United States Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 80
The United States Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's petrochemicals industry.
The US Petrochemicals Report examines the long-term potential of the country’s cracker sector which is set to enjoy a resurgence as a result of the Marcellus shale gas reserves. However, the report also raises short-term concerns over the slowdown in the domestic market and the impact of the ongoing eurozone crisis.
The report examines how producers are minimising investment risk and also explores the impact of the increasingly precarious external macroeconomic environment on the US consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters alike to realise returns in the short-term. The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the US petrochemicals industry as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities offered by the local market as well as the leveraging their competitive edge over European producers. In the first four months of 2012, US chemicals output grew just 0.5% year-on-year (y-o-y), with the threemonth moving average for March and April seeing declines of 0.4% and 0.3% respectively, according to figures provided by the American Chemistry Council (ACC). Despite the slowdown in 2012, investment in capacity is accelerating as US natural gas prices have become affordable and relatively stable. In stark contrast to the EU, the US is seeing a resurgence in petrochemicals expansion, having held on to almost all the capacity it possessed before the 2008 financial crisis. Key to this is the Marcellus shale deposits, which have improved the cost position of US petrochemicals.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following views: - BMI believes that the 4% growth forecast for 2012 in the previous quarter now looks overly optimistic and chemicals output is now likely to rise by just 2.5%. The main concern will be the extent to which the eurozone crisis impacts on the US economy.
- By 2016, ethylene production capacity should have exceeded 30mn tonnes per annum (tpa), an increase of around 12% over 2011 levels. Expansion is set to continue during the forecast period, particularly in downstream polymers and olefins. US ethylene production could therefore reach record highs in the coming years.
- The US scores 90.1 points in BMI’s Americas regional petrochemicals ratings, 12.4 points ahead of Canada. The score improved by 2.3 points this quarter as a result of new ethylene projects as well as the improved market risk scenario, both directly related to the competitive ethane feedstock opportunities provided by the Marcellus shale deposits.
BMI Industry View 5
US Political SWOT 6
US Economic SWOT 7
US Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Petrochemicals Overview 9
Petrochemicals Market Overview 9
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 9
Financial Results 13
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 13
US Market Overview 14
Competitive Landscape 15
Upstream 15
Olefins 16
Table: Olefins Production Capacity (‘000tpa) 16
Aromatics 19
Table: Aromatics And Derivatives Capacity (‘000tpa) 20
Mixed Xylenes 21
Table: Xylenes Capacity (‘000tpa) 21
Polyethylene (PE) 22
Table: US Polyethylene Manufacturing And Applications 22
Table: PE Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) 23
High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) 23
Low-Density Polyethylene (LDPE) 24
Linear Low-Density Polyethylene (LLDPE) 25
Polypropylene (PP) 25
Table: US PP Capacity (‘000tpa) 27
Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) 27
Table: PVC Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) 27
Polystyrene (PS) 28
Table: PS Chain Capacity, (‘000tpa) 29
Polyethylene Terephthalate (PET) 30
Table: US Petrochemicals Sector – PET Chain Capacity (‘000tpa) 30
Industry Trends And Developments 32
Latest developments 32
Government Policy And Regulations 35
Collapse Of The PIC-Dow Merger 36
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Petrochemicals Forecasts 37
Table: US Petrochemicals Industry, 2008-2016 38
Risk/Reward Ratings 40
Petrochemicals Business Environment 40
Macroeconomic Outlook 43
Table: United States - GPD By Expenditure, Real Growth (%), 2008-2016 46
Table: United States - GDP Contribution To Growth, 2008-2016 47
Company Profiles 48
BP 48
Chevron Phillips Chemical Company 51
Dow Chemical 53
ExxonMobil 56
Huntsman 58
Ineos 60
LyondellBasell 62
Occidental Chemical 64
Shell Chemicals 66
Westlake Chemical 67
Appendix: BP 69
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 71
Table: The United States' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 71
Table: The United States' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 72
Table: The United States' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 73
Glossary Of Terms 74
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 74
BMI Methodology 75
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 75
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry 75
Cross Checks 76
Business Environment Ratings 77
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 78
Weighting 79
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 79
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