Philippines Insurance Report Q3 2012

The Philippines Insurance Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, insurance associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Philippines's insurance industry.

The Philippines Insurance report considers the prospects for both life and non-life insurers in the country.

BMI remains of the view that how the Philippines’ insurance sector develops through 2012 will provide a useful indicator of overall trends in political, business and economic risk in the country. The statistic that we would highlight is that the trade association, and BMI, forecast life insurance premiums in 2012 that are 80% higher than those of 2009. It appears that there is a very high probability that the segment will emerge from three years of near stagnation in terms of premiums. Various commentators are excited about the prospects for micro-insurance in the Philippines. While we accept that growth in the segment may be driven over the coming years by an increase in the number of first time users, we continue to believe that the expansion will be driven mainly by the initiatives that are undertaken by particular companies. The segment is dominated by Philam Life, the local subsidiary of AIA, along with the local offshoots of Manulife, AXA, Sun Life Financial and Prudential plc. These are all companies with regional (or global) scale, strong brand names, a very long-standing commitment to both the Philippines and Asia Pacific, capital and tolerance of emerging markets risk. As we explain in this report, these companies are developing by enlarging their existing distribution channels, improving the productivity of distribution channels, introducing new products or developing new partnerships. Crucially, though, households in the Philippines that can afford to provide for the future are increasingly enthusiastic about taking on long-term relationships with major life insurance companies.

The Philippines remains at an early stage of a transition from a situation where the non-life segment consists of dozens of tiny, and under-capitalised firms. As is the case in some other South East Asian countries (and in the Middle East) it is not obvious that many of these companies have a clear competence in insurance. The slippage in non-life penetration over recent years is a clear sign of a lack of discipline in pricing risks. Minimum capital requirements are being increased – as a part of the preparation for 2015, when the arrival of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Free Trade Agreement (AFTA) could result in much higher competition from other companies that are based elsewhere in the region. In practice, we are not certain that other ASEAN-based non-life insurers will see the opportunities in the Philippines as being more attractive than those at home. However, we remain of the view that it would be extraordinary if there is not a wave of mergers and acquisitions over the next two years.

Over the last quarter, BMI has made the following changes:
- The report incorporates BMI’s latest forecasts for the Philippine economy in 2012.
- The report takes into account the formation of the Sun Life Grepa Financial joint venture (JV), in which Canada’s Sun Life Financial has a 49% stake and management control.

- Our analysis incorporates a considerable amount of detailed comment published by the major life insurers, in some cases in relation to Q112. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5
Table: Total Premiums, 2008-2016 5

Key Insights And Key Risks 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Philippines Insurance Industry SWOT 7

Philippines Political SWOT 8

Philippines Economic SWOT 9

Philippines Business Environment SWOT 9

Life Sector 10

Asia Pacific Life Sector Overview 10
Table: Asia Pacific Life Premiums, 2008-2016 (US$mn) 10

Philippines Life Sector Update 15

Life Industry Forecast Scenario 17
Table: Life Premiums, 2008-2016 17

Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections 18

Population 18
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Demographics, 2008-2016 18

Non-Life Sector 20

Asia Pacific Non-Life Sector Overview 20
Table: Asia Pacific Non-Life Premiums, 2008-2016 20

Philippines Non-Life Sector Update 22

Non-Life Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Non-Life Premiums, 2008-2016 23

Growth Drivers And Risk Management Projections 24

Macroeconomic Outlook 24
Table: Philippines Economic Activity, 2011-2016 27

Political Stability Outlook 27
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings 29

Healthcare 29

Health Insurance 31

Epidemiology 32
Table: Insurance Key Drivers, Disability-Adjusted Life Years, 2008-2016 34

Motor 35

Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Table: Philippines’ Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Table: Asia Pacific Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings 38

Competitive Landscape 40

Competitive Landscape Analysis 40

Major Players In The Philippines’ Insurance Sector 43
Table: Ranking Of Non-Life Insurance Companies By Gross Written Premiums, 2010 45
Table: Ranking Of Life Insurance Companies By Gross Written Premiums, 2010 46

Company Profiles 47

Local Company Profiles 47

Insular Life 47

Malayan Insurance/Grepalife Financial 48

Regional Company Profiles 49

Ageas 49

AEGON 51

AIA Group Limited 52

Allianz 54

Aviva 56

AXA 57

BNP Paribas Cardif 59

Chartis 60

HSBC Insurance 62

Liberty Mutual 64

Manulife 65

MetLife ALICO 66

Prudential Financial 69

Prudential plc 71

QBE 73

RSA 75

Sun Life Financial 76

The Principal Financial Group 77

Zurich Insurance Group 78

Demographic Outlook 80
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 81
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 82
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 83
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 83

BMI Methodology 84

Insurance Risk/Reward Ratings 85
Table: Insurance Risk/Reward Indicators And Rationale 86
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 87