Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 68
The Czech Republic Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Czech Republic's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: Refining capacity looks set to shrink thanks to unfavourable economics, while long-term exploration upside potential hangs on preliminary interest in shale gas permits and increased risk that the government will delay shale activity for two years. Overall, there is relative energy stability in the Czech Republic, with oil and gas imports rising slowly but steadily.
The main trends and developments we highlight for the Czech Republic’s Oil and Gas sector are:
- The Czech Republic's environment ministry is looking to freeze shale gas exploration for two years to allow it to draft and implement new legislation. The ministry aims to establish a clear legal and technical framework so that any disputes that arise during shale gas exploration can be resolved under sound arbitration procedures, according to Environment Minister Tomáš Chalupa. Several domestic and foreign companies had earlier applied for shale gas exploration permits, including the UK's Cuadrilla Resources and Basgas Energia Czech, a unit of Australia-based Basgas. Domestic upstream company MND has also applied for an exploration permit.
- Consumption of natural gas fell about 10% during 2011, dampened by decline in manufacturing and a temperate climate, the country's union of gas utilities said in a statement reported in January 2012 by Bloomberg. The fuel is finding increased residential/commercial use and may displace coal in future power generation projects. BMI is assuming overall demand will rise from an estimated 8.5bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to around 10.0bcm by 2016, then reach 10.8bcm by 2021. Carpathian Resources has identified potentially gas-bearing structures for future drilling; however, we do not expect to see domestic gas production rise above 0.2bcm over the medium term.
- German-owned RWE Transgas is taking steps to sell its Czech long-distance gas network operator Net4Gas by the end of 2012, an RWE Transgas spokesman said in February 2012. Daily Hospodarske Noviny cited an unnamed source as saying about 10 companies are expected to bid in the RWE Transgas tender.
- In 2011, the Czech Republic will have consumed an estimated 203,600 barrels per day (b/d) of oil. Using the current BMI GDP growth forecasts, it is unlikely that short-term oil demand will increase dramatically. Assuming an average rise in consumption of no more than 1.5% per annum, below the CEE norm, demand will reach 222,400b/d in 2016, then 242,000b/d by 2021 – implying end-period imports of around 233,000b/d.
The estimated cost of crude oil imports in 2012 is US$8.04bn, reflecting an assumed OPEC basket oil price of US$111.47 per barrel (bbl). By 2016, crude imports will cost an estimated US$7.69bn. The cost of importing some 9.8bcm of gas by 2016 is forecast at US$4.84bn. The combined crude oil and natural gas import bill for the Czech Republic in 2016 is put at US$12.53bn.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Czech Republic Oil & Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (’000 b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 14
Czech Republic Energy Market Overview 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 20
Table: Czech Republic’s Oil & Gas Historical & Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 20
Table: Czech Republic’s Oil & Gas Production Forecasts, 2014-2021 21
Oil And Gas Reserves 22
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
Refining And Oil Products Trade 23
Revenues/Import Costs 23
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 24
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 25
Oil Refineries 25
Table: Refineries In Czech Republic 25
Service Stations 25
Oil Storage Facilities 25
Oil Pipelines 26
Gas Storage Facilities 26
Gas Pipelines 27
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Czech Upstream Rating – Overview 35
Czech Upstream Rating – Rewards 35
Czech Upstream Rating – Risks 35
Czech Downstream Rating – Overview 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Executive Summary 36
Table: Key Players – Czech Oil And Gas Sector 37
Overview/State Role 37
Licensing And Regulation 37
Government Policy 38
International Energy Relations 38
Table: Key Upstream Player 39
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Monitor 40
Unipetrol 40
Shell Czech Republic 42
OMV CR 44
Eni Ceská Republika 46
Moravské Naftové Doly (MND) 48
PKN Orlen – Summary 50
Carpathian Resources – Summary 50
MERO – Summary 50
Gazprom – Summary 50
Others – Summary 51
Central And Eastern Europe – Regional Appendix 52
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 52
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 52
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 53
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 54
Table: Refining Capacity Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 54
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 55
Table: Gas Consumption Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 55
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 56
Table: Gas Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 56
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 57
Table: LNG Gas Exports Forecasts (bcm) 58
Table: LNG Gas Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 58
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 59
Glossary Of Terms 60
Table: Glossary Of Terms 60
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 62
Ratings Overview 62
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 63
Indicators 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 63
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 64
BMI Methodology 66
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 66
Energy Industry 66
Cross checks 67
Sources 67
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