Israel Shipping Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 136
The Israel Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Israel's shipping industry.
BMI forecasts that all of Israel's ports will enjoy growth in throughput levels of both containers and total tonnage in 2012 following the 2011 contractions experienced at Haifa and Eilat. We caution that this will be very low, however, given the tough macroeconomic environment in Israel currently. Longer-term projects such as the development of a rail link between the Red Sea port of Eilat and the Mediterranean provide scope for future growth.
Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Haifa total tonnage throughput to grow by 6.4%, and to average 4.6% to 2016.
- 2012 box handling at Haifa will grow by 0.9% to 1.25mn TEUs. Growth projected to average 3.0% to 2016.
- The real value of Israeli foreign trade will grow at 3.9% in 2012 and will average 4.1% to the end of our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends Ashdod Achieves New Record For Container Movements: Israel's Ashdod Port has achieved a new daily record for container movements. During a single 24-hour period in the week ended May 5, the port recorded a 10% increase in container movements to 5,013 containers, compared with the previous record of 4,564 containers, achieved in October 2011. The port handled seven containerships during the period, including a vessel owned by Mitsui OSK Lines.
Zim Increases Its Asia-Europe Exposure: Capacity management on the Asia-Europe trade route has been dealt a further blow, with Israel's Zim Integrated Shipping Services (Zim) announcing plans to relaunch one of its Asia-North Europe services. We fear that this could be the beginning of a trend, as lines start to increase their capacity in preparation for the traditional peak season in the box shipping sector. With the macroeconomic picture depressed by austerity packages we fear this demand will not materialise and the problem of overcapacity will rear its head once more, ending the rate rally and heightening the possibility of another rate war on the route.
Southern Gateway Opens Up For New Markets: The proposed Southern Gateway project has the potential to boost Israel's export capacity, strengthen its trading ties with markets such as China and India, and guard against a potentially strained relationship with the new Egyptian government. However, we highlight that the project may prove a tenuous venture, as indicated by previously de-railed projects in the country - which have contributed to a fraught business environment and stoked tension in a rickety Israeli coalition government. Furthermore, the project could cause anger in Egypt, should the country be deprived of revenues from its Canal cash-cow.
Key Risks To Outlook Continued political turmoil in Israel's Middle Eastern neighbours, especially within Egypt and Syria, offers both up and downside risk to BMI's forecasts for Israel's macroeconomics and port throughputs.
Further weakness in the economies of the US and eurozone could depress external demand and constrain economic growth.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Israel Shipping SWOT 7
Israel Political SWOT 8
Israel Economic SWOT 9
Israel Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Overview – Container Shipping 11
Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses 11
Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates 12
Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided? 18
Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line 23
Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions 26
Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping 32
Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low 32
Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern 33
Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market 35
Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging 37
Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices 42
Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet 44
Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping 46
Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism 46
Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage? 47
More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence 51
2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran 53
Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates 57
Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers 59
Industry Trends And Developments 61
Israel Container Shipping Market Overview 66
Industry Forecast 73
Port of Haifa 73
Port of Eilat 75
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016 77
Trade 78
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016 78
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 78
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 79
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 80
Company Profiles 81
Zim Integrated Shipping Services (Zim) 81
Maersk Line 84
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 90
CMA CGM 94
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) 99
Hapag-Lloyd 04
Evergreen Line 08
APL 12
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 18
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 23
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container) 27
Demographic Outlook 132
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 33
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 34
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 35
Table: Israel's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 35
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