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Venezuela Consumer Electronics Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 48
The Venezuela Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, electronics associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Venezuela's consumer electronics industry..
BMI expects the Venezuelan consumer electronics market to grow by around 7% in 2012, but the precarious economic environment will inhibit IT investment. PC market growth has held up relatively well but has lagged other countries. Businesses remain cautious while consumers face inflationary pressures and the resulting erosion of real wages. The threat of further currency devaluation is real, although this would most likely not be until after elections scheduled for 2012. However, there remain areas of opportunity, with continued IT investment by small and medium-sized enterprises due in part to a government tax subsidy. The energy, retail and financial services sectors should remain among key IT spending verticals.
Headline Expenditure Projections Computer hardware sales: US$1.2bn in 2011 to US$1.3bn in 2012, +6.7% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged. Given a difficult trading context, the main long-term sales driver is greater affordability, partly as a result of cheap computer programmes. AV sales: US$1.0bn in 2011 to US$1.1bn in 2012, +6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but Venezuela’s digital migration should drive demand for flat-screen TV sets.
Handset sales: US$1.3bn in 2011 to US$1.4bn in 2012, +8% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to analyst modification, with local production of handsets more than doubling in 2011.
Business Environment Rating: Venezuela’s score was 37.3 out of 100.0; low Country Risk and Market Risk scores of 28.2 and 35.0 exacerbating the effect of relatively low Potential Returns.
Venezuela took last place in our latest Americas Consumer Electronics Business Environment Ratings table, but if there was a change in the country’s policy mix after the 2012 elections – not our core scenario – the country’s ranking would have the potential to rise over time.
Key Trends & Developments
- Venezuelan computer shipments should record positive growth in 2012, due partly to the government's affordable computer programmes, computers for education and more local production of inexpensive computers. However, this growth is forecast to remain in single digits.
- 2012 is a significant year, as it marks the deadline for the government’s plans to complete implementation of digital TV. Sales of flat-screen sets will be an area of opportunity as consumers upgrade their old models to digital. The government launched the digital TV programme in five cities during the first quarter of 2011. In March 2012, Venezuela announced that it would purchase 300,000 digital TV boxes and 12 DTT transmitters from Argentina.
- Venezuela has a reputation for being one of the more promising markets for smartphones in the region. Regional telecoms giant Telefónica has said that 70% of its regional BlackBerry sales were in the Venezuelan market. Operator promotions are a key driver as they look to attract high-end subscribers and boost data revenues. In 2011, the launch of more models based on the Android operating system helped to boost sales in the high-end phone segment.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Venezuela Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 7
Venezuela Political SWOT 8
Venezuela Economic SWOT 9
Venezuela Business Environment SWOT 9
Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: Americas Risk/Reward Ratings, Q312 12
Consumer Electronics Market 13
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 14
AV Devices 17
Table: AV Sales,2009-2016 17
Mobile Handsets 20
Table: Mobile Communications,2009-2016 20
Consumer Electronics Industry 24
Retail And Distribution 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Consumer Electronics Market 29
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 30
Industry Developments 32
Macroeconomic Forecast 33
Table: Venezuela – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 35
Competitive Landscape 36
Company Profiles 41
Venezuela de Industria Tecnologica (VIT) 41
Demographic Outlook 42
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 43
Table: Venezuela's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 44
Table: Venezuela's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 45
Table: Venezuela's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 45
BMI Methodology 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 46
Electronics Industry 46