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Romania Freight Transport Report Q3 2012
Following a year in which BMI believes growth slowed in all freight modes but one, 2012 will signal further slowdown as freight volumes struggle to return to pre-downturn levels.
Though total trade is also projected to slow, our country risk desk still forecasts a year-on-year (y-o-y) increase of 5.05% in 2012, following growth of 6.85% in 2011. Road freight is to continue to dominate the sector and is projected to grow by 5% in 2012. The sector did not manage to defy the downturn, but appears to have begun its recovery and is ready to defy EU pledges of a decrease in road haulage across the region.
BMI notes that rail, the likeliest candidate in Romania's freight transport mix to benefit from any diversification away from road, is expected to see the privatisation of a 51% stake in CFR Marfa, Romania's national rail freight company and the largest rail freight operator in the country, by the end of 2012.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Air freight tonnage is expected to grow by 1.3%
- 2012 Rail freight is forecast to grow by 1.2%
- 2012 Port of Constantza throughput is forecast to decrease by 4.5%
- 2012 Road freight is forecast to grow by 5.1%
- 2012 Inland waterway freight is forecast to grow by 6.3%
- 2012 Total real trade growth is forecast at 5.1%. Key Industry Trends CFR Marfa Gets Privatisation Consultant In the latest chapter of the privatisation saga, Romania's Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure named in April 2012 the consultants to help privatise the loss-making national rail freight company, and the largest rail freight operator in the country, CFR Marfa. Privatisation of a 51% stake in the company is expected to be completed by October 2012.
GFR Looks Abroad While Romania's largest rail freight carrier awaits privatisation, Grup Feroviar Român (GFR), a private company and the country's second largest rail freight operator, was reported to be looking to expand its operations into Greece.
Global Logistics Providers Expand Romania Services Hellmann Worldwide Logistics has extended its service to Romania, while CEVA Logistics also opened a Romanian office to enhance its Eastern European freight management operations.
Constantza to Improve Railway Infrastructure The project focusing on the development of the railway capacity in the river-maritime area of Romania's main port, Constantza, is to go ahead, after the contract for the execution works was finally signed following the decision of the Bucharest Court of Appeal. Increasing the railway capacity for the transport of dry bulk cargoes from and to the port and boosting freight transit volumes on trans-European transport network (TEN-T) via Constantza are among the project's objectives.
LNG And China's Products At Constantza A feasibility study of Romania's AGRI project, involving the transportation of liquefied gas from Azerbaijan to Romania via Georgia's Black Sea coast, will be completed in September 2012. As part of the project, a regasification terminal will be built in Constantza to receive gas supplies. In a separate development, the country wants to turn the Port of Constantza into a gateway for China's exports to the EU.
Risks to Outlook BMI highlights the freight modes exposed to the transport of containers as the areas with risk to the upside. Container throughput will be driven by the country's consumers, with consumer demand in Romania forecast to slightly strengthen. The country's real GDP is estimated to increase by 1.4% in 2012.
A downside risk to our forecasts comes in the form of Romania's heavy exposure to the eurozone. Decreasing demand will affect the country's ports and freight transport network and its export growth is forecast to slow to 4.9% in 2012. The Port of Constantza's role as a gateway for trade to and from landlocked Central Europe might also be affected.
SWOT Analysis 7
Romania Freight Transport Industry SWOT 7
Romania Political SWOT 7
Romania Economic SWOT 8
Romania Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Trends And Developments 9
Intermodal And Logistics 11
Market Overview 13
Industry Forecast 16
Table: Air Freight, 2008-2016 (’000 tonnes) 16
Table: Maritime Freight – Throughput, 2008-2016 (’000 tonnes) 17
Table: Rail Freight, 2008-2016 17
Table: Road Freight, 2008-2016 18
Inland Waterways 18
Table: Inland Waterway Freight, 2007-2016 18
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016 19
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 (US$mn) 19
Table: Romania's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 20
Table: Romania's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 20
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 21
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 21
Political Outlook 30
Domestic Politics 30
Long-Term Political Outlook 32
Macroeconomic Outlook 35
Table: Romania - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 37
Company Profiles 38
TAROM Cargo 38
DB Schenker Romtrans 40
CFR Marfa 42
Country Snapshot: Romania Demographic Data 44
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 45
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 46
Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 47
Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 47
BMI Methodology 48
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 48
Transport Industry 48
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