Chile Shipping Report Q3 2012

The Chile Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's shipping industry.

BMI maintains its broadly positive outlook on the Chilean shipping and port sector for Q312. We caution, however, that volume growth is expected to slow somewhat in line with our view that the Chilean economy's robust economic growth is likely to continue cooling in the coming quarters. We believe that declining exports, combined with a moderation of private consumption and gross fixed investment, will weigh on Chile's headline growth in 2012. Given the strength of the authorities' growth-supporting policy arsenal, however, we are happy to remain above consensus, forecasting real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2012.

We see the domestic consumer demand slowing, and this will have a knock-on negative effect on demand for imports of containerised goods. Chile's external demand story is also likely to weaken, and we still believe that import growth will outpace that of exports, putting downside pressure on volumes going through dry bulk terminals. This could be exacerbated if our view for a slowdown in Chinese economic growth plays out. Given the significance of copper exports to Chile's economy, any significant drop in copper export demand - in particular from Asia, which comprises around 65% of demand - or a large correction in copper prices, could push net exports further into negative territory and pose significant downside risk to our port throughput forecasts for the country.

Headline Industry Data
- 2012 Port of Valparaíso tonnage throughput forecast to grow 13.5%, with average annual growth of 12% the next five years.

- 2012 Port of San Antonio tonnage throughput forecast to grow 7.6% with average annual growth of 7.5% the next five years.

- 2012 Port of Valparaíso twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) throughput forecast to grow 16.3%, with average annual growth of 13.9% the next five years.

- 2012 Port of San Antonio TEU throughput forecast to grow 9.7%, with average annual growth of 9.2% the next five years.

Key Industry Trends CSAV Hopes Capital Injection And Route Sharing Will Save The Day, But Bleak 2012 Ahead CSAV's financial woes look set to continue, with the Chilean company reporting an astronomical loss for 2011. The company's disappointing results were down to low rates and high fuel costs. CSAV will be hoping to reverse its fortunes through route-sharing agreements in 2012, but BMI believes the container shipping sector's woes are set to continue for some time to come due to continued overcapacity and declining demand.

Strikes Present Downside Risk To Otherwise Positive Chilean Port Outlook BMI believes that labour disputes continue to present a downside risk to our otherwise positive outlook for Chilean ports. The country's combination of slowly rising real wages and high corporate profits has led to growing worker resentment and strike action becoming more widespread. Having been beset by work stoppages throughout 2011, Chile's port sector is to see its first strike of the year in February.

Risks To Outlook The main downside risk to our outlook for the Chilean port sector is the possibility of a hard landing in the Chinese economy. This would result in a steep fall off in Chinese demand for Chilean dry bulk exports such as copper, hitting port throughput badly.

A further concern is that the country will not be able to improve its port infrastructure in order to keep up with demand. Infrastructure deficits limit expansion. If Chile does not improve efficiency and capacity there is risk that, as its ports begin to reach the limits of their capacity coming up to 2014, importers will look elsewhere for their supplies. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Chile Shipping SWOT 7

Chile Political SWOT 8

Chile Economic SWOT 9

Chile Business Environment SWOT 10

Global Overview – Container Shipping 11

Executive Summary: Rate Decline Risk, Threat Of Another Year Of Losses 11

Slowing Demand A Major Threat To Freight Rates 12

Carriers Thinking Outside Box On Overcapacity, Can Rate War Be Avoided? 18

Lines Must Tackle High Bunker Prices To Avoid Impact On 2012 Bottom Line 23

Evergreen's Order Raises Questions For Future Of Box Fleet Expansions 26

Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping 32

Executive Summary: Rates Struggling To Recover From 25-Year Low 32

Bleak Demand Outlook Gives Cause For Concern 33

Lines Withhold Payments As Shipping Struggles In Depressed Market 35

Vale's Valemax Woes Continue, Vessel Values And Demand Plunging 37

Orders Continue As Lines Take Advantage Of Bargain Basement Prices 41

Record Dry Bulk Scrapping Levels No Match For Global Fleet 44

Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping 46

Executive Summary: Bearish View Maintained Despite Industry Optimism 46

Will Increased Asian Crude Imports Offset Excess Tonnage? 46

More Pain For US Tanker Operators Despite Investor Confidence 51

2012 Political Impact On Crude Oil Shipping Emanating From Iran 53

Tanker Operators Scrap In Desperate Attempt To Shore Up Rates 57

Tanker Pools To Grow As Operators Seek Safety In Numbers 58

Industry Trends And Developments 61

Chile Container Shipping Market Overview 65

Industry Forecast 70

The Port Of San Antonio 70

The Port Of Valparaíso 72
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016 76

Trade 77
Table: Trade Overview, 2008-2016 77
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2008-2016 77
Table: Main Import Partners (US$mn) 78
Table: Main Export Partners (US$mn) 79

Company Profiles 80

CSAV 80

Compañía Chilena de Navegación Interoceánica SA (CCNI) 84

Maersk Line 86

Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 92

CMA CGM 96

COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) 01

Hapag-Lloyd 06

Evergreen Line 10

APL 14

China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 20

Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 25

Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container) 29

Demographic Outlook 134
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 35
Table: Chile's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 36
Table: Chile's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 37
Table: Chile's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 37