- Language: English
- Published: October 2012
- Region: Colombia
Colombia Infrastructure Report Q3 2012
- Published: July 2012
- Region: Colombia
- 70 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Colombia Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's infrastructure industry.
BMI View: Colombia’s underdeveloped infrastructure fleet remains its biggest obstacle to fully exploiting the country’s growth potential, which stems from a booming extractive sector. However, the government continues to prioritise investment into the construction sector and President Santos has carried through several structural changes, all of which underpins our strong real growth forecast of 5.4% for 2012. The main reasons for this bullish outlook are: healthy economic growth; a free-trade agreement between Colombia and the United States that was signed on May 15 2012; continuing expansion in the resource extracting sector; the 10-year US$55bn transport infrastructure budget; the creation of a national infrastructure agency; and the passing of a public-private partnership (PPP) law to facilitate procurement and propel infrastructure growth.
Key trends and developments in Colombia’s infrastructure industry include:
- Underpinned by strong backing from the Colombian government, we expect the country’s infrastructure industry to experience annual average real growth of just below 6% between 2012 and 2021.
- The infrastructure industry holds significant potential for investors, with real growth of 6.7% forecast for 2012. The residential and non-residential sector will see real growth of 4.3% - a healthy recovery from the 4.9% decline seen in 2010
- Strong economic growth – with real GDP growth of 4.5% forecast for 2012 – and expansion in coal, mining, oil and gas extraction, are creating significant demand for new capacity and better quality infrastructure. Better access to ports and adequate highways will be essential if the country is to meet the expected increase in exports.
Key trends and developments in Colombia’s roads and railways include:
- Road infrastructure industry value accounts for a significant portion of infrastructure value, with the sub-sector forecast to make up 39% of the total in 2012. Following the passing of a PPP law, we anticipate more private interest in the sub-sector.
- Ruta de Sol, the largest planned road project, as well as the largest greenfield public-private partnership (PPP) project awarded in Colombia’s transport sector, has entered the construction phase, highlighting the potential for private procurement in the Colombian infrastructure market.
- Railways have also received renewed attention, with focus on private, as well as foreign, participation. High-profile projects such as the Carare network and the Ferrocarril Central railway project, as well as China’s plans to finance and build a railway-based ‘dry canal’ to link the country’s Caribbean and Pacific coasts, are key drivers behind this revival.
- Bogata Mayor Gustavo Petro is lobbying for a department solely in charge of rail infrastructure; if achieved, this is likely to improve the project design and procurement within the sector. This therefore poses an upside risk to our forecasts.
- Suspension of the construction of the Oriente tunnel, pending an environmental impact assessment, highlights the persistent lack of coherency between government agencies, and consequently poses a downside risk to our forecasts.
However, we highlight that corruption remains a risk factor:
- Colombia scores just 3.7 out of 10 for corruption in the country risk section of our infrastructure risk/reward ratings, following several corruption scandals within Columbia’s public works sector. This illustrates our concern of the impact on the country’s business environment.
- However, a concerted effort is being made to stamp out corruption in awarding tenders. This has been shown by the creation of infrastructure agency ANI, which has replaced INCO as the official entity in charge of infrastructure concessions. This gives us hope for future improvements. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Colombia Infrastructure SWOT 7
Market Overview 8
Competitive Landscape 8
Table: EQS Table 9
Building Materials 10
Cement Forecast 18
Table: Colombia Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 -2016 18
Table: Colombia Cement Production and Consumption Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Table: Colombia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 19
Table: Colombia Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 20
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 22
Transport Infrastructure 26
Table: Colombia Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 26
Table: Colombia Transport Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 28
Transport Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 30
Major Projects Table – Transport 32
Table: Major Projects - Transport 32
Energy And Utilities Infrastructure 36
Table: Colombia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 36
Table: Colombia Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 37
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook and Overview 39
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities 41
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities 41
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 43
Table: Colombia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 43
Table: Colombia Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 2021 43
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview 44
Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Colombia’s Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Regional Overview 48
Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 48
Table: Latin America Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 49
Company Monitor 55
Industry Forecasts 64
Construction Industry 65
Data Methodology 65
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 65
Capital Investment 67
Construction Sector Employment 68
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 68
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 69