Hungary Infrastructure Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 66
The Hungary Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Hungary's infrastructure industry.
BMI View: We maintain our core view that that the Hungarian construction industry value is on track to bottom out in 2012, with a year-on-year (y-o-y) contraction of 0.2% anticipated. However, we have downgraded our 2013 growth forecast from 0.6% y-o-y growth expected earlier to just 0.1%. This revision highlights the risks to the sector’s growth following EU finance ministers’ decision to withhold EUR495mn in cohesion funds from Hungary in 2013.
An uptick in order bookings for the construction sector during 2011, combined with the slight pickup in activity in late 2011, indicate that the industry is on track to bottom out in 2012. Much of this growth will be driven by growth in the infrastructure sector, where a couple of notable projects should be enough to create growth. The largest source of growth will be power plants and transmission grids, with a new EUR600mn power plant due to enter construction in 2012. However, our expectations of any significant growth in 2013 were dampened by the following factors:
- A 42.5% decline in the orders in the construction industry during 2011 suggests that a large number of investors continue to shy away from the market. The industry recorded a 46.9% y-o-y decline in contract volumes in the residential and non residential sector, in addition to almost a 40% decline in the infrastructure sector over 2011.
- March 2012 saw the EU suspend 30% of Hungary’s Cohesion Funding for 2013, owing to the government's failure to adequately address its fiscal problems. Given that the country has been incredibly reliant on this funding to support infrastructure investment, primarily in the transport sector, we expect the suspension to put dampen industry growth.
- There is greater uncertainty regarding progress in the planned Nabucco pipeline, after Hungarian oil & gas company MOL , in April 2012, revealed its plans to sell its share from the project. The project has already been delayed and there are further doubts about the viability of the project, due to spiralling costs.
On the back of these unfavourable developments, Hungary has seen its score in BMI’s infrastructure risk/reward ratings for Central and Eastern Europe slipping from 57.0 in Q212 to 55.7 points in Q312. With that score, Hungary has moved to 10th place behind Turkey, falling short of the regional average score of 56.3.
With domestic demand looking so depressed, it is not surprising that we expect a greater proportion of Hungarian cement production to be geared towards export markets. Industry estimates show that Hungarian cement producers rely on exports for close to 20% of their total production. However, an annual average y-o-y growth of 7.4% in export demand will see exports account for nearly 27% of total production by 2016.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Hungary Infrastructure SWOT 6
Market Overview 7
Competitive Landscape 7
Table: EQS Data 7
Building Materials 8
Global 8
Europe 11
Table: Cement - Price/Volume % Variances (9m10/9m11) 14
Cement Forecasts 15
Table: Hungary Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 15
Table: Hungary Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 15
Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Table: Hungary Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 17
Table: Hungary Construction And Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 18
Construction and Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 20
Transport Infrastructure 22
Table: Hungary Transport Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 22
Table: Hungary Transport Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 24
Transport Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 26
Major Projects Table – Transport 28
Table: Major Projects - Transport 28
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure 31
Table: Hungary Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 31
Table: Hungary Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Industry Long Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 32
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure Outlook And Overview 34
Major Projects Table – Energy and Utilities 36
Table: Major Projects – Energy And Utilities 36
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 39
Table: Hungary Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data 39
Table: Hungary Residential and Non-residential Building Industry Data 39
Residential/Non-Residential Building Outlook and Overview 40
Major Projects Table – Residential, Non-Residential Construction And Social Infrastructure 41
Table: Major Projects - Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 41
Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Hungary’s Risk/Reward Rating 42
Rewards 42
Risks 42
Regional Overview 43
Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 43
Table: CEE Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 47
Company Monitor 48
Strabag Hungary 48
Vegyepszer 50
KÉSZ Building & Construction 51
Global Overview 53
Methodology 60
Industry Forecasts 60
Construction Industry 61
Data Methodology 61
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 61
Construction 62
Capital Investment 63
Construction Sector Employment 64
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Rating 64
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 65
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW6
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
