Republic Of Congo Oil and Gas Report Q3 2012
Business Monitor International, June 2012, Pages: 65
The Republic of Congo Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Republic of Congo's oil and gas industry.
BMI View: With production in terminal decline and few new projects expected to come onstream over the next decade, the Republic of Congo (RoC)’s upstream oil outlook does not inspire much confidence. However, Eni’s vast oil sands project in the country’s south could offer some long-term opportunities despite what is otherwise a rather bleak outlook. If it is realised, this would be the first such project on the continent.
Main trends and developments we highlight for the RoC’s Oil and Gas sector are as follows: - BMI expects oil production to be in continuous decline throughout the decade due to most of the production coming from mature fields and from the lack of new projects coming onstream. We see production falling from a peak of 309,000 barrels per day (b/d) in 2012 to 297,000b/d in 2016 before hitting 283,000b/d in 2021. This stable decline is explained by a small number of new projects coming onstream, offset by a steady decline rate.
- Meanwhile, consumption of crude is likely to rise at an average of 5.10% rate from 2011 to 2021. We therefore anticipate that consumption will rise from an estimated 13,000b/d in 2011 to 21,400b/d by 2021.
- BMI forecasts that gas production will increase from 0.93bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 3.91bcm by 2021, thanks to a boom in domestic demand. This will increase the incentive for a better use of associated gas resources in order to avoid resorting to imports to satisfy local consumption.
- Gas demand is set to rise at an average growth rate of 14.85%. This high rate is explained by high macroeconomic growth, with nominal GDP expected to grow at an average of nearly 13.67% for the same period. Domestic gas consumption will also be boosted by the implementation of enhanced oil recovery techniques which are to include the reinjection of gas in mature fields to improve natural lift.
- Congolese crude reserves are likely to start declining from their 1.60bn barrels (bbl) peak of the 2007-2011 period. Unless substantial discoveries are made, new deepwater basins opened or oil sands resources proven to be commercially viable, current discovery rates would see reserves falling to 1.51bn bbl in 2016 and then to 1.28bn bbl by 2021. With regards to gas, given the lack of investment in the sector, reserves are likely to continue to remain stuck at their 1997 level of 90.61bcm.
- In the downstream sector, the authorities have struggled to modernise CORAF, the country’s sole refinery. Despite an US$868mn investment deal signed with Saudi Arabia’s Rawabi Holding Company in February 2008 to increase capacity at the plant to 100,000b/d, there has been no sign of upgrade at the plant. We have not factored any expansion in our forecasts and we see capacity stagnating at 21,000b/d with an average utilisation rate of 66.87% throughout the decade.
The RoC’s dependence on energy prices leads to high volatility in the country’s export revenues. Our assumptions of tight supply due to booming demand in emerging markets is clearly an opportunity for the country. As a result, we assume OPEC basket oil prices to increase from US$107.52 per barrel (bbl) in 2011 to US$111.47/bbl in 2012, thus creating an upside risk for the Congolese macroeconomic outlook.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Republic Of Congo Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecast, 2010-2016 (‘000 b/d) 14
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Republic Of Congo Energy Market Overview 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Oil And Gas Reserves 21
Table: Republic of Congo Oil & Gas – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 22
Table: Republic of Congo Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 23
Oil Supply And Demand 24
Gas Supply And Demand 26
Export Revenues 27
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 27
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 29
Oil Refineries 29
LNG 29
Service Stations 29
Oil Terminals/Ports 29
Oil Pipelines 30
Regional And Country Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Upstream Risk / Reward Ratings 34
Table: Downstream Risk / Reward Ratings 35
Congo Upstream Rating – Overview 35
Congo Upstream Rating – Rewards 35
Congo Upstream Rating – Risks 36
Congo Downstream Rating – Overview 36
Congo Downstream Rating – Rewards 36
Congo Downstream Rating – Risks 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Executive Summary 37
Table: Key Players In The Republic Of Congo’s Energy Sector 38
Overview/State Role 38
Licensing And Regulation 38
Government Policy 38
International Energy Relations 39
Table: Key Upstream Players 39
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Monitor 40
Total Congo 40
Eni 43
Société Nationale Des Pétroles Du Congo – Summary 46
Perenco – Summary 46
CORAF – Summary 46
Lundin Petroleum – Summary 47
PA Resources – Summary 47
Murphy Oil – Summary 47
Vitol – Summary 48
Maurel et Prom – Summary 48
SOCO International – Summary 48
Panoro Energy – Summary 49
Table: Oil Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) 50
Table: Oil Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 50
Table: Oil Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (‘000b/d) 51
Table: Oil Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 52
Table: Refining Capacity Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 52
Table: Refining Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (‘000b/d) 53
Table: Gas Consumption Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 53
Table: Gas Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 54
Table: Gas Production Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 55
Table: Gas Production Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 55
LNG Net Exports Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 56
LNG Net Exports Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 56
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 57
Glossary Of Terms 58
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 59
Ratings Overview 59
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 60
Indicators 60
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 60
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 61
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Energy Industry 63
Cross checks 64
Sources 64
Customers who bought this item also bought
All rights reserved. © Copyright 2013 Research and Markets WWW5
Terms and Conditions Privacy Policy Publishers Employment Opportunities Site Map Link to us Webmaster Affiliate Network
