Russia Commercial Banking Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 74
The Russia Commercial Banking Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's commercial banking industry.
Since Q108, we have described numerically the banking business environment for each of the countries surveyed by BMI. We do this through our Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating (CBBER), a measure that ensures we capture the latest quantitative information available. It also ensures consistency across all countries and between the inputs to the CBBER and the Insurance Business Environment Rating, which is likewise now a feature of our insurance reports.
Like the Business Environment Ratings calculated by BMI for all the other industries on which it reports, the CBBER takes into account the limits of potential returns and the risks to the realisation of those returns. It is weighted 70% to the former and 30% to the latter. The evaluation of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ includes market elements that are specific to the banking industry of the country in question and elements that relate to that country in general. Within the 70% of the CBBER that takes into account the ‘Limits of potential returns’, the market elements have a 60% weighting and the country elements have a 40% weighting. The evaluation of the ‘Risks to realisation of returns’ also includes banking elements and country elements (specifically, BMI’s assessment of long-term country risk).
However, within the 30% of the CBBER that take into account the risks, these elements are weighted 40% and 60%, respectively. Further details on how we calculate the CBBER are provided at the end of this report. In general, though, three aspects need to be borne in mind in interpreting the CBBERs. The first is that the market elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’ are by far the most heavily weighted of the four elements. They account for 60% of 70% (or 42%) of the overall CBBER. Second, if the market elements are significantly higher than the country elements of the ‘Limits of potential returns’, it usually implies that the banking sector is (very) large and/or developed relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country.
Conversely, if the market elements are significantly lower than the country elements, it usually means that the banking sector is small and/or underdeveloped relative to the general wealth, stability and financial infrastructure in the country. Third, within the ‘Risks to the realisation of returns’ category, the market elements (ie: how regulations affect the development of the sector, how regulations affect competition within it, and Moody’s Investor Services’ ratings for local currency deposits) can be markedly different from BMI’s long-term risk rating.
Executive Summary 5
Table: Levels (RUBbn) 5
Table: Levels (US$bn) 5
Table: Levels At February 2012 5
Table: Annual Growth Rate Projections 2012-2016 (%) 6
Table: Ranking Out Of 59 Countries Reviewed In 2011 6
Table: Projected Levels (RUBbn) 6
Table: Projected Levels (US$bn) 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Commercial Banking SWOT 7
Russia Political SWOT 8
Russia Economic SWOT 9
Russia Business Environment SWOT 10
Business Environment Outlook 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating 11
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 11
Commercial Banking Business Environment Rating Methodology 12
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 13
Global Commercial Banking Outlook 14
Regional Outlooks 22
CEE Banking Sectors Hold Little Promise For Investment Returns 22
Regional Banking Sector Outlook 29
Europe Banking Sector Forecast Overview 29
Table: Banks' Bond Portfolios 2011 29
Table: Emerging Europe Commercial Banking Business Environment Ratings 30
Table: Comparison of Loan/Deposit & Loan/Asset & Loan/GDP ratios 31
Table: Anticipated Developments in 2012 32
Table: Comparison of Total Assets & Client Loans & Client Deposits (US$bn) 33
Table: Comparison of US$ Per Capita Deposits (2011) 34
Table: Interbank Rates and Bond Yields 35
Russia Specific Banking Sector Outlook 36
Banking Sector Holds Great Scope For Investment Returns 36
Economic Outlook 40
Table: Russia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 44
Competitive Landscape 45
Market Structure 45
Protagonists 45
Table: Protagonists In Russia's Commercial Banking Sector 45
Definition Of The Commercial Banking Universe 45
List Of Banks 46
Table: Russia's 10 Largest Banks 46
Company Profiles 47
Alfa-Bank 47
Table: Key Statistics For Alfa-Bank, 2007-2008 (US$ '000) 48
Bank of Moscow 49
Table: Stock Market Indicators 50
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn) 51
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 51
Gazprombank 52
Table: Key Statistics For Gazprombank, 2007-2008 (RUBmn) 53
Rosbank 54
Rosselkhozbank 55
Table: Stock Market Indicators 56
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn) 56
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 56
Table: Key Ratios (%) 57
Sberbank 58
Table: Russia Stock Market Indicators 59
Table: Russia Balance Sheet (LCYmn) 59
Table: Russia Balance Sheet (US$mn) 60
Table: Russia Key Ratios (%) 60
UniCredit Bank 61
VTB 63
Table: Stock Market Indicators 64
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn) 64
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 65
Table: Key Ratios (%) 65
VTB 24 66
ZAO Raiffeisenbank 67
Table: Stock Market Indicators 68
Table: Balance Sheet (RUBmn) 68
Table: Balance Sheet (US$mn) 69
Table: Key Ratios (%) 69
BMI Banking Sector Methodology 70
Table: Commercial Banking Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 72
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 73
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