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Pakistan Defence and Security Report Q3 2012
Description:
The Pakistan Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Pakistan's defence and security industry.
BMI’s Pakistan Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country’s strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report also examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that Pakistan remains highly vulnerable by virtue of a combination of circumstances: political instability, economic malaise and Islamist militancy.
BMI considers relations with four countries – Afghanistan, China, India and the United States – to be of paramount important to Pakistan’s geopolitical outlook. China remains Pakistan’s key defence ally, while relations with India have shown some recent signs of improvement, especially on the trade side. However, ties with Kabul remain strained, and the US relationship – once so important in the wake of 9/11 – is still at rock bottom six months after an American air strike inadvertently resulted in the deaths of 28 Pakistani soldiers. Having said that, in mid-May Islamabad was starting to suggest that it might now be ready to start mending fences in its relationship with Washington, with economics as much as security the motivating factor.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The latest developments in Pakistan’s rocky relationship are reviewed in detail. These include the visit of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) commanders to Pakistan in March, and Pakistani plans to attend the NATO summit in Chicago in late May. Islamabad has also signalled its intention to reopen the NATO supply route to Afghanistan after a six-month hiatus. However, continuing US drone strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region continue to cause severe tension.
- The instability of Pakistan’s political establishment has continued, with Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani being found guilty on contempt of court charges, but still managing to remain in post after only a token custodial sentence was imposed. His opponents continue to try to unseat him, however, and the instability in Islamabad has ongoing implications for the country’s economy and security.
- Relations with India are relatively upbeat, with concerted efforts being made on both sides to normalise economic ties. In terms of security, the deaths of 129 Pakistani soldiers in an avalanche in the disputed Siachen region led to calls from civilian and military leaders in Pakistan for the area to be demilitarised. India is considering the proposal, but will require assurances that Islamabad will not try to take strategic advantage of any withdrawal.
- Pakistan’s reliance on China for defence materiel continues, with a new Chinese-built fast attack craft for the Pakistan Navy arriving during Q2. A first export order for their jointly developed JF-17 fighter aircraft remains elusive, however.
BMI’s Pakistan Defence & Security Report for Q312 examines the country’s strategic position in the Asian region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report also examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that Pakistan remains highly vulnerable by virtue of a combination of circumstances: political instability, economic malaise and Islamist militancy.
BMI considers relations with four countries – Afghanistan, China, India and the United States – to be of paramount important to Pakistan’s geopolitical outlook. China remains Pakistan’s key defence ally, while relations with India have shown some recent signs of improvement, especially on the trade side. However, ties with Kabul remain strained, and the US relationship – once so important in the wake of 9/11 – is still at rock bottom six months after an American air strike inadvertently resulted in the deaths of 28 Pakistani soldiers. Having said that, in mid-May Islamabad was starting to suggest that it might now be ready to start mending fences in its relationship with Washington, with economics as much as security the motivating factor.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The latest developments in Pakistan’s rocky relationship are reviewed in detail. These include the visit of the US Central Command (CENTCOM) and NATO International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) commanders to Pakistan in March, and Pakistani plans to attend the NATO summit in Chicago in late May. Islamabad has also signalled its intention to reopen the NATO supply route to Afghanistan after a six-month hiatus. However, continuing US drone strikes in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) region continue to cause severe tension.
- The instability of Pakistan’s political establishment has continued, with Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gillani being found guilty on contempt of court charges, but still managing to remain in post after only a token custodial sentence was imposed. His opponents continue to try to unseat him, however, and the instability in Islamabad has ongoing implications for the country’s economy and security.
- Relations with India are relatively upbeat, with concerted efforts being made on both sides to normalise economic ties. In terms of security, the deaths of 129 Pakistani soldiers in an avalanche in the disputed Siachen region led to calls from civilian and military leaders in Pakistan for the area to be demilitarised. India is considering the proposal, but will require assurances that Islamabad will not try to take strategic advantage of any withdrawal.
- Pakistan’s reliance on China for defence materiel continues, with a new Chinese-built fast attack craft for the Pakistan Navy arriving during Q2. A first export order for their jointly developed JF-17 fighter aircraft remains elusive, however.
