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Russia Autos Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 71
The Russia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Russia's automotive industry.
A significant moderation in Russian new light vehicle (comprising passenger cars and light commercial vehicles) sales growth in the first four months of 2012 has prompted BMI to revise down its 2012 sales growth forecast from 10.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) to nearly 7% y-o-y. Estimates from the Association of European Businesses show that light vehicle sales grew almost 18% y-o-y between January and April 2012, down from a cumulative growth of over 38% y-o-y in 2011.
However, our outlook for vehicle sales growth in the medium and long term remains optimistic. We currently forecast growth of more than 8% y-o-y on average between 2012 and 2016, which will help the market hit the 4mn-unit annual sales mark by the end of the forecast period.
Our outlook for the production segment, meanwhile, remains unchanged. On the back of the domestic demand potential and the consequent increase in investments by OEMs, we expect vehicle production to grow by at least 8% y-o-y during 2012, after an impressive 41.6% y-o-y increase in 2011. With average growth expected to reach around 10% y-o-y on average thereafter, BMI is currently forecasting Russia's total autos production to reach 3.67mn units in 2016, more than three times the level in 2009.
Unsurprisingly, this potential for domestic production growth is attracting a slew of investments from parts suppliers. Canadian auto parts supplier Magna International and Russian carmaker Avtotor are looking to establish an automotive cluster in the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad, in a project estimated to be worth EUR3bn. The development indicates a broader trend in the Russian autos industry where investing firms are seeking to establish their manufacturing bases in regions with existing autos links.
This gives companies easy access to vehicle parts and helps reduce logistics and transportation costs. St Petersberg, Moscow, Nizhniy Novgorod and Togliatti regions have so far emerged as the leading autos manufacturing hub in the country.
Others such as Renault-Nissan Alliance are eyeing to tap the growth potential through local acquisitions and partnerships. In May 2012, Renault-Nissan Alliance and Russian Technologies agreed to create a joint venture (JV) to acquire a majority stake in AvtoVAZ, Russia's largest carmaker. Renault-Nissan plans to invest about US$750 million, which will give the France-Japan car group 67.13% of the JV in mid-2014. Similarly, in March 2012, Germany's Daimler increased its stake in Russian truck maker Kamaz from 15% to 25% plus one. Given that Daimler has been lagging behind its competitors in the Russian new commercial vehicle market, the move can be seen as part of the firm's attempt to strengthen its presence in the market.
Russia continues to lead BMI’s Risk/Reward Ratings this quarter, a position which has been reinforced by the strong vehicle demand and investments from OEMs and parts suppliers.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Russia Autos Industry SWOT 6
Russia Political SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Economic SWOT Analysis 7
Russia Business Environment SWOT Analysis 8
Global Autos Update: End Of First Quarter Brings Both Positive And Negative Revisions As Key Trends 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales (Units), Jan-March 2012 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings 12
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe 16
Regional Overview 17
Audi's Ducati Purchase: Rivalry Wins Over Strategy 17
Macroeconomic Forecast 21
Table: Russia - Economic Activity 24
Industry Forecast Scenario 25
Domestic Sales 25
Table: Russia Autos Sales, 2010-2016 25
Table: Russia Autos Production, 2010-2016 27
Table: Russia Autos Trade, 2010-2016 28
WTO Membership: Beginning Of A New Age? 29
Kaliningrad: The New Autos Hub 31
Table: Major And Developing Automotive Clusters In Russia 33
Passenger Cars – Forecast & Analysis 34
Table: Russia Passenger Car Segment, 2010-2016 34
Company Developments 35
Commercial Vehicles – Forecast & Analysis 43
Table: Russia Commercial Vehicle Segment: Historical data and Forecast, 2010-2016 43
Company News 45
Company News 50
Competing Tyres 53
Company Monitor Toyota Europe: Not Discouraged By The Challenges 56
Company Profiles 60
Taganrog Automobile Plant 63
Ford Motor 64
General Motors Company (GM) 65
Demographic Outlook 66
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 66
Table: Russia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 67
Table: Russia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 68
Table: Russia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 68
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69