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Philippines Petrochemicals Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, July 2012, Pages: 55
The Philippines Petrochemicals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, petrochemical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines's petrochemicals industry.
The Q312 Philippines Petrochemicals Report examines how the external environment and the value of the peso are impacting on local producers over the short term. It also analyses prospects for upstream growth and the potential for monomer feedstock production, which will be key to long-term industry growth. It also assesses the risks and opportunities facing end-markets, particularly the construction sector, which is set to be boosted by investment into infrastructure.
Growth in the domestic resins market is prompting oil and petrochemicals producers in the Philippines to consider investment in downstream industries. In 2011, Petron brought online a polypropylene PP plant at Mariveles, in Bataan, with a capacity of 160,000 tonnes per annum (tpa), expandable to 225,000tpa. It receives feedstock from Petron’s nearby 180,000 barrels a day (b/d) oil refinery at Limay, which can produce 140,000tpa of propylene. Petron is proceeding with its plans to upgrade its refinery to include a fluid catalytic cracker (FCC), with a propylene production capacity of 250,000tpa due from 2014.
Until olefins sources are developed, the main weakness in the Philippines’ petrochemicals industry will remain its dependence on imported ethylene and propylene, as well as aromatics and their derivatives.
Greater competition with foreign resins producers as a result of trade liberalisation could hamper the recovery in output of upstream petrochemicals producers. However, the development of dynamic and growing local petrochemicals consuming industries can only improve the long-term business climate for the industry, with the potential for increased investment in capacity.
Key developments in the sector include: - In BMI’s Asia petrochemicals risk/reward ratings, the Philippines ranks 11th out of 12 countries, scoring 39.6 points. This puts it 11.0 points behind Indonesia and 9.1 points ahead of Vietnam.
- In Q112, the volume of plastic production was up 7.5%. However, chemical output was up just 2.2%, although this follows a year when production surged 22.2%, with production reaching full capacity. BMI is forecasting chemicals volume growth of around 1% in 2012.
- JG Summit Holdings may revive a plan to build the country’s first naphtha cracker plant. The venture would carry a price tag of US$500mn, with construction to take 30 months. The company is in a position to put equity into the project and is seeking to take advantage of growth in the domestic consumption of plastics. However, with no firm plans announced, BMI believes project completion is unlikely before mid-2013.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Philippines Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Philippines Political SWOT 6
Philippines Economic SWOT 7
Philippines Business Environment SWOT 7
Global Petrochemicals Overview 9
Petrochemicals Market Overview 9
Table: World Ethylene Production By Country, 2011 And 2016 (‘000 tonnes capacity) 9
Financial Results 13
Table: Financial Results Of Major Petrochemicals Companies, 2011 13
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 14
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview 23
Philippines Market Overview 29
Industry Trends And Developments 30
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Asia Pacific Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Forecast Scenario 34
Petrochemicals Forecasts 34
Table: Philippines’ Petrochemicals Sector, 2009-2016 (‘000tpa, unless otherwise stated) 35
Macroeconomic Forecast 36
Table: Philippines - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 39
Company Monitor 40
BASF Philippines 40
JG Summit Petrochemicals Corp 41
Petron Corporation 42
Glossary of Terms 45
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 45
BMI Methodology 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 46
Chemicals and Petrochemicals Industry 46
Cross Checks 47
Risk/Reward Ratings 48
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 50
Demographic Outlook 51
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 52
Table: Philippines' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 53
Table: Philippines' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 54
Table: Philippines' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 54