Contents:
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Security SWOT 7
Pakistan Defence Industry SWOT 9
Pakistan Political SWOT 10
Pakistan Economic SWOT 11
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 12
Global Political Outlook 13
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 13
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 13
Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 17
Wild Cards To Watch 21
South Asia Security Overview 24
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 24
Security Risk Analysis 40
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 40
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 41
Political Overview 42
Domestic Politics 42
No Gilani Appeal: PPP Risks More Political Fallout 42
Foreign Policy 44
A Normalisation Of Pakistan-US Relations? 44
Table: Pakistan’s Political Overview 47
Long-Term Political Outlook 49
Instability To Prevail, But Outright Collapse Unlikely 49
Table: Scenario Matrix – Evolution Of State 52
Table: Scenario Matrix – Centrifugal Versus Centripetal Forces 53
Security Overview 54
Internal Security Situation 54
External Security Situation 61
Armed Forces And Government Spending 65
Armed Forces 65
Deployments And Exercises 66
Table: Pakistan’s Deployments 67
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 67
Table: Pakistan’s Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal 70
Nuclear Developments 70
Table: Exports From Pakistan 71
Market Overview 73
Arms Trade Overview 74
Industry Trends And Developments 75
Procurement Trends And Developments 77
Industry Forecast Scenario 79
Armed Forces 79
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Personnel, 2000-2008 (’000, unless otherwise stated) 79
Table: Pakistan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 79
Defence Expenditure 79
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 80
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Expenditure – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 81
Defence Trade 81
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 81
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 82
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 82
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 83
Macroeconomic Forecast 84
Poor Data Suggests Continued Macro Weakness 84
Company Profiles 87
Air Weapons Complex 87
Dr AQ Khan Laboratories 88
Heavy Industries Taxila 89
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex 90
Pakistan Ordnance Factories 91
Pakistan Demographic Outlook 92
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 93
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 94
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 95
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 95
BMI Methodology 96
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 96
Defence Industry 96
Sources 97
SWOT Analysis 7
Pakistan Security SWOT 7
Pakistan Defence Industry SWOT 9
Pakistan Political SWOT 10
Pakistan Economic SWOT 11
Pakistan Business Environment SWOT 12
Global Political Outlook 13
Major Risks Looming In 2012-2013 13
Global Flashpoints: Eurozone, Iran, Syria, Afghanistan, Korean Peninsula 13
Table: Election Timetable, Q312-Q113 17
Wild Cards To Watch 21
South Asia Security Overview 24
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 24
Security Risk Analysis 40
Table: Asia Pacific Regional Security Ratings 40
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 41
Political Overview 42
Domestic Politics 42
No Gilani Appeal: PPP Risks More Political Fallout 42
Foreign Policy 44
A Normalisation Of Pakistan-US Relations? 44
Table: Pakistan’s Political Overview 47
Long-Term Political Outlook 49
Instability To Prevail, But Outright Collapse Unlikely 49
Table: Scenario Matrix – Evolution Of State 52
Table: Scenario Matrix – Centrifugal Versus Centripetal Forces 53
Security Overview 54
Internal Security Situation 54
External Security Situation 61
Armed Forces And Government Spending 65
Armed Forces 65
Deployments And Exercises 66
Table: Pakistan’s Deployments 67
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 67
Table: Pakistan’s Nuclear-Capable Ballistic Missile Arsenal 70
Nuclear Developments 70
Table: Exports From Pakistan 71
Market Overview 73
Arms Trade Overview 74
Industry Trends And Developments 75
Procurement Trends And Developments 77
Industry Forecast Scenario 79
Armed Forces 79
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Personnel, 2000-2008 (’000, unless otherwise stated) 79
Table: Pakistan’s Manpower Available For Military Services, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 79
Defence Expenditure 79
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 80
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Expenditure – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 81
Defence Trade 81
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 81
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 82
Table: Pakistan’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 82
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 83
Macroeconomic Forecast 84
Poor Data Suggests Continued Macro Weakness 84
Company Profiles 87
Air Weapons Complex 87
Dr AQ Khan Laboratories 88
Heavy Industries Taxila 89
Pakistan Aeronautical Complex 90
Pakistan Ordnance Factories 91
Pakistan Demographic Outlook 92
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 93
Table: Pakistan's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 94
Table: Pakistan's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 95
Table: Pakistan's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 95
BMI Methodology 96
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 96
Defence Industry 96
Sources 97
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