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Cameroon Agribusiness Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 49
The Cameroon Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Cameroon's agribusiness service.
BMI View: 2011/12 is set to be a good year for the Cameroonian agriculture sector, with most commodities expected to show production growth. The notable exceptions to this trend are cocoa, as this year's harvest having been hit by pests and inclement weather, and corn, which is still recovering from a collapse in production in 2011. All commodities are expected to grow through to 2016, with coffee the standout performer. Cameroon's cocoa and coffee industries are both benefiting from increased investment, improved industry fundamentals and better macroeconomic conditions. The government is espected to continue its drive to keep corn imports down by focusing on increasing output. Demand growth for agriculture commodities will be supported by an economy that is forecast to expand at an average annual rate of 4.4% to 2016, on the back of a well-established food and drinks sector and a positive consumer outlook.
Key Industry Forecasts
- Corn production growth to 2016: 45.2% to 1.66mn tonnes. Domestic production will just about manage to keep pace with demand.
- Coffee production growth to 2015/16: 74% to 1.06mn 60kg bags. Production will recover from 2011's slump and the sector will benefit from investment in pesticides, fertilizers and infrastructure.
- Cocoa production growth to 2015/16: 6.5% to 245,000 tonnes. Government and private sector investment will improve yields and quality leading to increased exports.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2015/16: 32.4% to 278,000 tonnes. Steadily rising GDP and a fast expanding food and drink sector will support strong growth.
Key Macroeconomic Forecasts
- Cameroon's real GDP growth 2012: 4.3% (up from 3.7% in 2011; forecast to grow at an average 4.4% between 2011 and 2016).
- Cameroon's consumer price inflation 2012: 2.5% (same as in 2011; forecast to grow at an average 2.7% between 2011 and 2016).
- Cameroon's unemployment rate 2012: 7.6%. Industry Developments Increased demand for sugar is putting pressure on Cameroon's main producer, Cameroon Sugar Producing Company (SOSUCAM), who have so far failed to significantly increase domestic supplies. This has led to increased imports from Brazil and other major producing countries. In the longer term, this climb in demand looks to be encouraging investment and competition in the sector. SOSUCAM will invest US$119mn within the next five years to increase output, according to the company's general manager Louis Yinda. Yinda also said this investment would increase the company's annual production from 120,000 tonnes to 170,000 tonnes. Further investments in SOSUCAM are expected as its parent company, SOMDIAA, announced plans in May to invest EUR320mn in Africa's sugar sector as part of its 2012-2017 development plan for the region. The entry of Forzi Sugar into the market, with the prospect of a XAF10.0bn (US$20.69) investment in the construction of a sugar mill in Kumba, could help open up a hitherto monopolistic sector.
Established as one of West Africa's most-developed consumer sectors, Cameroon's economy has performed steadily over the past decade with real GDP growth averaging 3.7% between 2004 and 2010. Per capita GDP of about US$1,300 and a relatively well-developed foor and drink industry suggest Cameroon is further along than a number of regional economies, though this is relative.
Executive Summary 4
SWOT Analysis 6
Cameroon Agriculture SWOT 6
Cameroon Business Environment SWOT 7
Supply Demand Analysis 8
Cameroon Grains Outlook 8
Table: Cameroon Corn Production And Consumption, 2011-2016 8
Table: Cameroon Corn Production And Consumption, 2008-2012 9
Cameroon Sugar Outlook 11
Table: Cameroon Sugar Production And Consumption, 2011-2016 11
Table: Cameroon Sugar Production And Consumption, 2008-2012 13
Cameroon Coffee Outlook 14
Table: Cameroon Coffee Production And Consumption, 2011-2016 15
Table: Cameroon Coffee Production And Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Cameroon Cocoa Outlook 19
Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production And Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Cameroon Cocoa Production And Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Commodity Price Analysis 24
Cocoa: Signs Of Life 24
Coffee: Holding Key Support 26
Palm Oil: Uptrend Intact 28
Sugar: Watching Brazilian Yields 29
Cotton: Downside Risks 31
Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 32
Monthly Grains Update 33
Wheat: Upside Risks Materialising 34
Corn: Moderation In Place 36
Soybean: Looking Weak 38
Rice: Temporary Strength 40
Commodity Performance 41
Cameroon Demographic Outlook 42
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 43
Table: Cameroon's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 44
Table: Cameroon's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 45
Table: Cameroon's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 45
Our Forecast Modelling
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 46