business Environment SWOT 8
Business Environment Outlook 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 9
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 9
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 10
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 12
Regional Outlooks 20
LTRO 2: Diminishing Marginal Returns To Crisis Management 20
Regional Banking Sector Outlook 25
Europe Banking Sector Forecast Overview 25
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 25
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 26
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 27
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 28
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 29
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 30
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 31
Slovakia Banking Sector Outlook 32
Outperforming In A Weak Region 32
Table: NPL Thresholds In CESEE 33
Economic Outlook 38
Table: Slovakia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Market Structure 41
Table: Protagonists In Slovakia's Commercial Banking Sector 41
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 42
List Of Banks 42
Table: Commercial And Savings Banks In Slovakia 42
Company Profiles 43
Slovenská Sporitelna 43
Table: Stock Market Indicators 44
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn) 44
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 45
Table: Key Ratios (%) 45
Vseobecná úverová banka (VUB) 46
Table: Stock Market Indicators 46
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn) 47
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 47
Table: Key Ratios (%) 47
Tatra Banka 48
Table: Stock Market Indicators 49
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn) 49
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 49
Table: Key Ratios (%) 50
CSOB 51
UniCredit Bank Slovakia 53
Dexia Banka Slovensko 54
Table: Stock Market Indicators 55
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn, unless stated) 55
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn, unless stated) 56
Table: Key Ratios (%) 56
Prvá Stavebná Sporitelna 57
Table: Stock Market Indicators 58
OTP Banka Slovensko 59
Volksbank Slovensko 60
Table: Stock Market Indicators 61
Table: Balance Sheet (EURmn) 61
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 62
Table: Key Ratios (%) 62
UniCredit Banka Slovenija 63
Postová banka 64
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 65
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 67
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 68
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