Iran Metals Report Q3 2012

  • ID: 2199926
  • June 2012
  • Region: Iran
  • 49 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Iran Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Iran's metals industry.

BMI’s Q312 Iran Metals Report examines the impact international sanctions are having on short-term domestic market trends as well as long-term investment outcomes.

The report examines how producers are dealing with restrictions on access to finance and the lack of hard currency and also explores the impact of the increasingly uncertain macroeconomic environment on domestic consumption and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term. The report also analyses the government’s ambitious growth plans and questions whether it will realise these targets.

In the first four months of 2012, Iranian crude steel output grew 5.2% y-o-y to 4.75mn tonnes (mnt), a slowdown from the 8.7% growth reported in 2011 but still an upward trend in an increasingly adverse situation. Nevertheless, the industry is failing to meet government expectations. According to government figures, output in the 2011/12 READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Iran Economic SWOT 6

Iran Business Environment SWOT 6

Global Overview 7
Table: BMI Steel Forecasts 7
Table: Steel Price Data, (US$/TONNE) 12

Commodity Strategy – Monthly Metals Update 12
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 21

Industry Forecasts 22

Steel 22
Table: Iran’s Steel Industry – Historical & Forecast Data, 2008-2016 (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated) 23
Table: Iran’s Steel Industry – Historical Data, 2003-2011 (’000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated) 24

Aluminium 25

Macroeconomic Forecast 25

Economy To Contract as Sanctions Bite 25
Table: Iran – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 29

Competitive Landscape 30
Table: Production & Sales By Producer 30

International Sanctions 31

Recent Developments 32

Company Profiles 35

Mobarakeh Steel Company 35

Esfahan Steel Company (ESCO) 35

Global Assumptions, Q312 36
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 36

Developed States 37
Table: Developed States’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 38

Emerging Markets 38
Table: Emerging Markets’ Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 39

Consensus 40
Table: Real GDP Growth Consensus Forecasts, 2012 & 2013 40

Country Snapshot: Iran Demographic Data 41

Section 1: Population 41
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 41
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 41

Section 2: Education And Healthcare 41
Table: Education, 2002-2005 41
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 42

Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 42
Table: Employment Indicators, 1996-2005 42
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 43
Table: Average Annual Manufacturing Wages, 2000-2012 43

BMI Methodology 44

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 44

Cross Checks 44

Demographic Outlook 45
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 46
Table: Iran's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 46
Table: Iran's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 47
Table: Iran's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 48

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